On Friday, higher seeds prevailed in 15 of the 16 matchups but even in a tournament where only 5 lower seeds emerged victorious in the 32 first round games, there is only 1 entry out the 11.57 million entries on ESPN’s Tournament Challenge that picked all 32 contests correctly.  1!  There are 38 entries that had 31 of the 32 teams picked correctly;  that’s .000328% of all ESPN’s brackets.   So when Iowa State and Baylor fell before you left the office on Thursday and you tore your office pool bracket sheet to shreds, feel some solace that you were not alone.  In fact, you might want to pull that baby out of the trashcan and tape that it back together.  As long as you didn’t have the Cyclones or Bears advancing too far, you may be still in line for a payday, because on the whole, favorites did much better than they have in recent years.  The chalk still talks going into the weekend games.

And speaking of a payout, I will leave you with this report from Vegas… Kentucky was 1:500 to beat Hampton and some schlub bet $600 on Kentucky.  The spoils of his wager… $1.20.

In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, the Bench Jockeys have released odds for the 2016 nomination.  We will keep this tracker up to date as entrants declare and drop out and as political fortunes rise and fall in the GOP.

This year we have the added pleasure of offering the odds (albeit a bookmaker’s dream) for those vying for the nomination on the Democrat ticket.  Hint:  Hillary Clinton is a presently at 1:7 which will only drift away from a “sure thing” if something surfaces from the investigations involving Benghazi or the foreign government money accepted by the Clinton Foundation. 

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Democrat and Republican races for the White House. 

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the 2016 nomination.

Democrats

* Registered Ind. may run as a Dem.    

♤ Odds updated 3/7/15

Republicans

 ♢ Odds updated 3/7/15

Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

Unable to shake the sexual harassment allegations, Cain is slipping; unable to offer cogent debate on a national level, Perry is sliding; and unable to seem younger and a more plausible presidential option, Paul is plummeting.  Bachmann (who performed well in the recent South Carolina debate) let her campaign team get  caught up in complaining rather than having them push her exposure-limited, but effective, responses.  Huntsman and Santorum are not getting enough network airtime and they are suffering greatly for it. BT Dubs, is Gary Johnson still a candidate?

Our latest GOP odds for the nomination are posted below:

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. None of them can get an invite to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

Although The Bench Jockeys would have enjoyed seeing what Chris Christie brought to the table or listening to Sarah Palin wrangle with Michele Bachmann (meow) during the next round of debates, it appears that we will have to settle for one of these 12 declared candidates.  In version 3.0 of The Bench Jockeys “Odds to Win the GOP Nomination” we have grouped the dirty dozen into quartets.  Unless something absolutely stunning happens, those in the 2^nd Tier (and the bottom half of the 1^st Tier) have some serious work to do in order to get into contention into what is essentially a two horse race.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. Three of them can’t even get invited to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

We are also of the strong opinion – as we stated in version 2.0 – that Marco Rubio is the natural VP selection.  However, Herman Cain’s straw poll victory in Florida clouds that picture a bit.  That being said, we bet that Florida would have selected Rubio in a mano-a-mano match-up between Marco and Herman.

Tier 1

Tier 2

To view Tiers 3 and 4 click here: http://thebenchjockeys.com/2012-gop-nomination-odds-2-0/

In this iteration of our odds-making, we have winnowed the field and have scratched Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels to reflect their current intentions to remain on the sidelines.  However, if the citizenry truly begins to seek to limit Obama to one term, we would not discount the possibility of any of the above-named individuals re-entering the process.  David Petraeus, Conde Rice and Bob McDonnell seem to be either content with their existing positions or lack the moxie for a run at the Presidency so we have pulled them from the list.  Others who have not declared have now been relegated to our off-line fourth tier and have been dropped from this GOP Nom 2.0 list.  Those seeking to examine our original 40 candidate list will find a jump-link below:

http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/

We will continue to maintain the comprehensive list on a stand alone page, keeping our odds current while considering trending.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Although we have downgraded him with respect to the 2012 election, we absolutely see Marco Rubio as a potential VP candidate.  The old guard Republicans would be wise to include Rubio on their ticket in an effort to pass the torch to the next gen of the GOP while they can still wield some influence on him.   Considering the expanding Latino demographic shift in the US, Rubio’s oratory strength and his fiscally conservative economic platform, his selection by the party should be a no-brainer.  But then again, the GOP paired John McCain with “the maverick” in 2008, so who knows….

Tier 3

Tier 4 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning

With Barbour, Huckabee, and Trump already standing on the sidelines, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is the latest to decline to square off with the remaining Republican candidates in an effort to wrestle the White House away from President Obama.

The Bench Jockeys thought that Daniels had a legitimate chance to secure the nomination as an 8:1 contender – the third highest ratio from our oddsmaking team.  Citing the needs of a rather complex family dynamic (that we will avoid condensing and characterizing in this update) Daniels no doubt looked at the scrutiny that his family would be placed under and opted out.  The mean-spirited attacks by a sensationalized media machine, which is more likely to create the news than it is to report it, is reason enough to avoid the spotlight.  Why would anyone really want to run for President and put his/her family, friends and loved ones through such unmitigated scrutiny?  And when the media controls an unapologetic and unconsequenced dogmatic platform, how can the real story even be told?  I’m not saying we need censorship, just accountability.  But that’s another blog topic…

It has been a rather tough 30 days on the slate of GOP hopefuls – and that is exactly why we developed our odds-tracker.  See ( http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/  ) so you can keep the entirety of the race in context.  Daniels’ exit benefits Tim Pawlenty, and we are now calling him the GOP nomination favorite at 3:1, edging past Mitt Romney at 7:2.  Upticks also go to Jim DeMint, Alan West and Rick Santorum.  Endorsements from Daniels and Huckabee may decide this marathon.

Although we only considered him a fringe player in terms of actual candidacy for the Republican nomination, we did fear  that support for his Presidential run would come from voters who would just want to see what happened if he won.  (Kind of like not being able to turn away from a crash.)  Although we are not convinced that at some point he may try to reappear as the self-proclaimed party savior, we are knocking his odds down to 1000:1 – he still remains a better shot at being nominated by the GOP than Fred Karger or Tom Miller, folks who are actually seeking the Presidency.

Still, we are kind of bummed that we won’t be able to wear 2012 election swag and T-shirts that say: “Elect Trump or there will be Hell Toupee.”

As for the front-runners, we think our odds on Mitt, Mitch and Newt are pretty close, but Tim Pawlenty edges up to a dead-heat with Romney in the aftermath of Huckabee’s statement.  During the May 5th South Carolina Debates, candidate Tim Pawlenty stated that even he was a Huckabee fan and we think many of Huck’s Army will shift to Pawlenty, at least until Daniels makes it official.  Romney would have been better off with Huckabee in the race since the support that Huckabee would have garnered now must go somewhere, but it is not likely to go to Mitt.  With Huckabee out, those “so-con” votes will only strengthen the camps of Romney’s remaining top tier opponents. 

To view a comprehensive list of the latest Presidential odds, click   http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/

• 1. Archarcharch   10-1
• 2. Brilliant Speed  30-1
• 3. Twice the Appeal  20-1
• 4. Stay Thirsty  20-1
• 5. Decisive Moment  30-1
• 6. Comma to the Top  30-1
• 7. Pants on Fire  20-1
• 8. Dialed In  4-1
• 9. Derby Kitten  30-1
• 10. Twinspired  30-1
• 11. Master of Hounds  30-1
• 12. Santiva  30-1
• 13. Mucho Macho Man  12-1
• 14. Shackleford  12-1
• 15. Midnight Interlude  10-1
• 16. Animal Kingdom  30-1
• 17. Soldat  12-1
• 18. Uncle Mo  9-2
• 19. Nehro  6-1
• 20. Watch Me Go  50-1