Hillary Opens Dem Polls on Top

Posted in US Politics on March 1st, 2015 by Ian Paregol

Hillary IowaMarch 1, 2015 – Quinnipiac University conducted a telephone survey in Iowa during the week of February 16th seeking opinions about the projected field of Democratic candidates for 2016.  The survey involved 619 likely Democratic Caucus participants. The predictable results were released on February 26th.

Democratic Party Iowans overwhelmingly backed Hillary Clinton (61%), with Elizabeth Warren earning runner-up honors at 19%.  Biden placed third with 7%, Sanders was fourth at 5% and Jim Webb finished in fifth at 2%.  Hillary maintains a stronghold on her path to the Democratic Party’s nomination and the odds that The Bench Jockeys have offered (1:7) seem in line with these results.  [For those of you who read The Bench Jockeys and do not gamble, a 1:7 line means that you would have to bet $7 to win just $1.]

Right now, Hillary is just that sure of a lock. What was remarkable is that not one of the 619 Iowans who participated, voted for former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley.  Not one.  With only six potential candidates, Quinnipiac extended its inquiry to include a question about who the voters would support if their first choice opted not to run.  Even with Hillary out of the picture, O’Malley only secured 3% of the votes.  18 of 619 votes.  Biden (30%) and Warren (23%) were the leading pretenders.  Look for Marty to take a page out of the Bill Clinton playbook and have his Celtic rock band – O’Malley’s March – booked on a few late night talk shows this summer if he cannot gain traction in this incomplete field.

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The Bench Jockeys Offer Opening Odds for 2106 Nomination

Posted in Sport/Pol Crossover, US Politics on February 27th, 2015 by Ian Paregol

February 27, 2015 – The 2015 sports scene is off and running.  It began with a collective “What the Heck?” as Pete Carroll gift wrapped the Lombardi Trophy for the Pats with the most incomprehensible play call in Superbowl history.  Next, Novak and Serena  gave notice at the Aussie Open that favorites still rule the day in the ATP and WTA.  Last week, the NASCAR season fired-up its real season which began with Joey Logano’s win in Daytona.  This week, the MLB returns to Florida and Arizona as spring games begin.  And just as teams in the NBA and NHL are jockeying for seeding in their respective leagues, and college hoops teams make their final push to be included in the 2015 March Madness bracket, The Bench Jockeys political Hot Stove is heating up for a humdinger of a 2015 in anticipation of general election in 2016 that will chart the future of the United States into the next decade.

In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, the Bench Jockeys have released odds for the 2016 nomination.  We will keep this tracker up to date as entrants declare and drop out and as political fortunes rise and fall in the GOP.

This year we have the added pleasure of offering the odds (albeit a bookmaker’s dream) for those vying for the nomination on the Democrat ticket.  Hint:  Hillary Clinton is a presently at 1:7 which will only drift away from a “sure thing” if something surfaces from the investigations involving Benghazi or the foreign government money accepted by the Clinton Foundation. 

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Democrat and Republican races for the White House. 

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the 2016 nomination.

Democrats

Candidate

Age

Background

Opening Odds

Current Odds♤

Joseph Biden 72 VP US; Fmr Sen DE 35:1 35:1
Hillary Clinton 67 Fmr. US Sen NY; Fmr. US Sec of State 1:7 1:7
Jim Webb 69 Fmr US Sen VA 30:1 30:1
Martin O’Malley 52 Fmr Gov MD; Fmr. Mayor Baltimore 25:1 25:1
Bernie Sanders* 73 US Sen VT; Fmr Rep US House VT 35:1 35:1
Mark Warner 60 US Sen VA; Fmr Gov VA 50:1 50:1
Elizabeth Warren 65 US Sen MA 48:1 48:1

* Registered Ind. may run as a Dem.    

♤ Odds updated 3/7/15

Rand CPAC

Marco CPACPerry CPACSantorum CPAC


 

 

Republicans

Candidate

Age

Background

Opening Odds

Current Odds♢

John Bolton 66 Fmr US Ambassador UN 75:1 75:1
Jeb Bush 62 Fmr Gov FL 7:2 7:2
Ben Carson 63 No political offices held; neurosurgeon 22:1 30:1
Chris Christie 52 Gov NJ 12:1 12:1
Ted Cruz 44 US Sen TX 8:1 10:1
Carly Fiorina 60 No political offices held, Fmr CEO HP 50:1 50:1
Lindsey Graham 59 US Sen SC; Fmr US House Rep SC 45:1 45:1
Mike Huckabee 59 Fmr Gov AR 17:1 17:1
Bobby Jindal 43 Gov LA; Fmr US House Rep LA 50:1 50:1
John Kasich 62 Gov OH; Fmr US House Rep OH 70:1 70:1
Rand Paul 52 US Sen KY 6:1 6:1
Mike Pence 55 Gov IN, US House Rep IN 40:1 40:1
Rick Perry 64 Fmr Gov TX 18:1 18:1
Marco Rubio 43 US Sen FL; US  House Rep FL 10:1 12:1
Rick Santorum 56 Fmr US Sen PA; Fmr US House Rep PA 45:1 45:1
Donald Trump 68 No political offices held; CEO Trump 100:1 100:1
Scott Walker 47 Gov WI 9:1 9:1
         

 ♢ Odds updated 3/7/15

Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

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Hybrid Theory

Posted in Sport/Pol Crossover, US Politics on May 5th, 2011 by Craig Zuckerman

After returning from five days and nine rounds of golf in Myrtle Beach with my new favorite golf club – a hybrid – it got me to thinking how there’s more and more combo platters these days.  Every day we come across two ideas/products/life forms that have somehow been combined into one presumably preferable concept.  For example, words (bigamy, from the Latin meaning: twice and the Greek meaning: wedlock), convertible bonds (what’s better than that), dogs (I prefer the Dorkie, a Dachshund/Yorkie hybrid), mermaids (obvious upside), plants (peppermint is actually a hybrid between spearmint and water mint), fruit (grapefruit is a hybrid between a pomelo and the Jamaican sweet orange), sports (Frisbee golf & Horseball [a combination between polo and basketball]) and of course, politicians.

When President Obama extended the Bush tax cuts, his donkey’s snout became an elephant’s trunk.  When President Bush enacted TARP, his elephant ears shrunk to the size of a donkey’s. Maybe this country would be better off if  Read more »

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