And Then There Were 3

Posted in US Politics on January 24th, 2012 by Ian Paregol

Besides being a great album by Genesis, only two primaries into the nomination process, all the fun is almost over.  Yes, I know that Rick Santorum is still technically in the GOP race, but let’s face facts; he is not going to emerge as the GOP’s 2012 nominee.  That is unless, of course, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney damage each other so badly with assertions and accusations that neither candidate is deemed electable by the party.  Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment is now a distant memory which is surprising since Gingrich uses every opportunity he gets to align his philosophies with those of The Great Communicator.  Gingrich’s goading forced Mitt to take the gloves off in Florida, and I will not be shocked if someone finds himself in a headlock during Florida Part Deux.  Mitt and Newt are making the President’s re-election campaign far too easy.  Painting each other as Read more »

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2012 Facts

Posted in US Politics on January 10th, 2012 by Ian Paregol

Well, what have we learned in the last 24 hours:  Tigers can lay eggs; Caroline Wozniacki is still a hot property; and Ron Paul is not dead yet.  Let’s start with LSU, shall we?  The LSU Tigers are still trying to score a point in New Orleans.  The beating that ’Bama put on the LSU in the BCS National Championship Game was epic.  LSU managed just five first downs and 92 total yards on a night that was dominated by Alabama’s defense.  But that’s not the whole story.  LSU’s 53 yards of passing was offset by four sacks and resulting in a net passing game of 27 yards and total offense production of Read more »

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Late Rounders

Posted in Sport/Pol Crossover, US Politics on October 20th, 2011 by Craig Zuckerman

You know that feeling you get around the 9th round of your Fantasy Football draft?  You’ve assembled your starting team, and may have even selected your Kicker and a back-up or two.  The pickings are getting slim.  You have your re-treads, guys you may never have heard of depending on your level of prep work, some big mouths trying to make a name for themselves, a whole host of back-ups, some injured guys who “could” start if a medical miracle happened, and of course, the long shot.

Reminds me of the current GOP Presidential candidates.  Newt Gingrich is the ultimate re-tread.  Nothing left on the tires except Read more »

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2012 GOP Nomination Odds 3.0

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on October 5th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

October 4, 2011 – It’s been another 2 months and time is running out on the wallflowers waiting for an invitation to join the other Republican hopefuls who are looking to be crowned Prom King (or Queen) in Tampa.  With five states holding primaries in January (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and now Florida), it would appear that everyone who is interested in pursuing the GOP Nomination for the 2012 election has announced his or her candidacy (or better announce soon). 

Although The Bench Jockeys would have enjoyed seeing what Chris Christie brought to the table or listening to Sarah Palin wrangle with Michele Bachmann (meow) during the next round of debates, it appears that we will have to settle for one of these 12 declared candidates.  In version 3.0 of The Bench Jockeys “Odds to Win the GOP Nomination” we have grouped the dirty dozen into quartets.  Unless something absolutely stunning happens, those in the 2nd Tier (and the bottom half of the 1st Tier) have some serious work to do in order to get into contention into what is essentially a two horse race.

Tier 1

Candidate Background Open Current
Mitt Romney Former Gov – MA 7:2 3:2
Rick Perry Current Gov – TX 50:1 8:1
Ron Paul Current US Rep – TX 9:1 15:1
Herman Cain Former Fed Reserve 25:1 24:1

Tier 2

Candidate Background Open Current
Michele Bachmann Current US Rep – MN 25:1 30:1
Newt Gingrich Former Spkr of House 12:1 37:1
Jon Huntsman Former Gov – UT 40:1 40:1
Rick Santorum Former US Sen – PA 1000:1 100:1

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. Three of them can’t even get invited to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

Candidate Background Open Current
Gary Johnson Former Gov – NM 500:1 1000:1
Thad McCotter Current US Rep – MI none 2500:1
Buddy Roemer Former Gov – LA 5000:1 5000:1
Fred Karger Political Consultant a trillion:1 a bazillion:1

We are also of the strong opinion – as we stated in version 2.0 – that Marco Rubio is the natural VP selection.  However, Herman Cain’s straw poll victory in Florida clouds that picture a bit.  That being said, we bet that Florida would have selected Rubio in a mano-a-mano match-up between Marco and Herman.

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GOP Fantasy Draft Kit

Posted in Sport/Pol Crossover, US Politics on September 8th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Sept 8, 2011 – What did we learn from last night’s GOP gab-fest in Simi Valley, Cali?  As far as potential presidential candidates, Mitt Romney looks to be losing his grip on the #1 slot, Rick Perry is gaining ground, Michele Bachmann’s numbers are slipping, Ron Paul is getting older, and no matter how smart Jon Huntsman is, no one is picking him – possibly because of the team he played for last year.  In fact, the whole ranking of GOP hopefuls is not unlike the Fantasy Football draft which 3 of the 4 Bench Jockeys have participated in for the last 20 years and which took place at the exact same time as the Republican debate.  Not a coincidence.

Last night, while DVRing the debate, the stars aligned to allow yours truly to snake Ray Rice as the 6th pick of the draft.  6th!  Although I had to change draft strategies on the fly, I am thrilled with the opportunity to own Ray-Ray through the 2012 election.   Interestingly, four game-tested QBs were selected in the first 13 picks, as a significant percentage of the owners did not want to be saddled with an inexperienced leader at the reigns.  Does that perhaps portend the proclivities of the populace?

However, the more intriguing development was the way Jamaal Charles (touted by the media as a top five selection) plummeted all the way to pick #11.  He was the fantasy equivalent of Newt Gingrich – chock full of spin and promise but ultimately dropping off of the radar when the doubts started to surface.  The media can try to establish the market, but a discerning and involved public understands far more than the pabulum that it is fed.   As I watched the post-mortem on the debate, I was positively disgusted at the manner in which a purportedly unbiased media portrayed each candidate as hero or villain depending on the particular leanings of each pundit.  Make no mistake, the media control the message far better and far more effectively than any campaign manager.  The media has the forum and the capacity to bombard the airways with any sound bite, whether favorable or devastating to a candidate, relative to any subject matter.  The only way that a voter can make a truly informed decision is through an individualized analysis, and honestly, who has the time to rifle through the interwebs to fact-check every candidate?  No one.  And that’s exactly what the media counts on.

So open up wide, America.  CNN, NBC and FOX will keep feeding you their agendas and you can just keep swallowing or, maybe, just maybe, you will come to the voting booths on November 6, 2012 with a well-researched portfolio of facts, data and trend analysis where you can formulate your own decisions about the leadership of this great country.

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Powers Shift in Iowa; Gophers Make News in Hawkeye State

Posted in The Quick Hook, US Politics on August 14th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Although we need to get back to blogging about some sports here at The Bench Jockeys, baseball has not started its pennant run, the NFL is still in pre-season mode and tennis’ US Open is not for two weeks.  What has heated up, however, is the race for GOP Presidential Nomination.  The first measuring stick for the candidates, the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, concluded voting last nite.  Michele Bachmann snakes a win in the poll, with Ron Paul finishing second and T-Paw taking show.  But just like kissing your sister, 3rd place is not what Pawlenty was setting his sights on.   Apparently with Tim Pawlenty’s coffers beginning to run dry and his loss to fellow Minnesotian Bachmann, coupled with the entry of Rick Perry into the fray, Tim is pulling up stakes and calling it a campaign.  As a result of this stunner, we have adjusted our top two tiers.  Paul’s second place finish in Iowa, does not move his dial, but Bachmann gets a big uptick and Perry becomes the new #2 to Romney.  For those of you asking, “Where is Mitt?” Ronmey did not compete.

Tier 1

Candidate Background Status Open Current
Mitt Romney Former Gov – MA A 7:2 3:1
Rick Perry Current Gov – TX A 50:1 7:1
Michele Bachmann Current US Rep – MN  A 25:1 14:1
Ron Paul Current US Rep – TX  A 9:1 15:1

Tier 2

Candidate Background Status Open Current
Jim DeMint Current US Sen – SC 14:1 25:1
Herman Cain Former Fed Reserve A 25:1 25:1
Chris Christie Current Gov – NJ 18:1 25:1
Marco Rubio Current US Sen – FL 20:1 25:1
Bobby Jindal Current Gov – LA 30:1 30:1
Sarah Palin Former Gov – AK 25:1 35:1
Jon Huntsman Former Gov – UT A 40:1 35:1

To view Tiers 3 and 4 click here: http://thebenchjockeys.com/2012-gop-nomination-odds-2-0/

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2012 GOP Presidential Candidates Odds 2.0

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on August 9th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

The GOP hopefuls will be back at it again in Iowa on August 11th.   As the candidates size up one another under the watchful eye of FOX News, the Bench Jockeys thought it was time to separate the contenders from the pretenders and develop a tiered chart for easy review.  On this chart, we have maintained our original opening odds from April 12, 2011 along with each candidate’s current odds to win the nomination (as we see it).  A separate designation (A) has been added for those candidate who have officially entered the fracas.

In this iteration of our odds-making, we have winnowed the field and have scratched Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels to reflect their current intentions to remain on the sidelines.  However, if the citizenry truly begins to seek to limit Obama to one term, Read more »

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What Did We Learn in New Hampshire?

Posted in The Horseshoe, The Plus-Minus, US Politics on June 13th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

The June 13th New Hampshire debate, as moderated by John King of CNN, came off as a media-driven attempt to pit Republicans against one another with pointed set-ups calling into question the few issues that separate the candidates.  The seven Republicans who posted in New Hampshire did not take the bait, instead adhering to Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment given from on high in 1966 when Dutch was running for Governor of California– “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.”  King’s failed efforts to “Jerry Springerize” the first meeting of the GOP heavyweights, did  not make for exciting television, but we did learn two things:  1) without a clock to limit answer response times, the GOP candidates will talk your ears off ; and 2) the Republican candidates recognize that the common opponent is Barack Obama.  The media wants them to cannibalize one another, and each of them clearly choose the vegetarian plate.

Each candidate in Manchester is pro-life, strongly anti-union, and anything but Hawkish – with all seven suggesting that American troops need to come home.  Michele Bachmann – who filed her paperwork to run for the Republican nomination earlier today –reminded viewers that as President, she would be making military decisions as Commander-in-Chief an hour after she introduced herself as a tax lawyer.  Not too reassuring.  Ron Paul came off like an angry grandfather drifting from issue to issue, so much so that if he were in the livingroom at a family function instead of a televised debate, his kids would say, “Okay, Dad, that’ll do.”  Gingrich actually sounded the most sure of himself, filled with facts and good detail.  It’s too bad for his supporters that at this point, Newt is playing from two sets down.  Herman Cain and his point-by-point analysis played well in SC, but an encore performance was too much of the same:  no answers, just lots of consultant-speak analysis.  Santorum did not do anything to hurt is bid – read: no change in his long-shot odds.  T-Paw was adequate, but Romney was stronger tonight.  Is Gary Johnson de facto out?

The Plus-Minus breaks down as follows: The Bench Jockeys think Bachmann’s performance tonight knocks out Sarah Palin as a candidate.  Pluses go to Gingrich & Romney.  Minuses goes to Cain & Paul.  Santorum, Pawlenty and Bachmann held serve.

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Pawlenty & Others to Feast on Gingrich’s Carcass

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on June 9th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

June 9, 2011 – The race for the 2012 GOP nomination is barely out of the starting gate and Newt Gingrich is already coming up lame.  Since Newt threw his hat into the ring less than one month ago (May 11th), he has tangled with pundits targeting his fidelity, he has dodged an onslaught of intra-party criticism concerning his position on Medicare, he has verbally wrestled with Bob Schieffer on Meet The Press over his $250,000 credit limit at Tiffany’s (which, by the way, is Newt’s business, not America’s), and he been deemed “not a serious candidate” by the mainstream press as he concluded a delightful two week cruise in Turkey and Greece (against the urgings of his political machine).  However, this week’s bombshell is the cherry on the sundae.  Today, all of the top aides working for the Gingrich campaign resigned in a mass exodus, and Gingrich’s entire operation in Iowa is gone along with those persons providing leadership in the other early assessment states of New Hampshire and South Carolina.

It’s no surprise that the Bench Jockey’s oddsmaker’s are reacting very strongly to the implosion in Gingrich’s base of operations by dropping his 2012 GOP Nominations odds to 80:1.  Accordingly, The Bench Jockeys are calling Newt Gingrich all but out of the 2012 Republican Race.  In a true thinking man’s move, former Georgia Governor, Sonny Perdue, was immediately hired by Gingrich rival (and Bench Jockeys’ 3:1 favorite) Tim Pawlenty to assist in T-Paw’s national campaign strategy.  We also feel that Newt’s departure also opens the door for Texas Governor Rick Perry.  Rob Johnson and David Carney – two of Gingrich’s former lead strategists – are FOP (Friends of Perry).  And because Johnson and Carney need to eat, we are giving Gov. Perry’s odds an up-tick.

In the meantime, Gingrich is using Facebook to keep his waning supporters in tow, declaring through social media, “I am committed to running the substantive, solutions-oriented campaign I set out to run earlier this spring.  The campaign begins anew Sunday in Los Angeles.”  Maybe he should also place an ad in the Help Wanted section of The Des Moines Register, oh, and maybe one in the Obituaries.

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Daniels Opts Out of 2012 Run

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on May 22nd, 2011 by Ian Paregol

May 22 – Although the rapture did not occur yesterday, another viable candidate from the Republican field was carried away from consideration.

With Barbour, Huckabee, and Trump already standing on the sidelines, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is the latest to decline to square off with the remaining Republican candidates in an effort to wrestle the White House away from President Obama.

The Bench Jockeys thought that Daniels had a legitimate chance to secure the nomination as an 8:1 contender – the third highest ratio from our oddsmaking team.  Citing Read more »

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Playing Trump Too Soon?

Posted in The Quick Hook, US Politics on May 16th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Never one to shy away from the media, Donald Trump, has turned off the Klieg light on his potential run for the Republican nomination.  With his usual bluster, The Donald stated, “I will not be running for president as much as I’d like to,” but then opined, “I maintain the strong conviction that if I were to run, I would be able to win the primary and, ultimately, the general election.”  So if he wanted to run and he thought he would win:  a) why not run, and b) why end the speculation before the 2012 race is even off the ground?  He surely could have milked the political pronouncement to throw his toupee into the ring into a made-for-tv event like LeBron’s axis-altering decision to move to South Beach.

Although we only considered him a fringe player in terms of actual candidacy for the Republican nomination, we did fear Read more »

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Huckabee Passes on 2012

Posted in The Horseshoe, The Quick Hook, US Politics on May 14th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Mike Huckabee – a Bench Jockeys top five contender for the 2012 GOP nomination – has stated that his heart is not in a Presidential run, and for now, he is out.  The Former Arkansas Governor, Southern Baptist minister and Fox News host opened at 9:1 to win the Republican nomination.  This surprising turn of events shakes up an already convoluted field and allows some of the second tier candidates an opportunity to make a move.   As a result, fellow social conservative Michele Bachmann gets Read more »

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GOP Stop 1: South Carolina …

Posted in The Horseshoe, The Plus-Minus, US Politics on May 6th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

 May 6, 2011 –   So it wasn’t the Legion of Doom line from the 1996 Philadelphia Flyers (Lindros, LeClair and Renberg) but five of the GOP hopefuls did appear in Greenville, South Carolina to offer their respective campaigns’ spin to the foreign and domestic issues of the day.  I sat through this sound bite event – which was inexplicably termed a “debate” – for its entirety and I felt like I learned a bit more about Gary Johnson who looked uncomfortable in his own skin (and The Bench Jockeys have downgraded him accordingly) and underestimated the “everyman” appeal of a very well-spoken Herman Cain (who earned a boost in his odds).  Tim Pawlenty looked very presidential and at ease.  Although T-Paw was a bit scripted, he offered tight answers and knew when to admit he had made an error rather than executing the standard politician rope-a-dope.  Ron Paul, who was well-supported by the South Carolina audience, looked frail; I think that his window may have closed.  (The Bench Jockeys will be tweaking him downward as well.)   Fellow DSL alum Rick Santorum stood out in the quintet as overly moralistic, and even in this 86 octane mid-grade candidate field, the Rooster did not finish in the Top 3.

Pluses go to Pawlenty and Cain/ A Minus goes to Johnson/ No goals against & no goals scored for Paul and Santorum.

The next Republican gabfest will be Iowa on August 11th.

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Just Give it a Few Days…

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on May 3rd, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Although Ireland’s largest bookmaker, Paddy Power, has made Barack Obama a 2:5 favorite in winning re-election, The Bench Jockeys are not quite so sure.  The election is still 18 months away and anything can happen.  Obama will not face any competition from his fellow Democrats so he can hold onto his war chest until a worthy opponent is identified, whereas each of the GOP candidates will need to use his/her fundraising money early and often to gain separation and party traction.  History tells us that only four incumbent presidents have been denied a nomination to run by their own party:  Millard Fillmore, Chester A. Arthur, Andrew Johnson and Franklin Pierce.  Quick Pop Quiz:  What do three of these four men have in common?  Answer: Read more »

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Haley Barbour Passes on 2012 Bid

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on April 25th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

April 25 – Like Cosmo Kramer in “The Contest,” Mississippi Governor, Haley Barbour is out.  The Bench Jockeys considered Barbour a mid-level contender for the 2012 Republican nomination and as a result of today’s announcement, the current money lines must be assessed.  We detected that there was likely some blood in the water when the media began to scrutinize Barbour’s days as a lobbyist, but we did not expect him to fold this early.   

As for ripple impacts on the remaining 34 potential candidates, The Bench Jockeys are tweaking Gingrich, Huckabee and Daniels.  With Barbour out, Read more »

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Barbour’s Odds Take an Immediate Downgrade

Posted in The Horseshoe, The Quick Hook, US Politics on April 13th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

14 hours after establishing odds for the 2012 Republican nomination, The Bench Jockeys have their first modification.  Haley Barbour has been downgraded to 15:1 from his opening 10:1 odds.  AP’s recent analysis of Haley Barbour’s work during his years as a lobbyist Read more »

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The Bench Jockeys Set Odds for the 2012 Presidential Hopefuls

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on April 12th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

April 11, 2011  – In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, The Bench Jockeys have scoured the US news outlets, scrutinized birth certificates, examined any number of self-serving PR posts, and by God, done a little hard-nosed research all in the interest of being your one-source stop for the 2012 Presidential Election marathon which began last week with Barack Obama’s declaration of his billion dollar fundraising target.  Tonight, Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty tossed his hat into the ring.  

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Republican race against Barack Obama.  We have also included a few Independents and a Libertarian just to stay trendy, but we all know that the President will emerge from either the Republican or Democratic ranks.  As additional candidates step into the fray, we will keep you posted with updates and current odds.  When news happens that impacts a particular candidate’s odds of being selected by his/her party, we will tweet about it and post to this page.  Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the Repulican Party’s nomination for the 2012 Presidential Election.

Candidate Age Background Opening Odds Current Odds
Michele Bachmann  54 Current US Rep – MN 25:1 25:1
Haley Barbour 63 Former RNC Chair/Current Gov – MS 10:1 15:1
John Bolton  62 Former UN Amb/No Elected Offices 30:1 30:1
Scott Brown 51 Current US Senator – MA 80:1 80:1
Jeb Bush 58 Former Gov – FL 50:1 50:1
Herman Cain 65 KC Fed Reserve Chair   Businessman 25:1 25:1
Chris Christie  48 Current Gov – NJ 18:1 18:1
Mitch Daniels  62 Current Gov – IN 12:1 12:1
Jim DeMint  59 Current US Senator – SC 14:1 14:1
Newt Gingrich  67 Former Speaker of House 12:1 12:1
Rudy Giuliani  66 Former Mayor – NYC 200:1 200:1
Lindsey Graham  55 Current US Senator – SC 10:1 10:1
Mike Huckabee  55 Former Gov – AR 9:1 9:1
Jon Huntsman 51 Former Gov – UT / US Amb  40:1 40:1
Bobby Jindal  39 Current Gov -LA 30:1 30:1
Gary Johnson  58 Former Gov – NM 500:1 500:1
Fred Karger  61 Pol Consultant/No Elected Office a trillion :1 a trillion :1
Bob McDonnell  56 Current Gov – VA 15:1 15:1
Tom Miller 46 Flight Attendant/No Elected Office a zillion :1 a zillion :1
Sarah Palin 47 Former Gov – AK 25:1 25:1
George Pataki  65 Former Gov – NY 400:1 400:1
Rand Paul 48 Current US Senator – KY 150:1 150:1
Ron Paul 75 Current US Rep – TX 9:1 9:1
Tim Pawlenty  50 Current Gov – MN 4:1 4:1
Michael Pence 51 Current US Rep – IN 100:1 100:1
Rick Perry 61 Current Gov – TX 50:1 50:1
David Petraeus  58 US Army General 20:1 20:1
Condoleezza Rice   56 Former Secretary of State 50:1 50:1
Buddy Roemer  67 Former Gov – LA 5000:1 5000:1
Mitt Romney  64 Former Gov – MA 7:2 7:2
Marco Rubio  39 Current US Senator – FL 20:1 20:1
Rick Santorum  53 Former US Senator – PA 1000:1 1000:1
John Thune 50 Current US Senator – SD will not run  
Donald Trump  54 Businessman/No Elected Office 18:1 18:1
Allen West  49 Current US Rep – FL 100:1 100:1
         
         
Independents        
Mike Bloomberg  69 Current Mayor – NY 40:1** 40:1**
Charlie Crist  55 Current Gov – FL 60:1** 60:1**
         
Libertarian        
Wayne Allyn Root  49 Businessman  / No Elected Office 1000:1** 1000:1**

 **For the Independents and Libertarians, odds posted are the odds of winning the presidency. 

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

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