October 5, 2011 – According to the United Nations and barring some unforeseen catastrophe, the world’s population is projected to cross the 7,000,000,000 threshold this Halloween, October 31, 2011.  That seems rather appropriate since “The Day of 7 Billion,” as it is known, absolutely horrifies me.  Each day – we are talking each day, folks – the number of humans on the earth grows by more than 221,000.  This is not just births; this is births less deaths.  And because the population grows at an exponential rate, the per day growth rate edges up each day. 

In 1960, the world population was estimated at 3 billion.  We hit the 6 billion mark in 1999.  Let’s break that down a bit:  from all of antiquity up to 1960 to attain a population of 3 billion and then just another 39 years to double it.  In 1999, the United Nations estimated that we would reach the 7 billion mark in 2013.  Humans, being the overachievers that we are, will meet this troublesome milestone two years early. 

And here is the scary part.  Since the turn of the new millennium, we have been told that we are much more aware of the impact of unchecked population growth and we are much more proactive with respect to woman’s health needs; we have been told how fertility rates are declining and how the use of contraception has reached the developing world.  I don’t see it.  We went from 6 billion to 7 billion in 12 years.  That’s a growth rate of 1.3%.  It’s lower than it was in the 60’s, but it’s still too high.  In the UN’s 1999 Report, “The World at Six Billion,” the United Nations Population Division suggested that we would hit the

• 7 billion mark in 2013              (14 years from the 6B threshold);
• 8 billion in 2028                       (15 years from the 7B threshold);
• 9 billion in 2054                       (26 years from the 8B threshold);
• 10 billion in 2183                     (129 years from the 9B threshold). 

The United Nations Population Division surely can see that the data plots an ever-decreasing interval for each successive billion in growth up to 1999.  What possible factor could they have considered to account for a sudden reversal in the trend line?  For the UN’s numbers to work, as the population reaches 8 and 9 billion, the growth rate will need to be less than 1% – a rate we have not even sniffed.  And the UN projection of reaching 10 billion in 2183 is ludicrous.  That would require a growth rate of a mere .082% (not .82%, .082%) over that 129 years.  Who reviewed this document?  Assuming that there are no cataclysmic events, The Bench Jockeys will bet every collective cent they own that the 10 billion mark will be attained by 2050 – that would still require 38 years of less than a 1% growth rate, a ratio we have well-exceeded for the last 4 billion souls.

In 1987 Southern Methodist University was issued the harshest consequence that the NCAA could levy after it was confirmed that 13 players from the 1985 & 1986 Mustang team were paid a total of $61K from a booster’s slush fund with the full knowledge and approval of SMU athletic department staff and SMU Board of Governors Chair (and eventual Texas Governor) Bill Clements.  The NCAA canceled SMU’s 1987 season, restricted the 1988 season to away games only, banned SMU from bowl games until 1989 and eliminated 55 scholarships over four years.

In addition to the high profile matters involving the Hurricanes, the Buckeyes and of course Cecil Newton Jr’s. proposed sale of his son, Cam, to Mississippi State , this past year’s investigations regarding player pay-outs, recruiting violations, expenses to “scouting services” and informal agent relationships involving major college programs at Alabama, Auburn, Oregon, Michigan, Texas, UNC, LSU and Georgia Tech are just the beginning.  Mark Emmert who was appointed as CEO of the NCAA last fall, has his hands full, but unless he takes firm action, this cavalcade of indecorum may only be the tip of the iceberg.   If shady dealings are happening at all of these schools, who is to say it is not the norm, rather than the exception?  No matter what the intentions of the recruiters, local merchants, boosters or would-be agents, cash-strapped 17 to 21 year olds who have been heralded for their athletic prowess are going to be easy pickings.  And because many of these improprieties do not come to light until after the students graduate, future student-athletes within these programs will be the ones who suffer.  Sure, Reggie Bush lost his Heisman, but he is still playing in the NFL and he is still paid for what he can do on the field.

The NCAA has to do more than just the forfeiture of games and the reduction in scholarships.  Given the interconnectedness of schools in viewer-rich conferences, airplay bans will adversely impact the TV revenue of schools which have committed no wrongdoing.  Although such a ban might create more accountability among conference members, at this rate, the SEC would lose half of its teams to black-outs.  And again, these actions impact future students, coaches and leadership, not the ones who actually committed the infractions.  The scenario is not unlike our toothless United Nations.  Unless unified and comprehensive military action is invoked, all of the sanctions and public derision in the world do not change behavior.  It has been several years since the UN issued sanctions in North Korea and Iran, what is different?   In 1992, the UN invoked its initial set of sanctions against Libya.  It took 19 years for the regime to change, but it did not happen until the rhetoric ended and the airstrikes began.

Right now the reward for breaking the rules far outweighs the risk.  Just like Kim Jong Il and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad thumb their respective snouts at the world’s cooperative assembly, so too will college football insiders continue to violate the rules and roll the dice with the NCAA.  Winning college football programs mean piles of money to the university, prestige for alumni and future individual professional deals.  And because the so-called “death penalty” is more like a 2 year sentence in juvie, there is no reason to not conduct business as usual with multi-layered pay-outs and an array of strawmen doing the bidding of the programs.  Unless the NCAA follows the money and levies more individualized and career-altering consequences, the days of college football as an amateur sport will draw to a close.