In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, the Bench Jockeys have released odds for the 2016 nomination.  We will keep this tracker up to date as entrants declare and drop out and as political fortunes rise and fall in the GOP.

This year we have the added pleasure of offering the odds (albeit a bookmaker’s dream) for those vying for the nomination on the Democrat ticket.  Hint:  Hillary Clinton is a presently at 1:7 which will only drift away from a “sure thing” if something surfaces from the investigations involving Benghazi or the foreign government money accepted by the Clinton Foundation. 

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Democrat and Republican races for the White House. 

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the 2016 nomination.

Democrats

* Registered Ind. may run as a Dem.    

♤ Odds updated 3/7/15

Republicans

 ♢ Odds updated 3/7/15

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We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

As if on cue, on August 14^th, boxing’s reigning world heavyweight champion Vitali Klitschko announced his plans to run for the presidency of the Ukraine in 2015.  Klitschko, nicknamed “Doctor Ironfist,” makes a formidable foe in any ring and his entre into the political scene in the Ukraine will make for a fascinating sideline once the election heats up.  Malaysian news source The Star followed the good doctor’s announcement by offering an article for its readership on …wait for it…. the connection between professional athletes and political office.  That’s another Pat Riley on the back for The Bench Jockeys who again offer our loyalists insights before the larger media outlets can catch up.

• 1) Who are the most accomplished political leaders who also played a professional sport? 
• 2) Should the citizens of Puerto La Cruz decide to elect Ordonez, how have professional athletes performed as political leaders?

First we turn to Issue 1.  For starters, there have been no US Presidents who have also played a professional sport, but  there have been a few Presidents with notable collegiate careers (and some who have purported to have been college athletes*). The Bench Jockeys dug into the stats and offer our top three for consideration:

• 3.  George H.W. Bush (#41 )was first baseman, batted .354 in his senior year and played in the College World Series for Yale.
• 2.  Dwight Eisenhower  (#34) was a linebacker and running back at Army, Nicknamed the “Kansas Cyclone,” Eisenhower injured his knee while tackling one of the greatest athletes of all time, Jim Thorpe, in the famous 1912 Carlisle vs. Army game.
• 1.  Gerald Ford (#38) was an All-American and played center for 1933 National Champion Univ. of Michigan Wolverines football team.  He was voted team MVP in his senior year.

*Although there was a great deal of talk about the college basketball career of Barack Obama, there seems to be no documentation of the assertion that Barack Obama led the Occidental College Men’s Basketball team in scoring in 1979 as has been reported.  He attended Occidental for two years and we can find no corroboration that as a freshman he even played on the school team.  (You never know what will surface when you start doing a little good ol’ fashioned investigative journalism.)  As for other professional sportsmen turned public servants, we found the following tasty tidbits for your consumption:  The most accomplished member of this select group is former US Senator from New Jersey, William “Bill” Bradley who was a member of the 1964 Olympic basketball team and was voted the NCAA Player of the Year in 1965. He played on the New York Knicks for ten years, winning two championship titles.   He was also a Rhodes Scholar so I am guessing he is a pretty smart chap.

US Congressmen from New York, Jack Kemp was appointed as Housing Secretary under George H.W. Bush. Kemp was selected as the Vice Presidential running mate in Bob Dole’s failed 1996 election campaign against Bill Clinton.  Ironically, like Barack Obama, Kemp also attended Occidental in the 1950’s where he was a record-setting javelin hurler and played several positions on the football team: quarterback, defensive back, place kicker and punter.  Interestingly Occidental does have a record of Kemp’s collegiate accomplishments.  Kemp went on to play professional sports as a quarterback for 13 years, with brief stints in the NFL and CFL, later securing star status in the AFL with the San Diego Chargers and Buffalo Bills.  Kemp was selected as the AFL’s Most Valuable Player award in 1965 after leading the Bills to a second AFL championship.

Although appointed to the role, defensive tackle and the most celebrated member of the Purple People Eaters, Alan Page, serves as a Justice on the Minnesota Supreme Court.  Fellow Minnesotan Jesse Ventura was elected as Governor of the state, but to count him would mean we are calling the WWE a professional sport – which it is not – so he is out.   However, the late Jack Mildren, a two-way player who over the course of a three year career with the Colts and Pats made three interceptions as a defensive back and rushed for 22 yards and threw 1 incomplete pass as a quarterback, served as Lt. Governor of Oklahoma.  He meets the pro-pol crossover criteria on paper. 

Internationally, there have been some instances of professional sportsmen transitioning  to public office.  Both Alexis Argüello, who was Mayor of Managua, Nicaragua for a few months before he was assassinated (or committed suicide depending on who you ask) and Philippine House of Representatives member, Emmanuel “Manny”  Pacquiao, were professional boxers who became mid-level political leaders.  Sanath Teran is a former Sri Lankan cricketer and a current member of the Parliament of Sri Lanka.  Ari Uolevi Vatanen is a Finnish rally car driver who won the World Rally Championship in 1981 and the Paris Dakar Rally four times was a member of the European Parliament.  But perhaps the most successful foreign-born professional athlete is Donald Ross Getty, a Canadian politician who served as the Premier of Alberta after quarterbacking the Edmonton Eskimos of the Canadian Football League.  As Premier, Getty served as the de facto Chief Executive for the territory.  Nice work.

And then there is Ahhhhnold.  If bodybuilding is a truly professional sport – and according to ABC’s Wide World of Sports (which I grew up watching as a kid) it is – The Austrian Oak’s election as Governator of California has to trump them all.  But notice some interesting coincidences…and that leads us directly into Issue 2.  Schwarzenegger oversaw the workings of one the most financially unstable states in the US, with the majority of Californians suggesting his limited concepts of state management made fiscal matters even worse.  Imagine that?  

Similarly, there have been two US mayors who were former professional athletes: the Mayor of recently bankrupt Detroit is former NBA-er Dave Bing and the Mayor of cash-strapped Sacramento is Kevin Johnson, formerly of the Phoenix Suns.  (As a former Bullet, I like Dave Bing, but that’s a big 0 for 2 on assuming NBA skills sets prepare players for the complexities of leading a city.)

Which brings us right back to Ordonez.  What experience during his 15 year career in the Major Leagues possibly prepares Magglio Ordonez for the leadership of Puerto La Cruz?  Given the vast anthology of professional sports figures who have come and gone over the last 125 years, success stories are scarce.  In fact, the lion’s share of those stories can be condensed into less than 1000 words (see above).  Ex-athletes seem to be able to serve as a part of a body politic, or a team, but when it comes to leading a state or a city, they fall flat.  With the exception of Don Getty, there is no success story where a professional athlete was elected to the role of a chief executive of a city, state or province.  Bill Bradley and Jack Kemp were strong representatives of a constituency, but effectively leading that same populace requires a completely different array of talents.  Maggs, please reconsider your political aspirations before you get in over your head, or even worse, lose it.  

Reminds me of the current GOP Presidential candidates.  Newt Gingrich is the ultimate re-tread.  Nothing left on the tires except  his name spray painted in obnoxious neon pink.  Pizza Man Cain, no political experience, thinks he’s discovered a painless Nirvana in his 999 plan.  (Turn it upside down and it’s the 666 plan.)  Hmmm.  Rick Perry?  Rookie QB coming out of a college system that is run dominated, and is trying to become a first rounder.  Never going to happen.  Bachman?  Nice uni, that’s it.  Ron Paul?  Old veteran with mediocre stats trying to hook up with Super Bowl Contender.   Huntsman?  Clearly the guy you’ve never heard of.  A walk-on at a Division II school.  Maybe Mitt Romney?  Has thrown a lot of INT’s, not sure if he should throw the ball right handed or left handed, but has won a few big games in his career.  You can’t feel great about pinning your hopes on him, but his name floats to the top of your list.

You can scrounge around, hope to find a diamond in the rough.  Maybe Chris Christie?  Not an option; he decided to get a full degree from his undergraduate school.  Trump?  Come on, this draft actually means something.   Rick Santorum?  Not worth the ink to comment further.  And then there is Sarah Palin?  That nails against the blackboard sound is the paint scraper on the bottom of the barrel.  Maybe its time to peek at your buddy’s list….

Last night, while DVRing the debate, the stars aligned to allow yours truly to snake Ray Rice as the 6^th pick of the draft.  6^th!  Although I had to change draft strategies on the fly, I am thrilled with the opportunity to own Ray-Ray through the 2012 election.   Interestingly, four game-tested QBs were selected in the first 13 picks, as a significant percentage of the owners did not want to be saddled with an inexperienced leader at the reigns.  Does that perhaps portend the proclivities of the populace?

However, the more intriguing development was the way Jamaal Charles (touted by the media as a top five selection) plummeted all the way to pick #11.  He was the fantasy equivalent of Newt Gingrich – chock full of spin and promise but ultimately dropping off of the radar when the doubts started to surface.  The media can try to establish the market, but a discerning and involved public understands far more than the pabulum that it is fed.   As I watched the post-mortem on the debate, I was positively disgusted at the manner in which a purportedly unbiased media portrayed each candidate as hero or villain depending on the particular leanings of each pundit.  Make no mistake, the media control the message far better and far more effectively than any campaign manager.  The media has the forum and the capacity to bombard the airways with any sound bite, whether favorable or devastating to a candidate, relative to any subject matter.  The only way that a voter can make a truly informed decision is through an individualized analysis, and honestly, who has the time to rifle through the interwebs to fact-check every candidate?  No one.  And that’s exactly what the media counts on.

So open up wide, America.  CNN, NBC and FOX will keep feeding you their agendas and you can just keep swallowing or, maybe, just maybe, you will come to the voting booths on November 6, 2012 with a well-researched portfolio of facts, data and trend analysis where you can formulate your own decisions about the leadership of this great country.

In 1987 Southern Methodist University was issued the harshest consequence that the NCAA could levy after it was confirmed that 13 players from the 1985 & 1986 Mustang team were paid a total of $61K from a booster’s slush fund with the full knowledge and approval of SMU athletic department staff and SMU Board of Governors Chair (and eventual Texas Governor) Bill Clements.  The NCAA canceled SMU’s 1987 season, restricted the 1988 season to away games only, banned SMU from bowl games until 1989 and eliminated 55 scholarships over four years.

In addition to the high profile matters involving the Hurricanes, the Buckeyes and of course Cecil Newton Jr’s. proposed sale of his son, Cam, to Mississippi State , this past year’s investigations regarding player pay-outs, recruiting violations, expenses to “scouting services” and informal agent relationships involving major college programs at Alabama, Auburn, Oregon, Michigan, Texas, UNC, LSU and Georgia Tech are just the beginning.  Mark Emmert who was appointed as CEO of the NCAA last fall, has his hands full, but unless he takes firm action, this cavalcade of indecorum may only be the tip of the iceberg.   If shady dealings are happening at all of these schools, who is to say it is not the norm, rather than the exception?  No matter what the intentions of the recruiters, local merchants, boosters or would-be agents, cash-strapped 17 to 21 year olds who have been heralded for their athletic prowess are going to be easy pickings.  And because many of these improprieties do not come to light until after the students graduate, future student-athletes within these programs will be the ones who suffer.  Sure, Reggie Bush lost his Heisman, but he is still playing in the NFL and he is still paid for what he can do on the field.

The NCAA has to do more than just the forfeiture of games and the reduction in scholarships.  Given the interconnectedness of schools in viewer-rich conferences, airplay bans will adversely impact the TV revenue of schools which have committed no wrongdoing.  Although such a ban might create more accountability among conference members, at this rate, the SEC would lose half of its teams to black-outs.  And again, these actions impact future students, coaches and leadership, not the ones who actually committed the infractions.  The scenario is not unlike our toothless United Nations.  Unless unified and comprehensive military action is invoked, all of the sanctions and public derision in the world do not change behavior.  It has been several years since the UN issued sanctions in North Korea and Iran, what is different?   In 1992, the UN invoked its initial set of sanctions against Libya.  It took 19 years for the regime to change, but it did not happen until the rhetoric ended and the airstrikes began.

Right now the reward for breaking the rules far outweighs the risk.  Just like Kim Jong Il and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad thumb their respective snouts at the world’s cooperative assembly, so too will college football insiders continue to violate the rules and roll the dice with the NCAA.  Winning college football programs mean piles of money to the university, prestige for alumni and future individual professional deals.  And because the so-called “death penalty” is more like a 2 year sentence in juvie, there is no reason to not conduct business as usual with multi-layered pay-outs and an array of strawmen doing the bidding of the programs.  Unless the NCAA follows the money and levies more individualized and career-altering consequences, the days of college football as an amateur sport will draw to a close.

When President Obama extended the Bush tax cuts, his donkey’s snout became an elephant’s trunk.  When President Bush enacted TARP, his elephant ears shrunk to the size of a donkey’s. Maybe this country would be better off if  all the states were purple.  Today we have the moderate Blue Dog Democrats, Boll weevils (which are conservative southern Democrats), gypsy moth Republicans (typically moderate representing north eastern and midwestern urban areas), and of course the Tea Party, based on conservative and libertarian views.  All hybrids, aimed at combining the best aspects of two philosophies.

It’s a great mental exercise.  Think of two things you like (or dislike) and consider how they’d be if they were combined into one.  Then come up with a name.  Let us know your suggestions.  I’ll lead off.  How about a cross between a puma and an orangutan…

Not to over-simplify, but the Odyssey Dawn game plan was to attack from the outside to weaken Libyan strongholds, limit Gadhafi’s ability to attack from the air and allow the rebel forces to take control of territory in chunks.  Okay, not a bad plan….  if you’re playing Risk against an eight year old.    But unlike basketball or board games there were some important endgame decisions that required deliberation before the game plan was initiated.  Here are a just a few…

• Who exactly is leading this insurgency and who will be running the show in Libya if the rebels succeed in toppling Gadhafi?
• What happens if the no-fly zone results in a stalemate?  How long could the US potentially be engaged in Libya? 
• Is there any situation where the US would send in ground troops?
• What if Gadhafi simply agrees to relinquish control of the rebel strongholds in the east in exchange for US/NATO withdrawal?  That’s all the rebels really seem to want so they would have their endgame goal.  Does that make a divided Libya an acceptable result to the US/NATO?
• Will US military engagement be the practice de rigueur when insurgents in other countries seek dynamic democratic restructure?

It’s easy to say – after the game – that Butler should have reconsidered its offensive strategy when UConn began its run early in the 2^nd half.  And it is likely that adjustments to the game plan were discussed but the Bulldogs could not successfully implement those changes.  The difference here is that Butler fully considered its opponent’s capabilities and aspirations, understood its own unified goal, knew the game would not end in a stalemate, and recognized the need for a fully-integrated plan of action involving all facets of the team  to succeed in attaining its objective.  To date, nothing coming from the Executive Branch has offered that much clarity with respect to our involvement in Lybia and endgame analysis.

Fast Fact:  Gadhafi has been cagey enough to stay in control of his country for 42 years.  He orchestrated (through Britain) Scotland’s release of a known terrorist on alleged humanitarian grounds.  He employs a deadly 40-member, all-female bodyguard team trained in martial arts and firearms.  And Italy’s Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi thinks Gadhafi is the cat’s pajamas (probably in part because there is a 323 mile pipeline filled with Libyan oil running under the Mediterranean Sea to Sicily).

Which leads us to this year’s predictions.  The easy pick here is the Red Sox versus the Phillies in the 2011 World Series.  All 44 of ESPN’s pundits forecasted Boston to win the AL East, 39 of them predicted that Boston would represent the AL and 33 of those folks expect the Sox to win the World Series.  That’s really going out on a limb gang.  Even Harpo – the silent Bench Jockey – is of the opinion that we will be watching Lester against Halladay in the Fall Classic.   However, I say, when something seems so obvious, do the opposite.  I like the young arms in Oakland to emerge from a weak AL West and shock the so-called “experts.”  Need I say anything other than the Texas Rangers in 2010?  In the NL, San Francisco is essentially the same team that won in 2010 except now they have some self-confidence in their ability to win.  Half the US doesn’t even remember they won it all last year, and the other half think it was a fluke.  Even in winning, they have a chip on their shoulders. 

So what does this mean for baseball in 2011?  The earthquake series redux.  It just seems like a fitting end.

It just seemed appropriate that The Bench Jockeys initiated their Blog to coincide with the start of the 2011 MLB Season.  Although there is nothing like debating AL and NL Pennant chances for the upcoming baseball season and analyzing the strengths, but more likely, the weaknesses of current and former ML players, starting this Blog at this time offers The Bench Jockeys the opportunity to assess the potential play-off scenarios in the National Hockey League, as well as the contenders and the pretenders for the Green Jacket, which is  just around the corner on April 7th.  The NBA is just absolute garbage, so you won’t see much from us about that steaming pile, but you will be able to read about the Final Four and VCU’s improbable run.  (We don’t hate basketball, we just hate the NBA.)  Conflicts, oddities and head-shaking actions within NASCAR, soccer, tennis, even the much-maligned PBA, will be served up with cheeky commentary and exploration.

But it’s not just about sports here at The Bench Jockeys, oh no.  We have opinions about any number of subjects.  And along with the sports banter, we intend to mix in a fair share of analysis about the national political scene, potential domestic and global crises, and of course, we fully intend to heckle leaders deserving of derision.  We hope that you will come along for the ride and participate in the discourse.

Oh, and in case you didn’t notice it in the pic above, Barack Obama is a lefty.  Now, there’s a big surprise.