2012 GOP Presidential Candidates Odds 2.0

The GOP hopefuls will be back at it again in Iowa on August 11th.   As the candidates size up one another under the watchful eye of FOX News, the Bench Jockeys thought it was time to separate the contenders from the pretenders and develop a tiered chart for easy review.  On this chart, we have maintained our original opening odds from April 12, 2011 along with each candidate’s current odds to win the nomination (as we see it).  A separate designation (A) has been added for those candidate who have officially entered the fracas.

In this iteration of our odds-making, we have winnowed the field and have scratched Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels to reflect their current intentions to remain on the sidelines.  However, if the citizenry truly begins to seek to limit Obama to one term, we would not discount the possibility of any of the above-named individuals re-entering the process.  David Petraeus, Conde Rice and Bob McDonnell seem to be either content with their existing positions or lack the moxie for a run at the Presidency so we have pulled them from the list.  Others who have not declared have now been relegated to our off-line fourth tier and have been dropped from this GOP Nom 2.0 list.  Those seeking to examine our original 40 candidate list will find a jump-link below:


We will continue to maintain the comprehensive list on a stand alone page, keeping our odds current while considering trending.

Tier 1

Candidate Background Status Open Current
Mitt Romney Former Gov – MA A 7:2 3:1
Tim Pawlenty Current Gov – MN A 4:1 5:1
Rick Perry Current Gov – TX 50:1 12:1
Ron Paul Current US Rep – TX  A 9:1 15:1
Jim DeMint Current US Sen – SC 14:1 18:1

Tier 2

Candidate Background Status Open Current
Michele Bachmann Current US Rep – MN A 25:1 22:1
Herman Cain Former Fed Reserve A 25:1 25:1
Chris Christie Current Gov – NJ 18:1 25:1
Marco Rubio Current US Sen – FL 20:1 25:1
Bobby Jindal Current Gov – LA 30:1 30:1
Sarah Palin Former Gov – AK 25:1 35:1
Jon Huntsman Former Gov – UT A 40:1 35:1

Although we have downgraded him with respect to the 2012 election, we absolutely see Marco Rubio as a potential VP candidate.  The old guard Republicans would be wise to include Rubio on their ticket in an effort to pass the torch to the next gen of the GOP while they can still wield some influence on him.   Considering the expanding Latino demographic shift in the US, Rubio’s oratory strength and his fiscally conservative economic platform, his selection by the party should be a no-brainer.  But then again, the GOP paired John McCain with “the maverick” in 2008, so who knows….

Tier 3

Candidate Background Status Open Current
Jeb Bush Former Gov – FL 50:1 50:1
Newt Gingrich Former Spkr of House A 12:1 60:1
Allen West Current US Rep – FL 100:1 80:1
Rudy Giuliani Former Mayor – NYC 200:1 200:1
Rick Santorum Former US Sen – PA A 1000:1 250:1

Tier 4 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning

Candidate Background Status Open Current
Thad McCotter Current US Rep – MI A none 750:1
Gary Johnson Former Gov – NM A 500:1 1000:1
Buddy Roemer Former Gov – LA A 5000:1 5000:1
Fred Karger Political Consultant A a trillion:1 a trillion:1
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One Response to “2012 GOP Presidential Candidates Odds 2.0”

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