March 1, 2015 – Quinnipiac University conducted a telephone survey in Iowa during the week of February 16th seeking opinions about the projected field of Democratic candidates for 2016.  The survey involved 619 likely Democratic Caucus participants. The predictable results were released on February 26th.

Democratic Party Iowans overwhelmingly backed Hillary Clinton (61%), with Elizabeth Warren earning runner-up honors at 19%.  Biden placed third with 7%, Sanders was fourth at 5% and Jim Webb finished in fifth at 2%.  Hillary maintains a stronghold on her path to the Democratic Party’s nomination and the odds that The Bench Jockeys have offered (1:7) seem in line with these results.  [For those of you who read The Bench Jockeys and do not gamble, a 1:7 line means that you would have to bet $7 to win just $1.]

Right now, Hillary is just that sure of a lock. What was remarkable is that not one of the 619 Iowans who participated, voted for former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley.  Not one.  With only six potential candidates, Quinnipiac extended its inquiry to include a question about who the voters would support if their first choice opted not to run.  Even with Hillary out of the picture, O’Malley only secured 3% of the votes.  18 of 619 votes.  Biden (30%) and Warren (23%) were the leading pretenders.  Look for Marty to take a page out of the Bill Clinton playbook and have his Celtic rock band – O’Malley’s March – booked on a few late night talk shows this summer if he cannot gain traction in this incomplete field.

In this iteration of our odds-making, we have winnowed the field and have scratched Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels to reflect their current intentions to remain on the sidelines.  However, if the citizenry truly begins to seek to limit Obama to one term, we would not discount the possibility of any of the above-named individuals re-entering the process.  David Petraeus, Conde Rice and Bob McDonnell seem to be either content with their existing positions or lack the moxie for a run at the Presidency so we have pulled them from the list.  Others who have not declared have now been relegated to our off-line fourth tier and have been dropped from this GOP Nom 2.0 list.  Those seeking to examine our original 40 candidate list will find a jump-link below:

http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/

We will continue to maintain the comprehensive list on a stand alone page, keeping our odds current while considering trending.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Although we have downgraded him with respect to the 2012 election, we absolutely see Marco Rubio as a potential VP candidate.  The old guard Republicans would be wise to include Rubio on their ticket in an effort to pass the torch to the next gen of the GOP while they can still wield some influence on him.   Considering the expanding Latino demographic shift in the US, Rubio’s oratory strength and his fiscally conservative economic platform, his selection by the party should be a no-brainer.  But then again, the GOP paired John McCain with “the maverick” in 2008, so who knows….

Tier 3

Tier 4 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning