The Bench Jockeys scored and graded all of the individual responses on a +2 to a -2 scale.  (We will use the same format and assessment tool for this evening’s main course.)  Carly Fiorina was the clear winner this afternoon with a total tally of +7.  On the other side of the spectrum, Rick Perry rambled and seemed disorganized; we deemed him the lowest performer with a total score of -4.  Rick Santorum’s love of country and passion were touching (+6) but he has is long way to go.  Gilmore (+2) and Pataki (+2) did not hurt themselves, but did nothing to help them push forward either.  Bobby Jindal (+5) had the best one liner, stating, “give Bernie Sanders credit, at least he is honest enough to call himself a socialist, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are no better.”  Although advocating a widely unpopular position, soft-spoken, Lindsey Graham’s honesty about committing troops to Iraq and Syria to confront ISIS was worth noting; however, the balance of his responsive content was bland (-1).

Bottom line:  Fiorina emerges from the Loser’s Bracket as the most polished, feisty and pointed of the bottom 7.  Depending on the sound bites offered, I would expect her support to surge, but given the early viewing time, she might not convert this impressive effort into votes.

In the meantime, get your popcorn and antacids ready for tonight….

Proposition betting: Odds of seeing someone in a head-lock – 5:2.  Donald Trump exceeding his allotted time on every question – 1:5.  Jeb Bush or Scott Walker closing the gap on Trump by this time next week – 3:2.  Daily double: Odds of either John Kasich or Ben Carson being perceived as the winner this evening – 8:1.

Blinded by personal ambition while forsaking the end-game goal of the Grand Old Party, what most of the aspirants fail to recognize is that it will not be the populace who decides who will be the nominee, it will be the party.  Amos Tuck will rise from the dead before the GOP allows The Donald the honor of facing off against Hillary, Bernie or Uncle Joe.  Assuming RNC chair, Reince Priebus has learned anything from 2008 and 2012, the Republican Party will not let the intra-party backbiting continue, the field will be purposefully winnowed and the leadership will need to broker a deal with Trump so he does not give the GOP the Ross Perot 1992 skidoo.

And for those of you who love the underdog, the seven remaining Division 1-FCS candidates will also have their opportunity to shine in a lesser-viewed cage match undercard earlier on Thursday at 5PM.  This second tier candidate debate essentially becomes the de facto loser bracket in a double elimination contest.  Notably, each of the “less-than-magnificent 7″ enter this bracket saddled with one loss.  However, miracles do happen… like when 33-27 Fresno State beat Georgia in 2008 to win the College World Series or when Buster Douglas, a 42-1 long shot, KOed Iron Mike in 1990.  It happens, but PAC contributions will begin to wane without a tremendous showing on Thursday.

The Bench Jockeys will be lapping up both of the debates, hoping that there will be an automatic microphone kill switch utilized by the moderators when speaking time expires and updating our odds on Friday based upon what we see.  Click here http://thebenchjockeys.com/updated-odds-for-2016-presidential-nominations/ to see where things stand prior to Thursday’s scuffle.

I find it ironic that CPAC– a conference which has become the Right’s annual homage to Ronald Reagan and everything he stood for – does not embrace one of the central tenets that ol’ Number 40 championed:  the 11^th Commandment – Thou shall not speak ill of any fellow Republican. 

Whether a Tea bagger, an establishment Republican, a Main Streeter, or a RINO, there is one thing that all Republicans seek….  – a victory in November 2016.  With a crowded Republican field, the Dems are counting on the Reps to cannibalize their own:  exposing as many inconsistent statements, unusual alliances, and skeletons as possible.  The Republican candidates fail to see that the doubts that they cast upon one another weaken the entire corps.  And for a group that is touted as a bevy of Bible thumpers, the 2016 aspirants have already forsaken the charge of Matthew 7:1 “Judge not, that you be not judged.”

And so, let us turn to the CPAC straw poll results….

Not surprisingly, the winner was Rand Paul.  CPAC’s favorite son has won the CPAC poll for the last three years.  What WAS surprising is that second place went to Scott Walker only 4% points behind Paul.  Show belonged to Ted Cruz.  Dr. Ben Carson and Jeb Bush round out the top 5.  The basement was occupied by Lindsey Graham and George Pataki – however neither attended CPAC.  The lowest-rated CPAC speaker was Former UN Ambassador, John Bolton; however he has a lot of company in the sub 3% contingent including pre-bridgegate hopeful, Chris Christie.

Notably, Carly Fiorina, who sits on the board of the American Conservative Union (which hosts CPAC) emerged as a possible contender with a scathing speech directed at Hillary Clinton.  If the Reps were wise, they would broker a backroom deal that imposes a moratorium on barbs against Fiorina (who has no elected experience) in order to utilize Carly’s ability to stand stiletto-to-stiletto with Hillary as a way to tear at Clinton for the next 20 months while allowing Fiorina to remain in the media spotlight.

3007 voters participated; percentages are listed below:

25.7        Sen. Rand Paul
21.4        Gov. Scott Walker
11.5        Sen. Ted Cruz
11.4        Dr. Ben Carson
8.3          Former Gov. Jeb Bush
4.3          Former Sen. Rick Santorum
3.7          Sen. Marco Rubio
3.5          Donald Trump
3.0          Carly Fiorina
2.8          Gov. Chris Christie
1.1          Former Gov. Rick Perry
0.9          Gov. Bobby Jindal
0.8          Former Gov. Sarah Palin
0.3          Former Gov. Mike Huckabee
0.3          Former Ambassador John Bolton
0.1          Sen. Lindsey Graham
0.1          Former Gov. George Pataki
1.0          Undecided
0.7          Other

The problem for the Reps was that no plurality exists – not even from a group that is on the right edge of the Republican spectrum.  And that has been the fly in the ointment since 2008.  If this group cannot solidly back a candidate given a fairly narrow political conservative agenda, how will the Republicans identify a champion who can get them to 270 electoral votes in 2016?  If the Grand Old Party aspires to a seat in the Oval Office, the playbook cannot be adapted from The Lord of the Flies.  Instead, the path forward must come down to the party’s ability to control the will to power of many of the potential candidates, synthesize the messaging and reconnect with the growing number of Reps-turned-independents/Libertarians.  They forgot that in 2008 and 2012. 

Maybe the third time will be a charm for them in 2016, but after analyzing the results of the CPAC straw poll and listening to the party rhetoric for two days, if the Republicans want to win in 2016, candid conversations need to occur which involve the potential entrants and some will need to be cheerleaders, not combatants.

Comments and thoughts welcome. 

And now our newest feature… GOP Electoral Face-off odds vs. Obama.

The current count does not consider the impact of the GOP running mate or the potential VP switcheroo of Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton.

Issue 2.  Despite never having won a Grand Slam event, Caroline Wozniacki continues to retain the top rank in the WTA.  The Dane will again be designated as a number 1 seed as the first Slam event of the year – the Aussie Open – commences later this month.  Unfortunately, C-Woz has suffered premature exits over the course of the 2011 Grand Slam events:  Australian – ousted in the Semis; French – 3^rd Round departure; Wimbledon – 4^th Round loss; US – eliminated in the Semis, and aside from a 2009 US Open finals appearance, she continues to underwhelm in the majors.  Wozniacki does feast on the smaller venues, but Petra Kvitova is gaining ground and should slip past Wozniacki shortly.  Nevertheless, Caroline is the poster girl for women’s tennis and is already featured on the 2012 US Open promotional materials.

Third. Can Ron Paul win the GOP nomination?   In a word, “No.”  In spite of the 3^rd place in Iowa and his 2^nd place in NH, Ron Paul cannot beat Barack Obama if Paul were to be selected as the GOP’s candidate.  And the GOP strategists know it.  The good doctor’s second place finish in New Hampshire speaks more to the lack of a solid contender, than it does to the serious consideration of Paul’s candidacy.  It also is an indicator that the GOP is not ready to coalesce behind Romney.  Paul will stay in this race and carve off enough of a vote to keep Mitt’s other opponents at bay.  That’s great for Romney winning primaries but bad for both 1) the GOP which will continue to experience a lack of plurality for Mitt’s candidacy and 2) the remaining four candidates who will be unable to mount a challenge.

Jon Huntsman absolutely needed to top Ron Paul in New Hampshire, and even amid Huntsman’s claims that he is “in the hunt,” Big Bad Jon will likely be out between South Carolina on January 21st and Nevada on February 4^th.  Perry must get a significant bounce out of the southern swing in SC and Florida or he will be next to cash in his chips.  Santorum’s second place finish in Iowa (or possibly victory in Iowa if you believe the conspiracy theorists) will allow him to get to Super Tuesday (March 6^th) provided he is not taken to the woodshed in Florida on January 31^st and does something in Arizona and Michigan on February 28^th.

And that leaves Newt.  Aside from someone jumping into the fray before too many delegates are allocated, GOP faithful, Gingrich is your Plan B.

Unable to shake the sexual harassment allegations, Cain is slipping; unable to offer cogent debate on a national level, Perry is sliding; and unable to seem younger and a more plausible presidential option, Paul is plummeting.  Bachmann (who performed well in the recent South Carolina debate) let her campaign team get  caught up in complaining rather than having them push her exposure-limited, but effective, responses.  Huntsman and Santorum are not getting enough network airtime and they are suffering greatly for it. BT Dubs, is Gary Johnson still a candidate?

Our latest GOP odds for the nomination are posted below:

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. None of them can get an invite to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

Reminds me of the current GOP Presidential candidates.  Newt Gingrich is the ultimate re-tread.  Nothing left on the tires except  his name spray painted in obnoxious neon pink.  Pizza Man Cain, no political experience, thinks he’s discovered a painless Nirvana in his 999 plan.  (Turn it upside down and it’s the 666 plan.)  Hmmm.  Rick Perry?  Rookie QB coming out of a college system that is run dominated, and is trying to become a first rounder.  Never going to happen.  Bachman?  Nice uni, that’s it.  Ron Paul?  Old veteran with mediocre stats trying to hook up with Super Bowl Contender.   Huntsman?  Clearly the guy you’ve never heard of.  A walk-on at a Division II school.  Maybe Mitt Romney?  Has thrown a lot of INT’s, not sure if he should throw the ball right handed or left handed, but has won a few big games in his career.  You can’t feel great about pinning your hopes on him, but his name floats to the top of your list.

You can scrounge around, hope to find a diamond in the rough.  Maybe Chris Christie?  Not an option; he decided to get a full degree from his undergraduate school.  Trump?  Come on, this draft actually means something.   Rick Santorum?  Not worth the ink to comment further.  And then there is Sarah Palin?  That nails against the blackboard sound is the paint scraper on the bottom of the barrel.  Maybe its time to peek at your buddy’s list….

Although The Bench Jockeys would have enjoyed seeing what Chris Christie brought to the table or listening to Sarah Palin wrangle with Michele Bachmann (meow) during the next round of debates, it appears that we will have to settle for one of these 12 declared candidates.  In version 3.0 of The Bench Jockeys “Odds to Win the GOP Nomination” we have grouped the dirty dozen into quartets.  Unless something absolutely stunning happens, those in the 2^nd Tier (and the bottom half of the 1^st Tier) have some serious work to do in order to get into contention into what is essentially a two horse race.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. Three of them can’t even get invited to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

We are also of the strong opinion – as we stated in version 2.0 – that Marco Rubio is the natural VP selection.  However, Herman Cain’s straw poll victory in Florida clouds that picture a bit.  That being said, we bet that Florida would have selected Rubio in a mano-a-mano match-up between Marco and Herman.

Last night, while DVRing the debate, the stars aligned to allow yours truly to snake Ray Rice as the 6^th pick of the draft.  6^th!  Although I had to change draft strategies on the fly, I am thrilled with the opportunity to own Ray-Ray through the 2012 election.   Interestingly, four game-tested QBs were selected in the first 13 picks, as a significant percentage of the owners did not want to be saddled with an inexperienced leader at the reigns.  Does that perhaps portend the proclivities of the populace?

However, the more intriguing development was the way Jamaal Charles (touted by the media as a top five selection) plummeted all the way to pick #11.  He was the fantasy equivalent of Newt Gingrich – chock full of spin and promise but ultimately dropping off of the radar when the doubts started to surface.  The media can try to establish the market, but a discerning and involved public understands far more than the pabulum that it is fed.   As I watched the post-mortem on the debate, I was positively disgusted at the manner in which a purportedly unbiased media portrayed each candidate as hero or villain depending on the particular leanings of each pundit.  Make no mistake, the media control the message far better and far more effectively than any campaign manager.  The media has the forum and the capacity to bombard the airways with any sound bite, whether favorable or devastating to a candidate, relative to any subject matter.  The only way that a voter can make a truly informed decision is through an individualized analysis, and honestly, who has the time to rifle through the interwebs to fact-check every candidate?  No one.  And that’s exactly what the media counts on.

So open up wide, America.  CNN, NBC and FOX will keep feeding you their agendas and you can just keep swallowing or, maybe, just maybe, you will come to the voting booths on November 6, 2012 with a well-researched portfolio of facts, data and trend analysis where you can formulate your own decisions about the leadership of this great country.

Tier 1

Tier 2

To view Tiers 3 and 4 click here: http://thebenchjockeys.com/2012-gop-nomination-odds-2-0/