The Bench Jockeys » democrat

Hillary Opens Dem Polls on Top

Ian Paregol — Sun, 01 Mar 2015 22:34:51 +0000

March 1, 2015 – Quinnipiac University conducted a telephone survey in Iowa during the week of February 16th seeking opinions about the projected field of Democratic candidates for 2016. The survey involved 619 likely Democratic Caucus participants. The predictable results were released on February 26th.

Democratic Party Iowans overwhelmingly backed Hillary Clinton (61%), with Elizabeth Warren earning runner-up honors at 19%. Biden placed third with 7%, Sanders was fourth at 5% and Jim Webb finished in fifth at 2%. Hillary maintains a stronghold on her path to the Democratic Party’s nomination and the odds that The Bench Jockeys have offered (1:7) seem in line with these results. [For those of you who read The Bench Jockeys and do not gamble, a 1:7 line means that you would have to bet $7 to win just $1.]

Right now, Hillary is just that sure of a lock. What was remarkable is that not one of the 619 Iowans who participated, voted for former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley. Not one. With only six potential candidates, Quinnipiac extended its inquiry to include a question about who the voters would support if their first choice opted not to run. Even with Hillary out of the picture, O’Malley only secured 3% of the votes. 18 of 619 votes. Biden (30%) and Warren (23%) were the leading pretenders. Look for Marty to take a page out of the Bill Clinton playbook and have his Celtic rock band – O’Malley’s March – booked on a few late night talk shows this summer if he cannot gain traction in this incomplete field.

The Bench Jockeys Offer Opening Odds for 2106 Nomination

Ian Paregol — Sat, 28 Feb 2015 04:04:52 +0000

February 27, 2015 – The 2015 sports scene is off and running. It began with a collective “What the Heck?” as Pete Carroll gift wrapped the Lombardi Trophy for the Pats with the most incomprehensible play call in Superbowl history. Next, Novak and Serena gave notice at the Aussie Open that favorites still rule the day in the ATP and WTA. Last week, the NASCAR season fired-up its real season which began with Joey Logano’s win in Daytona. This week, the MLB returns to Florida and Arizona as spring games begin. And just as teams in the NBA and NHL are jockeying for seeding in their respective leagues, and college hoops teams make their final push to be included in the 2015 March Madness bracket, The Bench Jockeys political Hot Stove is heating up for a humdinger of a 2015 in anticipation of general election in 2016 that will chart the future of the United States into the next decade.

In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, the Bench Jockeys have released odds for the 2016 nomination. We will keep this tracker up to date as entrants declare and drop out and as political fortunes rise and fall in the GOP.

This year we have the added pleasure of offering the odds (albeit a bookmaker’s dream) for those vying for the nomination on the Democrat ticket. Hint: Hillary Clinton is a presently at 1:7 which will only drift away from a “sure thing” if something surfaces from the investigations involving Benghazi or the foreign government money accepted by the Clinton Foundation.

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Democrat and Republican races for the White House.

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the 2016 nomination.

Democrats

Candidate	Age	Background	Opening Odds	Current Odds♤
Joseph Biden	72	VP US; Fmr Sen DE	35:1	35:1
Hillary Clinton	67	Fmr. US Sen NY; Fmr. US Sec of State	1:7	1:7
Jim Webb	69	Fmr US Sen VA	30:1	30:1
Martin O’Malley	52	Fmr Gov MD; Fmr. Mayor Baltimore	25:1	25:1
Bernie Sanders*	73	US Sen VT; Fmr Rep US House VT	35:1	35:1
Mark Warner	60	US Sen VA; Fmr Gov VA	50:1	50:1
Elizabeth Warren	65	US Sen MA	48:1	48:1

* Registered Ind. may run as a Dem.

♤ Odds updated 3/7/15

Republicans

Candidate	Age	Background	Opening Odds	Current Odds♢
John Bolton	66	Fmr US Ambassador UN	75:1	75:1
Jeb Bush	62	Fmr Gov FL	7:2	7:2
Ben Carson	63	No political offices held; neurosurgeon	22:1	30:1
Chris Christie	52	Gov NJ	12:1	12:1
Ted Cruz	44	US Sen TX	8:1	10:1
Carly Fiorina	60	No political offices held, Fmr CEO HP	50:1	50:1
Lindsey Graham	59	US Sen SC; Fmr US House Rep SC	45:1	45:1
Mike Huckabee	59	Fmr Gov AR	17:1	17:1
Bobby Jindal	43	Gov LA; Fmr US House Rep LA	50:1	50:1
John Kasich	62	Gov OH; Fmr US House Rep OH	70:1	70:1
Rand Paul	52	US Sen KY	6:1	6:1
Mike Pence	55	Gov IN, US House Rep IN	40:1	40:1
Rick Perry	64	Fmr Gov TX	18:1	18:1
Marco Rubio	43	US Sen FL; US House Rep FL	10:1	12:1
Rick Santorum	56	Fmr US Sen PA; Fmr US House Rep PA	45:1	45:1
Donald Trump	68	No political offices held; CEO Trump	100:1	100:1
Scott Walker	47	Gov WI	9:1	9:1

♢ Odds updated 3/7/15

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

Hybrid Theory

Craig Zuckerman — Fri, 06 May 2011 01:18:06 +0000

After returning from five days and nine rounds of golf in Myrtle Beach with my new favorite golf club – a hybrid – it got me to thinking how there’s more and more combo platters these days. Every day we come across two ideas/products/life forms that have somehow been combined into one presumably preferable concept. For example, words (bigamy, from the Latin meaning: twice and the Greek meaning: wedlock), convertible bonds (what’s better than that), dogs (I prefer the Dorkie, a Dachshund/Yorkie hybrid), mermaids (obvious upside), plants (peppermint is actually a hybrid between spearmint and water mint), fruit (grapefruit is a hybrid between a pomelo and the Jamaican sweet orange), sports (Frisbee golf & Horseball [a combination between polo and basketball]) and of course, politicians.

When President Obama extended the Bush tax cuts, his donkey’s snout became an elephant’s trunk. When President Bush enacted TARP, his elephant ears shrunk to the size of a donkey’s. Maybe this country would be better off if all the states were purple. Today we have the moderate Blue Dog Democrats, Boll weevils (which are conservative southern Democrats), gypsy moth Republicans (typically moderate representing north eastern and midwestern urban areas), and of course the Tea Party, based on conservative and libertarian views. All hybrids, aimed at combining the best aspects of two philosophies.

It’s a great mental exercise. Think of two things you like (or dislike) and consider how they’d be if they were combined into one. Then come up with a name. Let us know your suggestions. I’ll lead off. How about a cross between a puma and an orangutan…