Learn from Draft History or Be Condemned to Repeat it
With the NFL draft looming, The Bench Jockeys did a little research on the top 10 picks over the last 12 years to determine from what draft board selection position was a draftee most likely to start and remain a factor in the NFL. We looked at the player selections from 1999 to 2010 and ranked the draftees based upon their NFL longevity versus standard player career of four seasons and whether they were a starter or role player. Players were graded A thru D with an A rating receiving 4 points and a D rating counting as only 1 point. For all the talk about draft positions and the escalating salaries for certain selections, it is our firm conclusion that in reviewing draft history over the last 12 years, the first selection and the sixth selection are the least likely to produce a starter or long term performer with a performance rating of only 3.25, while the fifth pick yielded the highest success with a 3.83 rating.
Digging deeper, players like Eric Berry, Mark Sanchez, AJ Hawk, Sean Taylor, Quentin Jammer and workhorse Jamal Lewis all emerged from the 5-hole over the last 12 years, whereas Purple Drank Russell, Alex Smith, David Carr, Tim Couch (interestingly all QBs) and the very mediocre Courtney Brown were all #1 picks over the last 12 years. So Carolina, as you weigh the “can’t miss” hype about QBs Gabbert and Newton, The Bench Jockeys suggest you either:
- a) Do the right thing and pick Marcell Dareus;
- b) Trade down a little with Buffalo (3) or Arizona (5), save some cash and take Von Miller or Patrick Peterson; or
- c) Trade down a bit more, fleece desperate Tennessee (8) or Minnesota (12) and build for the future with additional picks.
Fast Fact: Over the last 15 years (1996 – 2010), it is not surprising that the Lions have had the most top 5 picks with 6 selections; however, the Cardinals will move into a tie with Detroit if Arizona hangs onto their 5th pick in this year’s draft. Poor Larry Fitz; he has to be praying the Cards make a run at McNabb.
Teams will not be able to contact players once they draft them. No advance prep, playbook study, or mentoring from current NFL players for these players thus making the jump the NFL a more daunting proposition. If the lockout goes long, it will be interesting to see if a greater percentage of 2011 draft picks get released before this season or next.
It simply may be a matter of teams needing more veterans who know the NFL system. If the lockout ends in September, there is no way that some of the kids will be ready for the NFL with a couple weeks practice. Compound that with the number of new coaches and systems in the NFL in 2011 and guys like Sammy Morris will be more valuable than the stud Tailback from Auburn.
Dude, lol. you have a way with words, even if your not trying to be funny. Great stuff