I find it ironic that CPAC– a conference which has become the Right’s annual homage to Ronald Reagan and everything he stood for – does not embrace one of the central tenets that ol’ Number 40 championed:  the 11^th Commandment – Thou shall not speak ill of any fellow Republican. 

Whether a Tea bagger, an establishment Republican, a Main Streeter, or a RINO, there is one thing that all Republicans seek….  – a victory in November 2016.  With a crowded Republican field, the Dems are counting on the Reps to cannibalize their own:  exposing as many inconsistent statements, unusual alliances, and skeletons as possible.  The Republican candidates fail to see that the doubts that they cast upon one another weaken the entire corps.  And for a group that is touted as a bevy of Bible thumpers, the 2016 aspirants have already forsaken the charge of Matthew 7:1 “Judge not, that you be not judged.”

And so, let us turn to the CPAC straw poll results….

Not surprisingly, the winner was Rand Paul.  CPAC’s favorite son has won the CPAC poll for the last three years.  What WAS surprising is that second place went to Scott Walker only 4% points behind Paul.  Show belonged to Ted Cruz.  Dr. Ben Carson and Jeb Bush round out the top 5.  The basement was occupied by Lindsey Graham and George Pataki – however neither attended CPAC.  The lowest-rated CPAC speaker was Former UN Ambassador, John Bolton; however he has a lot of company in the sub 3% contingent including pre-bridgegate hopeful, Chris Christie.

Notably, Carly Fiorina, who sits on the board of the American Conservative Union (which hosts CPAC) emerged as a possible contender with a scathing speech directed at Hillary Clinton.  If the Reps were wise, they would broker a backroom deal that imposes a moratorium on barbs against Fiorina (who has no elected experience) in order to utilize Carly’s ability to stand stiletto-to-stiletto with Hillary as a way to tear at Clinton for the next 20 months while allowing Fiorina to remain in the media spotlight.

3007 voters participated; percentages are listed below:

25.7        Sen. Rand Paul
21.4        Gov. Scott Walker
11.5        Sen. Ted Cruz
11.4        Dr. Ben Carson
8.3          Former Gov. Jeb Bush
4.3          Former Sen. Rick Santorum
3.7          Sen. Marco Rubio
3.5          Donald Trump
3.0          Carly Fiorina
2.8          Gov. Chris Christie
1.1          Former Gov. Rick Perry
0.9          Gov. Bobby Jindal
0.8          Former Gov. Sarah Palin
0.3          Former Gov. Mike Huckabee
0.3          Former Ambassador John Bolton
0.1          Sen. Lindsey Graham
0.1          Former Gov. George Pataki
1.0          Undecided
0.7          Other

The problem for the Reps was that no plurality exists – not even from a group that is on the right edge of the Republican spectrum.  And that has been the fly in the ointment since 2008.  If this group cannot solidly back a candidate given a fairly narrow political conservative agenda, how will the Republicans identify a champion who can get them to 270 electoral votes in 2016?  If the Grand Old Party aspires to a seat in the Oval Office, the playbook cannot be adapted from The Lord of the Flies.  Instead, the path forward must come down to the party’s ability to control the will to power of many of the potential candidates, synthesize the messaging and reconnect with the growing number of Reps-turned-independents/Libertarians.  They forgot that in 2008 and 2012. 

Maybe the third time will be a charm for them in 2016, but after analyzing the results of the CPAC straw poll and listening to the party rhetoric for two days, if the Republicans want to win in 2016, candid conversations need to occur which involve the potential entrants and some will need to be cheerleaders, not combatants.

Comments and thoughts welcome. 

In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, the Bench Jockeys have released odds for the 2016 nomination.  We will keep this tracker up to date as entrants declare and drop out and as political fortunes rise and fall in the GOP.

This year we have the added pleasure of offering the odds (albeit a bookmaker’s dream) for those vying for the nomination on the Democrat ticket.  Hint:  Hillary Clinton is a presently at 1:7 which will only drift away from a “sure thing” if something surfaces from the investigations involving Benghazi or the foreign government money accepted by the Clinton Foundation. 

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Democrat and Republican races for the White House. 

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the 2016 nomination.

Democrats

* Registered Ind. may run as a Dem.    

♤ Odds updated 3/7/15

Republicans

 ♢ Odds updated 3/7/15

Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

Unable to shake the sexual harassment allegations, Cain is slipping; unable to offer cogent debate on a national level, Perry is sliding; and unable to seem younger and a more plausible presidential option, Paul is plummeting.  Bachmann (who performed well in the recent South Carolina debate) let her campaign team get  caught up in complaining rather than having them push her exposure-limited, but effective, responses.  Huntsman and Santorum are not getting enough network airtime and they are suffering greatly for it. BT Dubs, is Gary Johnson still a candidate?

Our latest GOP odds for the nomination are posted below:

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. None of them can get an invite to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

With Barbour, Huckabee, and Trump already standing on the sidelines, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is the latest to decline to square off with the remaining Republican candidates in an effort to wrestle the White House away from President Obama.

The Bench Jockeys thought that Daniels had a legitimate chance to secure the nomination as an 8:1 contender – the third highest ratio from our oddsmaking team.  Citing the needs of a rather complex family dynamic (that we will avoid condensing and characterizing in this update) Daniels no doubt looked at the scrutiny that his family would be placed under and opted out.  The mean-spirited attacks by a sensationalized media machine, which is more likely to create the news than it is to report it, is reason enough to avoid the spotlight.  Why would anyone really want to run for President and put his/her family, friends and loved ones through such unmitigated scrutiny?  And when the media controls an unapologetic and unconsequenced dogmatic platform, how can the real story even be told?  I’m not saying we need censorship, just accountability.  But that’s another blog topic…

It has been a rather tough 30 days on the slate of GOP hopefuls – and that is exactly why we developed our odds-tracker.  See ( http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/  ) so you can keep the entirety of the race in context.  Daniels’ exit benefits Tim Pawlenty, and we are now calling him the GOP nomination favorite at 3:1, edging past Mitt Romney at 7:2.  Upticks also go to Jim DeMint, Alan West and Rick Santorum.  Endorsements from Daniels and Huckabee may decide this marathon.

Although we only considered him a fringe player in terms of actual candidacy for the Republican nomination, we did fear  that support for his Presidential run would come from voters who would just want to see what happened if he won.  (Kind of like not being able to turn away from a crash.)  Although we are not convinced that at some point he may try to reappear as the self-proclaimed party savior, we are knocking his odds down to 1000:1 – he still remains a better shot at being nominated by the GOP than Fred Karger or Tom Miller, folks who are actually seeking the Presidency.

Still, we are kind of bummed that we won’t be able to wear 2012 election swag and T-shirts that say: “Elect Trump or there will be Hell Toupee.”

As for the front-runners, we think our odds on Mitt, Mitch and Newt are pretty close, but Tim Pawlenty edges up to a dead-heat with Romney in the aftermath of Huckabee’s statement.  During the May 5th South Carolina Debates, candidate Tim Pawlenty stated that even he was a Huckabee fan and we think many of Huck’s Army will shift to Pawlenty, at least until Daniels makes it official.  Romney would have been better off with Huckabee in the race since the support that Huckabee would have garnered now must go somewhere, but it is not likely to go to Mitt.  With Huckabee out, those “so-con” votes will only strengthen the camps of Romney’s remaining top tier opponents. 

To view a comprehensive list of the latest Presidential odds, click   http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/

In 1905, the US switched to a system of primaries designed to assign delegates/votes to party-based candidates.  Since the initiation of the primary system, the only President to decline to compete for his party’s nomination for a second term was LBJ – who smelled blood in the water after only narrowly beating Eugene McCarthy in the New Hampshire primary while fearing the political clout of Bobby Kennedy.

Among the GOP contenders, Paddy Power grades Mitt Romney at 10:1 and Mitch Daniels is at 12:1 to win the 2012 election.  The Bench Jockeys odds posted on the following page contemplate the likelihood of securing the GOP nomination, not the 2012 popular election; however, we are giving newly designated CIA Director, General David Petraeus a downgrade to 30:1.  We think Petraeus will have his hands full in Langley as he is ultimately responsible for being the nation’s eyes and ears; it is unlikely he will contemplate a run in 2012 so soon after assuming the helm at the CIA.  We think he is more of a candidate in 2016.  Further, as a “Rockefeller Republican” – a pro-business, socially liberal New Englander – he is a bit outside the current direction of the GOP.

As for ripple impacts on the remaining 34 potential candidates, The Bench Jockeys are tweaking Gingrich, Huckabee and Daniels.  With Barbour out,  Huckabee and Gingrich remains the only “southerners” in the race.  (We know Newt was born in Pennsylvania, but he is a Georgia boy and we see him doing well from Louisiana to South Carolina.  And we also know that Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Bobby Jindal are on our list and are in leadership positions in southern sates, but none of them qualify as “southerners.”)  Huckabee has a tough decision to make since a declaration of candidacy would result in the suspension of his Fox News deal, but Barbour’s withdraw helps Big Mike.  But it is Mitch Daniels who gets the biggest boost from the departure of former RNC Chair Barbour since the old school Barbour fundraising machine would find an ideologically compatible and more than willing war-chest in the Daniels camp. 

NOTE:  Look for Ron Paul to announce his interest in one last run for the nomination in the next 24 hours.

Click to our 2012 odds at  http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/

Check to our contenders and pretenders Page at http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Republican race against Barack Obama.  We have also included a few Independents and a Libertarian just to stay trendy, but we all know that the President will emerge from either the Republican or Democratic ranks.  As additional candidates step into the fray, we will keep you posted with updates and current odds.  When news happens that impacts a particular candidate’s odds of being selected by his/her party, we will tweet about it and post to this page.  Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the Repulican Party’s nomination for the 2012 Presidential Election.

 **For the Independents and Libertarians, odds posted are the odds of winning the presidency. 

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.