And now our newest feature… GOP Electoral Face-off odds vs. Obama.

The current count does not consider the impact of the GOP running mate or the potential VP switcheroo of Joe Biden and Hillary Clinton.

Issue 2.  Despite never having won a Grand Slam event, Caroline Wozniacki continues to retain the top rank in the WTA.  The Dane will again be designated as a number 1 seed as the first Slam event of the year – the Aussie Open – commences later this month.  Unfortunately, C-Woz has suffered premature exits over the course of the 2011 Grand Slam events:  Australian – ousted in the Semis; French – 3^rd Round departure; Wimbledon – 4^th Round loss; US – eliminated in the Semis, and aside from a 2009 US Open finals appearance, she continues to underwhelm in the majors.  Wozniacki does feast on the smaller venues, but Petra Kvitova is gaining ground and should slip past Wozniacki shortly.  Nevertheless, Caroline is the poster girl for women’s tennis and is already featured on the 2012 US Open promotional materials.

Third. Can Ron Paul win the GOP nomination?   In a word, “No.”  In spite of the 3^rd place in Iowa and his 2^nd place in NH, Ron Paul cannot beat Barack Obama if Paul were to be selected as the GOP’s candidate.  And the GOP strategists know it.  The good doctor’s second place finish in New Hampshire speaks more to the lack of a solid contender, than it does to the serious consideration of Paul’s candidacy.  It also is an indicator that the GOP is not ready to coalesce behind Romney.  Paul will stay in this race and carve off enough of a vote to keep Mitt’s other opponents at bay.  That’s great for Romney winning primaries but bad for both 1) the GOP which will continue to experience a lack of plurality for Mitt’s candidacy and 2) the remaining four candidates who will be unable to mount a challenge.

Jon Huntsman absolutely needed to top Ron Paul in New Hampshire, and even amid Huntsman’s claims that he is “in the hunt,” Big Bad Jon will likely be out between South Carolina on January 21st and Nevada on February 4^th.  Perry must get a significant bounce out of the southern swing in SC and Florida or he will be next to cash in his chips.  Santorum’s second place finish in Iowa (or possibly victory in Iowa if you believe the conspiracy theorists) will allow him to get to Super Tuesday (March 6^th) provided he is not taken to the woodshed in Florida on January 31^st and does something in Arizona and Michigan on February 28^th.

And that leaves Newt.  Aside from someone jumping into the fray before too many delegates are allocated, GOP faithful, Gingrich is your Plan B.

Unable to shake the sexual harassment allegations, Cain is slipping; unable to offer cogent debate on a national level, Perry is sliding; and unable to seem younger and a more plausible presidential option, Paul is plummeting.  Bachmann (who performed well in the recent South Carolina debate) let her campaign team get  caught up in complaining rather than having them push her exposure-limited, but effective, responses.  Huntsman and Santorum are not getting enough network airtime and they are suffering greatly for it. BT Dubs, is Gary Johnson still a candidate?

Our latest GOP odds for the nomination are posted below:

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. None of them can get an invite to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

Although The Bench Jockeys would have enjoyed seeing what Chris Christie brought to the table or listening to Sarah Palin wrangle with Michele Bachmann (meow) during the next round of debates, it appears that we will have to settle for one of these 12 declared candidates.  In version 3.0 of The Bench Jockeys “Odds to Win the GOP Nomination” we have grouped the dirty dozen into quartets.  Unless something absolutely stunning happens, those in the 2^nd Tier (and the bottom half of the 1^st Tier) have some serious work to do in order to get into contention into what is essentially a two horse race.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. Three of them can’t even get invited to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

We are also of the strong opinion – as we stated in version 2.0 – that Marco Rubio is the natural VP selection.  However, Herman Cain’s straw poll victory in Florida clouds that picture a bit.  That being said, we bet that Florida would have selected Rubio in a mano-a-mano match-up between Marco and Herman.

Last night, while DVRing the debate, the stars aligned to allow yours truly to snake Ray Rice as the 6^th pick of the draft.  6^th!  Although I had to change draft strategies on the fly, I am thrilled with the opportunity to own Ray-Ray through the 2012 election.   Interestingly, four game-tested QBs were selected in the first 13 picks, as a significant percentage of the owners did not want to be saddled with an inexperienced leader at the reigns.  Does that perhaps portend the proclivities of the populace?

However, the more intriguing development was the way Jamaal Charles (touted by the media as a top five selection) plummeted all the way to pick #11.  He was the fantasy equivalent of Newt Gingrich – chock full of spin and promise but ultimately dropping off of the radar when the doubts started to surface.  The media can try to establish the market, but a discerning and involved public understands far more than the pabulum that it is fed.   As I watched the post-mortem on the debate, I was positively disgusted at the manner in which a purportedly unbiased media portrayed each candidate as hero or villain depending on the particular leanings of each pundit.  Make no mistake, the media control the message far better and far more effectively than any campaign manager.  The media has the forum and the capacity to bombard the airways with any sound bite, whether favorable or devastating to a candidate, relative to any subject matter.  The only way that a voter can make a truly informed decision is through an individualized analysis, and honestly, who has the time to rifle through the interwebs to fact-check every candidate?  No one.  And that’s exactly what the media counts on.

So open up wide, America.  CNN, NBC and FOX will keep feeding you their agendas and you can just keep swallowing or, maybe, just maybe, you will come to the voting booths on November 6, 2012 with a well-researched portfolio of facts, data and trend analysis where you can formulate your own decisions about the leadership of this great country.

Tier 1

Tier 2

To view Tiers 3 and 4 click here: http://thebenchjockeys.com/2012-gop-nomination-odds-2-0/

In this iteration of our odds-making, we have winnowed the field and have scratched Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels to reflect their current intentions to remain on the sidelines.  However, if the citizenry truly begins to seek to limit Obama to one term, we would not discount the possibility of any of the above-named individuals re-entering the process.  David Petraeus, Conde Rice and Bob McDonnell seem to be either content with their existing positions or lack the moxie for a run at the Presidency so we have pulled them from the list.  Others who have not declared have now been relegated to our off-line fourth tier and have been dropped from this GOP Nom 2.0 list.  Those seeking to examine our original 40 candidate list will find a jump-link below:

http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/

We will continue to maintain the comprehensive list on a stand alone page, keeping our odds current while considering trending.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Although we have downgraded him with respect to the 2012 election, we absolutely see Marco Rubio as a potential VP candidate.  The old guard Republicans would be wise to include Rubio on their ticket in an effort to pass the torch to the next gen of the GOP while they can still wield some influence on him.   Considering the expanding Latino demographic shift in the US, Rubio’s oratory strength and his fiscally conservative economic platform, his selection by the party should be a no-brainer.  But then again, the GOP paired John McCain with “the maverick” in 2008, so who knows….

Tier 3

Tier 4 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning

As for the front-runners, we think our odds on Mitt, Mitch and Newt are pretty close, but Tim Pawlenty edges up to a dead-heat with Romney in the aftermath of Huckabee’s statement.  During the May 5th South Carolina Debates, candidate Tim Pawlenty stated that even he was a Huckabee fan and we think many of Huck’s Army will shift to Pawlenty, at least until Daniels makes it official.  Romney would have been better off with Huckabee in the race since the support that Huckabee would have garnered now must go somewhere, but it is not likely to go to Mitt.  With Huckabee out, those “so-con” votes will only strengthen the camps of Romney’s remaining top tier opponents. 

To view a comprehensive list of the latest Presidential odds, click   http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/