Ranking the Top 10

Posted in US Politics on August 6th, 2015 by Ian Paregol

Rubio CPACAugust 6, 2015 – In the immortal words of Keith Jackson, “Whoa Nellie!”  Two hours flew by as the Top 10 Republican candidates (more like 9 plus 1 pretender) danced around a series of pointed questions about their respective positions.  As projected, there was a bit of carnage in the nightcap in Cleveland, but what I did not understand is why would Fox purposely phrase so many questions to make the candidates unlikeable.  They are still cleaning up blood from the wounds inflicted upon Rand Paul this evening courtesy of separate attacks from Trump and Christie.

Fox News Channel moderators Megyn Kelly, Chris Wallace and Bret Baier provided an awkward, chatty opening unfitting for a national discussion.  However, once the rhetoric began to fly, it was clear that Fox was targeting Trump’s candidacy and using their inquiries to expose his weaknesses as a Republican candidate.  That, I can understand.  But as a Fox product, why not have the moderators ask a few questions over the course of the evening that might allow the GOP to gain some support from the undecideds.  In my opinion, the phrasing of the questions by the Fox commentators did not bolster the Republican messaging, but instead made each of them appear weaker.

Right off the bat, Trump’s reluctance to waive the possibility of a 3rd party run set the tone for the debate.  With the independent elephant in the room immediately in play, I would have liked to have seen follow-up questions directed to some of the other candidates about “party versus person” in an effort to further isolate Trump since that was the clearly Fox’s intention. Always playing a hunch, it is interesting to note that during the debate, The Donald was overtly supportive of Jeb Bush – which might be a wise hedge bet.

Not all of the candidates were asked the same questions, but each got a crack at a domestic issue and a foreign policy matter.  Using a +2 to -2 rating for each response given, here is how we scored the candidates.

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Q6 Q7 Close Total
Bush 1 1 -1 1 1 1 1 0 5
Carson -1 0 -2 0 0 0 0 -3
Christie 1 2 2 1 0 6
Cruz 1 1 2 2 1 0 7
Huckabee 1 2 0 1 2 1 7
Kasich 0 0 0 1 0 -1 0
Paul 0 0 1 0 0 1
Rubio 1 2 1 2 1 1 1 9
Trump -1 0 -1 -2 0 1 1 -2
Walker 0 1 0 1 1 0 1 1 5

All of the candidates were confronted with similar opening questions which addressed their perceived weaknesses.  Notably, the candidates did not all receive an equal number of questions: Rand Paul and Chris Christie were severely shortchanged.  Huckabee, Cruz and Christie made the most of their opportunities, while the good doctor Carson looked uneasy and did not shine among the top tier candidates.

We had Marco Rubio as the winner for the evening session, but evangelicals, Huckabee and Cruz were close behind and each of the 2nd place finishers were offered one fewer question.  Trump was surprisingly well-behaved but offered little content.  Jeb Bush did not seem excited about his messaging but he plodded along.  Kasich benefitted from the Ohio home cooking, but did not score many points with the Bench Jockeys.

We are now just over 15 months away from election night 2016.  Much can happen between now and the Iowa Caucus (2/1/16), New Hampshire Primary (2/9/16) and Super Tuesday (3/1/16).  We aim to stay on top of the 2016 election, and accordingly, our odds have been adjusted. Click here http://thebenchjockeys.com/updated-odds-for-2016-presidential-nominations/ for our updates which consider our perceptions from both the early show and the main event.

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Pre-game Analysis for August 6th GOP Debate

Posted in US Politics on August 3rd, 2015 by Ian Paregol

DSC_0789August 3, 2015 – This Thursday (August 6th) I suggest those of you who enjoy watching a nice, slow train wreck tune into Fox News Channel at 9pm in the east.  Cleveland will host what will be the most discussed (and possibly most disgusting) example of individual ego, hyperbole and GOP party cannibalism ever seen as the 10 highest polling 2016 Republican presidential candidates converge on one stage for the political equivalent of Opening Day.  Sure, just like we knew that some of the ball clubs this past April had zero chance of any post-season dreams (sorry, Rockies and Phillies fans), each of these 10 men (sorry, Carly Fiorina fans) somehow think they have a iron-clad path to the nomination.

Blinded by personal ambition while forsaking the end-game goal of the Grand Old Party, what most of the aspirants fail to recognize is that it will not be the populace who decides who will be the nominee, it will be the party.  Amos Tuck will rise from the dead before the GOP allows The Donald the honor of facing off against Hillary, Bernie or Uncle Joe.  Assuming RNC chair, Reince Priebus has learned anything from 2008 and 2012, the Republican Party will not let the intra-party backbiting continue, the field will be purposefully winnowed and the leadership will need to broker a deal with Trump so he does not give the GOP the Ross Perot 1992 skidoo.

And for those of you who love the underdog, the seven remaining Division 1-FCS candidates will also have their opportunity to shine in a lesser-viewed cage match undercard earlier on Thursday at 5PM.  This second tier candidate debate essentially becomes the de facto loser bracket in a double elimination contest.  Notably, each of the “less-than-magnificent 7″ enter this bracket saddled with one loss.  However, miracles do happen… like when 33-27 Fresno State beat Georgia in 2008 to win the College World Series or when Buster Douglas, a 42-1 long shot, KOed Iron Mike in 1990.  It happens, but PAC contributions will begin to wane without a tremendous showing on Thursday.

The Bench Jockeys will be lapping up both of the debates, hoping that there will be an automatic microphone kill switch utilized by the moderators when speaking time expires and updating our odds on Friday based upon what we see.  Click here http://thebenchjockeys.com/updated-odds-for-2016-presidential-nominations/ to see where things stand prior to Thursday’s scuffle.

 

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Playing Trump Too Soon?

Posted in The Quick Hook, US Politics on May 16th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Never one to shy away from the media, Donald Trump, has turned off the Klieg light on his potential run for the Republican nomination.  With his usual bluster, The Donald stated, “I will not be running for president as much as I’d like to,” but then opined, “I maintain the strong conviction that if I were to run, I would be able to win the primary and, ultimately, the general election.”  So if he wanted to run and he thought he would win:  a) why not run, and b) why end the speculation before the 2012 race is even off the ground?  He surely could have milked the political pronouncement to throw his toupee into the ring into a made-for-tv event like LeBron’s axis-altering decision to move to South Beach.

Although we only considered him a fringe player in terms of actual candidacy for the Republican nomination, we did fear Read more »

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