Initial CPAC GOP Straw Poll Results

Posted in US Politics on February 28th, 2015 by Ian Paregol

February 28, 2015  - The black smoke has cleared in the Potomac Ballroom of the Gaylord National Convention Center in Oxon Hill, Maryland.  The straw poll of thousands of conservative zealots who attended CPAC this week, has yielded a worthy candidate to go forth and attempt to wrest control of the White House from the Dems.  There was much fire and brimstone cast upon ISIS, common core, Obama’s pending nuclear development deal with Iran, US immigration policy, unbridled government spending and of course, Hillary. However, unlike the selection of a Pope, the results of the CPAC straw poll will not serve to unite a Republican party which – for the most part – does have a common voice.   

I find it ironic that CPAC– a conference which has become the Right’s annual homage to Ronald Reagan and everything he stood for – does not embrace one of the central tenets that ol’ Number 40 championed:  the 11th Commandment – Thou shall not speak ill of any fellow Republican. 

Whether a Tea bagger, an establishment Republican, a Main Streeter, or a RINO, there is one thing that all Republicans seek…. Read more »

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The Bench Jockeys Offer Opening Odds for 2106 Nomination

Posted in Sport/Pol Crossover, US Politics on February 27th, 2015 by Ian Paregol

February 27, 2015 – The 2015 sports scene is off and running.  It began with a collective “What the Heck?” as Pete Carroll gift wrapped the Lombardi Trophy for the Pats with the most incomprehensible play call in Superbowl history.  Next, Novak and Serena  gave notice at the Aussie Open that favorites still rule the day in the ATP and WTA.  Last week, the NASCAR season fired-up its real season which began with Joey Logano’s win in Daytona.  This week, the MLB returns to Florida and Arizona as spring games begin.  And just as teams in the NBA and NHL are jockeying for seeding in their respective leagues, and college hoops teams make their final push to be included in the 2015 March Madness bracket, The Bench Jockeys political Hot Stove is heating up for a humdinger of a 2015 in anticipation of general election in 2016 that will chart the future of the United States into the next decade.

In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, the Bench Jockeys have released odds for the 2016 nomination.  We will keep this tracker up to date as entrants declare and drop out and as political fortunes rise and fall in the GOP.

This year we have the added pleasure of offering the odds (albeit a bookmaker’s dream) for those vying for the nomination on the Democrat ticket.  Hint:  Hillary Clinton is a presently at 1:7 which will only drift away from a “sure thing” if something surfaces from the investigations involving Benghazi or the foreign government money accepted by the Clinton Foundation. 

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Democrat and Republican races for the White House. 

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the 2016 nomination.

Democrats

Candidate

Age

Background

Opening Odds

Current Odds♤

Joseph Biden 72 VP US; Fmr Sen DE 35:1 35:1
Hillary Clinton 67 Fmr. US Sen NY; Fmr. US Sec of State 1:7 1:7
Jim Webb 69 Fmr US Sen VA 30:1 30:1
Martin O’Malley 52 Fmr Gov MD; Fmr. Mayor Baltimore 25:1 25:1
Bernie Sanders* 73 US Sen VT; Fmr Rep US House VT 35:1 35:1
Mark Warner 60 US Sen VA; Fmr Gov VA 50:1 50:1
Elizabeth Warren 65 US Sen MA 48:1 48:1

* Registered Ind. may run as a Dem.    

♤ Odds updated 3/7/15

Rand CPAC

Marco CPACPerry CPACSantorum CPAC


 

 

Republicans

Candidate

Age

Background

Opening Odds

Current Odds♢

John Bolton 66 Fmr US Ambassador UN 75:1 75:1
Jeb Bush 62 Fmr Gov FL 7:2 7:2
Ben Carson 63 No political offices held; neurosurgeon 22:1 30:1
Chris Christie 52 Gov NJ 12:1 12:1
Ted Cruz 44 US Sen TX 8:1 10:1
Carly Fiorina 60 No political offices held, Fmr CEO HP 50:1 50:1
Lindsey Graham 59 US Sen SC; Fmr US House Rep SC 45:1 45:1
Mike Huckabee 59 Fmr Gov AR 17:1 17:1
Bobby Jindal 43 Gov LA; Fmr US House Rep LA 50:1 50:1
John Kasich 62 Gov OH; Fmr US House Rep OH 70:1 70:1
Rand Paul 52 US Sen KY 6:1 6:1
Mike Pence 55 Gov IN, US House Rep IN 40:1 40:1
Rick Perry 64 Fmr Gov TX 18:1 18:1
Marco Rubio 43 US Sen FL; US  House Rep FL 10:1 12:1
Rick Santorum 56 Fmr US Sen PA; Fmr US House Rep PA 45:1 45:1
Donald Trump 68 No political offices held; CEO Trump 100:1 100:1
Scott Walker 47 Gov WI 9:1 9:1
         

 ♢ Odds updated 3/7/15

Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

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Shuffle at the Top

Posted in US Politics on November 20th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

November 20, 2011 – November continues to be a month for shakeups.  And we aren’t just talking about the insane BCS Rankings which will be released later today.  Although Romney appears to remain the number 1 seed with 10 months to go until the GOP Convention, the number 2 candidate has shifted.  The cagey Newt Gingrich – doing is best Lazarus impression after the mass exodus in June of his campaign teams in NH, SC and Iowa – has emerged as the chief rival to Mighty Mitt.

Unable to shake the sexual harassment allegations, Cain is slipping; unable to offer cogent debate on a national level, Perry is sliding; and unable to seem younger and a more plausible presidential option, Paul is plummeting.  Bachmann (who performed well in the recent South Carolina debate) let her campaign team get Read more »

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Daniels Opts Out of 2012 Run

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on May 22nd, 2011 by Ian Paregol

May 22 – Although the rapture did not occur yesterday, another viable candidate from the Republican field was carried away from consideration.

With Barbour, Huckabee, and Trump already standing on the sidelines, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is the latest to decline to square off with the remaining Republican candidates in an effort to wrestle the White House away from President Obama.

The Bench Jockeys thought that Daniels had a legitimate chance to secure the nomination as an 8:1 contender – the third highest ratio from our oddsmaking team.  Citing Read more »

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Playing Trump Too Soon?

Posted in The Quick Hook, US Politics on May 16th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Never one to shy away from the media, Donald Trump, has turned off the Klieg light on his potential run for the Republican nomination.  With his usual bluster, The Donald stated, “I will not be running for president as much as I’d like to,” but then opined, “I maintain the strong conviction that if I were to run, I would be able to win the primary and, ultimately, the general election.”  So if he wanted to run and he thought he would win:  a) why not run, and b) why end the speculation before the 2012 race is even off the ground?  He surely could have milked the political pronouncement to throw his toupee into the ring into a made-for-tv event like LeBron’s axis-altering decision to move to South Beach.

Although we only considered him a fringe player in terms of actual candidacy for the Republican nomination, we did fear Read more »

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Huckabee Passes on 2012

Posted in The Horseshoe, The Quick Hook, US Politics on May 14th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Mike Huckabee – a Bench Jockeys top five contender for the 2012 GOP nomination – has stated that his heart is not in a Presidential run, and for now, he is out.  The Former Arkansas Governor, Southern Baptist minister and Fox News host opened at 9:1 to win the Republican nomination.  This surprising turn of events shakes up an already convoluted field and allows some of the second tier candidates an opportunity to make a move.   As a result, fellow social conservative Michele Bachmann gets Read more »

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Just Give it a Few Days…

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on May 3rd, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Although Ireland’s largest bookmaker, Paddy Power, has made Barack Obama a 2:5 favorite in winning re-election, The Bench Jockeys are not quite so sure.  The election is still 18 months away and anything can happen.  Obama will not face any competition from his fellow Democrats so he can hold onto his war chest until a worthy opponent is identified, whereas each of the GOP candidates will need to use his/her fundraising money early and often to gain separation and party traction.  History tells us that only four incumbent presidents have been denied a nomination to run by their own party:  Millard Fillmore, Chester A. Arthur, Andrew Johnson and Franklin Pierce.  Quick Pop Quiz:  What do three of these four men have in common?  Answer: Read more »

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Haley Barbour Passes on 2012 Bid

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on April 25th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

April 25 – Like Cosmo Kramer in “The Contest,” Mississippi Governor, Haley Barbour is out.  The Bench Jockeys considered Barbour a mid-level contender for the 2012 Republican nomination and as a result of today’s announcement, the current money lines must be assessed.  We detected that there was likely some blood in the water when the media began to scrutinize Barbour’s days as a lobbyist, but we did not expect him to fold this early.   

As for ripple impacts on the remaining 34 potential candidates, The Bench Jockeys are tweaking Gingrich, Huckabee and Daniels.  With Barbour out, Read more »

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Gary Johnson Makes it Official

Posted in The Horseshoe, The Quick Hook, US Politics on April 21st, 2011 by Ian Paregol

April 21 – Former Governor of New Mexico, Gary Johnson, officially threw his hat into the ring today in New Hampshire but remains a Republican darkhorse.  Because The Bench Jockeys saw this one coming and determined that Johnson has barely a prayer of securing the nomination, Johnson’s opening odds – 500:1 – remain unchanged.  The skinny on Johnson is that as Governor, he rarely came across a piece of legislation he liked – setting national records for his utilization of the gubernatorial veto, he opposed the war in Iraq from the get-go, he favors putting the educational system entirely in the hands of parents & local authorities and he supports legalizing marijuana as a means to combat the drug-related violence.

Check to our contenders and pretenders Page at http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/

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The Bench Jockeys Set Odds for the 2012 Presidential Hopefuls

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on April 12th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

April 11, 2011  – In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, The Bench Jockeys have scoured the US news outlets, scrutinized birth certificates, examined any number of self-serving PR posts, and by God, done a little hard-nosed research all in the interest of being your one-source stop for the 2012 Presidential Election marathon which began last week with Barack Obama’s declaration of his billion dollar fundraising target.  Tonight, Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty tossed his hat into the ring.  

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Republican race against Barack Obama.  We have also included a few Independents and a Libertarian just to stay trendy, but we all know that the President will emerge from either the Republican or Democratic ranks.  As additional candidates step into the fray, we will keep you posted with updates and current odds.  When news happens that impacts a particular candidate’s odds of being selected by his/her party, we will tweet about it and post to this page.  Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the Repulican Party’s nomination for the 2012 Presidential Election.

Candidate Age Background Opening Odds Current Odds
Michele Bachmann  54 Current US Rep – MN 25:1 25:1
Haley Barbour 63 Former RNC Chair/Current Gov – MS 10:1 15:1
John Bolton  62 Former UN Amb/No Elected Offices 30:1 30:1
Scott Brown 51 Current US Senator – MA 80:1 80:1
Jeb Bush 58 Former Gov – FL 50:1 50:1
Herman Cain 65 KC Fed Reserve Chair   Businessman 25:1 25:1
Chris Christie  48 Current Gov – NJ 18:1 18:1
Mitch Daniels  62 Current Gov – IN 12:1 12:1
Jim DeMint  59 Current US Senator – SC 14:1 14:1
Newt Gingrich  67 Former Speaker of House 12:1 12:1
Rudy Giuliani  66 Former Mayor – NYC 200:1 200:1
Lindsey Graham  55 Current US Senator – SC 10:1 10:1
Mike Huckabee  55 Former Gov – AR 9:1 9:1
Jon Huntsman 51 Former Gov – UT / US Amb  40:1 40:1
Bobby Jindal  39 Current Gov -LA 30:1 30:1
Gary Johnson  58 Former Gov – NM 500:1 500:1
Fred Karger  61 Pol Consultant/No Elected Office a trillion :1 a trillion :1
Bob McDonnell  56 Current Gov – VA 15:1 15:1
Tom Miller 46 Flight Attendant/No Elected Office a zillion :1 a zillion :1
Sarah Palin 47 Former Gov – AK 25:1 25:1
George Pataki  65 Former Gov – NY 400:1 400:1
Rand Paul 48 Current US Senator – KY 150:1 150:1
Ron Paul 75 Current US Rep – TX 9:1 9:1
Tim Pawlenty  50 Current Gov – MN 4:1 4:1
Michael Pence 51 Current US Rep – IN 100:1 100:1
Rick Perry 61 Current Gov – TX 50:1 50:1
David Petraeus  58 US Army General 20:1 20:1
Condoleezza Rice   56 Former Secretary of State 50:1 50:1
Buddy Roemer  67 Former Gov – LA 5000:1 5000:1
Mitt Romney  64 Former Gov – MA 7:2 7:2
Marco Rubio  39 Current US Senator – FL 20:1 20:1
Rick Santorum  53 Former US Senator – PA 1000:1 1000:1
John Thune 50 Current US Senator – SD will not run  
Donald Trump  54 Businessman/No Elected Office 18:1 18:1
Allen West  49 Current US Rep – FL 100:1 100:1
         
         
Independents        
Mike Bloomberg  69 Current Mayor – NY 40:1** 40:1**
Charlie Crist  55 Current Gov – FL 60:1** 60:1**
         
Libertarian        
Wayne Allyn Root  49 Businessman  / No Elected Office 1000:1** 1000:1**

 **For the Independents and Libertarians, odds posted are the odds of winning the presidency. 

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

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