Although The Bench Jockeys would have enjoyed seeing what Chris Christie brought to the table or listening to Sarah Palin wrangle with Michele Bachmann (meow) during the next round of debates, it appears that we will have to settle for one of these 12 declared candidates.  In version 3.0 of The Bench Jockeys “Odds to Win the GOP Nomination” we have grouped the dirty dozen into quartets.  Unless something absolutely stunning happens, those in the 2^nd Tier (and the bottom half of the 1^st Tier) have some serious work to do in order to get into contention into what is essentially a two horse race.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. Three of them can’t even get invited to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

We are also of the strong opinion – as we stated in version 2.0 – that Marco Rubio is the natural VP selection.  However, Herman Cain’s straw poll victory in Florida clouds that picture a bit.  That being said, we bet that Florida would have selected Rubio in a mano-a-mano match-up between Marco and Herman.

In this iteration of our odds-making, we have winnowed the field and have scratched Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels to reflect their current intentions to remain on the sidelines.  However, if the citizenry truly begins to seek to limit Obama to one term, we would not discount the possibility of any of the above-named individuals re-entering the process.  David Petraeus, Conde Rice and Bob McDonnell seem to be either content with their existing positions or lack the moxie for a run at the Presidency so we have pulled them from the list.  Others who have not declared have now been relegated to our off-line fourth tier and have been dropped from this GOP Nom 2.0 list.  Those seeking to examine our original 40 candidate list will find a jump-link below:

http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/

We will continue to maintain the comprehensive list on a stand alone page, keeping our odds current while considering trending.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Although we have downgraded him with respect to the 2012 election, we absolutely see Marco Rubio as a potential VP candidate.  The old guard Republicans would be wise to include Rubio on their ticket in an effort to pass the torch to the next gen of the GOP while they can still wield some influence on him.   Considering the expanding Latino demographic shift in the US, Rubio’s oratory strength and his fiscally conservative economic platform, his selection by the party should be a no-brainer.  But then again, the GOP paired John McCain with “the maverick” in 2008, so who knows….

Tier 3

Tier 4 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning

Both Democrats and Republicans oppose the intervention for an array of reasons:

• the cost of the effort,
• the potential for escalation and the US long-term role in a prolonged civil war,
• the message it sends to other countries about the US definition of sovereignty, and
• the lack of defined objectives

But the true Congressional opposition lies in the potential for unchecked military action in the Executive Branch by the weakening of the War Powers Resolution of 1973 (WPR).  By soft-peddling the President’s actions in Libya, the Administration hasembarked on a troublesome journey along a slippery slope by asserting that the Libyan intervention does not rise to the level of ‘hostilities,’ a term that remains undefined by the WPR.  On behalf of the Administration, State Department legal advisor, Harold Koh, contends that the use of unmanned drones for attack, the limited risk of harm to US forces and the limited ability for Libyan forces to exchange meaningful fire with US forces suggest that the US actions in Libya do not warrant the financial and reporting disclosures mandated by the War Powers Resolution.  In order words: no accountability required.

However, those arguments belie the critical role of Congress in the brave new world of technological warfare.  If we buy what Mr. Koh is selling, all future drone and US-based missile attacks would not technically involve face to face conflict or imperil ground troops, and therefore, such actions would fall outside of Congressional oversight.  However, the use of a faceless military force against another nation does not create any fewer ramifications for the US or its citizens.  The WPR was not simply developed to protect our soldiers from direct harm; it was promulgated to ensure the President did not engage in military action without full accountability and oversight from the Legislative Branch as originally contemplated by Art. 1, Sec 8 of the US Constitution.

History Lesson:   The War Powers Resolution of 1973 was written as a modification of the original War Powers Act of 1941 that FDR initiated which granted him greater authority to reorganize the executive branch, independent government agencies, and government corporations, as well as censor mail and other forms of communication between the United States and foreign countries during World War II.  A Second War Powers Act was passed in 1942 further extending executive branch power, allowing for the acquisition (under condemnation if necessary) of land for military or naval purposes.   In the aftermath of the Korean War and during the last phases of the Vietnam War, Congress re-examined the broad powers conferred by the WPA and drafted the War Powers Resolution of 1973, designed to re-establish the checks and balances associated with the engagement of the US Military consistent with the intent of the Framers of the Constitution.

This week, by a vote of 14-5, the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, with four Republicans crossing the aisle – Rubio (FL), Inhofe (OK), Isakson (GA), and Barrasso (WY) – authorized US involvement in the NATO-led mission in Libya.  The measure will now go to the Republican-controlled House for consideration. If adopted, SFRC language would permit US involvement in Libya for up to one year, however, there would be no authorized ground support.

Circling back to the WPR [and absent from the majority of the media accounts from the recent SRFC vote]…. Ranking Member, Dick Lugar (IN) addressed Harold Koh/ the Administration’s characterization of the Libyan intervention, and on June 28th, defined the current US military operations in Libya as ‘hostilities’ for the purposes of the War Powers Resolution within the SFRC Resolution .  In doing so, he put a roadblock in the Administration’s interpretation of the Libyan intervention “from becoming an accepted precedent that future administrations may rely on to conduct significant and prolonged military engagements without Congressional authorization.”

We still do not have an answer as to the Executive Branch’s objective in Libya, but we do have some limits on how long the Congressional rope will be.  All I know is that the political landscape has been turned on its axis.  Republican hawks are now calling for stricter oversight in the consideration of military action (the former GOP economic stimulus package) and the dove-loving Democrats are now seeking expansive executive powers in the deployment of military assets on foreign soil.  Could this be the ripple effects of Japan’s earth-tilting earthquake?

Each candidate in Manchester is pro-life, strongly anti-union, and anything but Hawkish – with all seven suggesting that American troops need to come home.  Michele Bachmann – who filed her paperwork to run for the Republican nomination earlier today –reminded viewers that as President, she would be making military decisions as Commander-in-Chief an hour after she introduced herself as a tax lawyer.  Not too reassuring.  Ron Paul came off like an angry grandfather drifting from issue to issue, so much so that if he were in the livingroom at a family function instead of a televised debate, his kids would say, “Okay, Dad, that’ll do.”  Gingrich actually sounded the most sure of himself, filled with facts and good detail.  It’s too bad for his supporters that at this point, Newt is playing from two sets down.  Herman Cain and his point-by-point analysis played well in SC, but an encore performance was too much of the same:  no answers, just lots of consultant-speak analysis.  Santorum did not do anything to hurt is bid – read: no change in his long-shot odds.  T-Paw was adequate, but Romney was stronger tonight.  Is Gary Johnson de facto out?

The Plus-Minus breaks down as follows: The Bench Jockeys think Bachmann’s performance tonight knocks out Sarah Palin as a candidate.  Pluses go to Gingrich & Romney.  Minuses goes to Cain & Paul.  Santorum, Pawlenty and Bachmann held serve.

It’s no surprise that the Bench Jockey’s oddsmaker’s are reacting very strongly to the implosion in Gingrich’s base of operations by dropping his 2012 GOP Nominations odds to 80:1.  Accordingly, The Bench Jockeys are calling Newt Gingrich all but out of the 2012 Republican Race.  In a true thinking man’s move, former Georgia Governor, Sonny Perdue, was immediately hired by Gingrich rival (and Bench Jockeys’ 3:1 favorite) Tim Pawlenty to assist in T-Paw’s national campaign strategy.  We also feel that Newt’s departure also opens the door for Texas Governor Rick Perry.  Rob Johnson and David Carney – two of Gingrich’s former lead strategists – are FOP (Friends of Perry).  And because Johnson and Carney need to eat, we are giving Gov. Perry’s odds an up-tick.

In the meantime, Gingrich is using Facebook to keep his waning supporters in tow, declaring through social media, “I am committed to running the substantive, solutions-oriented campaign I set out to run earlier this spring.  The campaign begins anew Sunday in Los Angeles.”  Maybe he should also place an ad in the Help Wanted section of The Des Moines Register, oh, and maybe one in the Obituaries.

With Barbour, Huckabee, and Trump already standing on the sidelines, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is the latest to decline to square off with the remaining Republican candidates in an effort to wrestle the White House away from President Obama.

The Bench Jockeys thought that Daniels had a legitimate chance to secure the nomination as an 8:1 contender – the third highest ratio from our oddsmaking team.  Citing the needs of a rather complex family dynamic (that we will avoid condensing and characterizing in this update) Daniels no doubt looked at the scrutiny that his family would be placed under and opted out.  The mean-spirited attacks by a sensationalized media machine, which is more likely to create the news than it is to report it, is reason enough to avoid the spotlight.  Why would anyone really want to run for President and put his/her family, friends and loved ones through such unmitigated scrutiny?  And when the media controls an unapologetic and unconsequenced dogmatic platform, how can the real story even be told?  I’m not saying we need censorship, just accountability.  But that’s another blog topic…

It has been a rather tough 30 days on the slate of GOP hopefuls – and that is exactly why we developed our odds-tracker.  See ( http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/  ) so you can keep the entirety of the race in context.  Daniels’ exit benefits Tim Pawlenty, and we are now calling him the GOP nomination favorite at 3:1, edging past Mitt Romney at 7:2.  Upticks also go to Jim DeMint, Alan West and Rick Santorum.  Endorsements from Daniels and Huckabee may decide this marathon.

So if everyone was jumping off of a bridge, would Big Oil jump in with them and pollute the water? Saying that everyone else gets subsidies so Oil should too is like saying, “all the other kids get FREE lunch at school, I should get it too even though my parents make more money than all their parents combined.”  It astonishes me every time I see a billionaire CEO of a company defending his “in-touchness” with the common American.  The average worker cannot afford gas prices (that have risen around $4/gal) to fill up their tanks to get to their minimum wage Walmart jobs that they took simply to pay for their gas.  All this while Big Oil is complaining they may lose subsidies — (the federal taxes taken out of the Walmart employee’s paycheck) — causing them to fly first class on a commercial airline instead of in their own private jets.

The most worrisome thing is that I don’t believe Congress will put a stop to rising gas prices.  Even if some of the governmental leadership recognizes that this is one of the major problems in the US at the moment (unemployment, ‘end of days’ weather patterns and the NHL playoffs being a few others) politicians are powerless to the interests of the money that feeds their campaigns.  And although Big Oil dollars do not hold a candle to political donations generated from the general population, the common person can no longer spare a donation to their favorite candidate since their wallet is being sucked dry at the Exxon station (so Exxon leaders can).   In sum, the common man remains in a week-to-week existence with no political voice (i.e. campaign giving) by a subsided business which uses its profits to push its own agenda designed to give the commoner no access.  Hmmm. Sounds a bit Un-American.

As for the front-runners, we think our odds on Mitt, Mitch and Newt are pretty close, but Tim Pawlenty edges up to a dead-heat with Romney in the aftermath of Huckabee’s statement.  During the May 5th South Carolina Debates, candidate Tim Pawlenty stated that even he was a Huckabee fan and we think many of Huck’s Army will shift to Pawlenty, at least until Daniels makes it official.  Romney would have been better off with Huckabee in the race since the support that Huckabee would have garnered now must go somewhere, but it is not likely to go to Mitt.  With Huckabee out, those “so-con” votes will only strengthen the camps of Romney’s remaining top tier opponents. 

To view a comprehensive list of the latest Presidential odds, click   http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/

Pluses go to Pawlenty and Cain/ A Minus goes to Johnson/ No goals against & no goals scored for Paul and Santorum.

The next Republican gabfest will be Iowa on August 11^th.

In 1905, the US switched to a system of primaries designed to assign delegates/votes to party-based candidates.  Since the initiation of the primary system, the only President to decline to compete for his party’s nomination for a second term was LBJ – who smelled blood in the water after only narrowly beating Eugene McCarthy in the New Hampshire primary while fearing the political clout of Bobby Kennedy.

Among the GOP contenders, Paddy Power grades Mitt Romney at 10:1 and Mitch Daniels is at 12:1 to win the 2012 election.  The Bench Jockeys odds posted on the following page contemplate the likelihood of securing the GOP nomination, not the 2012 popular election; however, we are giving newly designated CIA Director, General David Petraeus a downgrade to 30:1.  We think Petraeus will have his hands full in Langley as he is ultimately responsible for being the nation’s eyes and ears; it is unlikely he will contemplate a run in 2012 so soon after assuming the helm at the CIA.  We think he is more of a candidate in 2016.  Further, as a “Rockefeller Republican” – a pro-business, socially liberal New Englander – he is a bit outside the current direction of the GOP.