Huckabee Passes on 2012

Mike Huckabee – a Bench Jockeys top five contender for the 2012 GOP nomination – has stated that his heart is not in a Presidential run, and for now, he is out.  The Former Arkansas Governor, Southern Baptist minister and Fox News host opened at 9:1 to win the Republican nomination.  This surprising turn of events shakes up an already convoluted field and allows some of the second tier candidates an opportunity to make a move.   As a result, fellow social conservative Michele Bachmann gets  an up-tweak to 23:1 – but we really do not think she can compete with the main horses in the field; Sarah Palin’s odds remain unaffected by Huck’s announcement.  Herman Cain, on the other hand, could be the new spoiler.  We now have Cain at 20:1, just a few points behind Trump.

As for the front-runners, we think our odds on Mitt, Mitch and Newt are pretty close, but Tim Pawlenty edges up to a dead-heat with Romney in the aftermath of Huckabee’s statement.  During the May 5th South Carolina Debates, candidate Tim Pawlenty stated that even he was a Huckabee fan and we think many of Huck’s Army will shift to Pawlenty, at least until Daniels makes it official.  Romney would have been better off with Huckabee in the race since the support that Huckabee would have garnered now must go somewhere, but it is not likely to go to Mitt.  With Huckabee out, those “so-con” votes will only strengthen the camps of Romney’s remaining top tier opponents. 

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