The Madness Does Not Disappoint

Posted in College Sports on March 21st, 2015 by Ian Paregol

bracket-torn[1] March 21, 2015 – The most exciting 36 hours in college sports ended with a bang as the first round of the NCAA men’s basketball tournament concluded late last night with the 11th seed, Dayton knocking out Providence in a final coup d’ grace bracket buster.  The flurry of upsets that began on Thursday afternoon with with 3 one-point victories by UAB, Georgia State and UCLA served notice yet again to both fans and bettors that on any given day the prohibitive favorites can fall to an ambitious buzzsaw and dreams of playing on a Sweet 16 weekend can end early.  Hope you enjoyed your stay, ISU, VCU and SMU; please pick up the play-at-home game on your way out of the arena.

On Friday, higher seeds prevailed in 15 of the 16 matchups but even in a tournament where only 5 lower seeds emerged victorious in the 32 first round games, there is only 1 entry out the 11.57 million entries on ESPN’s Tournament Challenge that picked all 32 contests correctly.  1!  There are 38 entries that had 31 of the 32 teams picked correctly;  that’s .000328% of all ESPN’s brackets.   So when Iowa State and Baylor fell before you left the office on Thursday and you tore your office pool bracket sheet to shreds, feel some solace that you were not alone.  In fact, you might want to pull that baby out of the trashcan and tape that it back together.  As long as you didn’t have the Cyclones or Bears advancing too far, you may be still in line for a payday, because on the whole, favorites did much better than they have in recent years.  The chalk still talks going into the weekend games.

And speaking of a payout, I will leave you with this report from Vegas… Kentucky was 1:500 to beat Hampton and some schlub bet $600 on Kentucky.  The spoils of his wager… $1.20.

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The Bench Jockeys Offer Opening Odds for 2106 Nomination

Posted in Sport/Pol Crossover, US Politics on February 27th, 2015 by Ian Paregol

February 27, 2015 – The 2015 sports scene is off and running.  It began with a collective “What the Heck?” as Pete Carroll gift wrapped the Lombardi Trophy for the Pats with the most incomprehensible play call in Superbowl history.  Next, Novak and Serena  gave notice at the Aussie Open that favorites still rule the day in the ATP and WTA.  Last week, the NASCAR season fired-up its real season which began with Joey Logano’s win in Daytona.  This week, the MLB returns to Florida and Arizona as spring games begin.  And just as teams in the NBA and NHL are jockeying for seeding in their respective leagues, and college hoops teams make their final push to be included in the 2015 March Madness bracket, The Bench Jockeys political Hot Stove is heating up for a humdinger of a 2015 in anticipation of general election in 2016 that will chart the future of the United States into the next decade.

In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, the Bench Jockeys have released odds for the 2016 nomination.  We will keep this tracker up to date as entrants declare and drop out and as political fortunes rise and fall in the GOP.

This year we have the added pleasure of offering the odds (albeit a bookmaker’s dream) for those vying for the nomination on the Democrat ticket.  Hint:  Hillary Clinton is a presently at 1:7 which will only drift away from a “sure thing” if something surfaces from the investigations involving Benghazi or the foreign government money accepted by the Clinton Foundation. 

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Democrat and Republican races for the White House. 

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the 2016 nomination.

Democrats

Candidate

Age

Background

Opening Odds

Current Odds♤

Joseph Biden 72 VP US; Fmr Sen DE 35:1 35:1
Hillary Clinton 67 Fmr. US Sen NY; Fmr. US Sec of State 1:7 1:7
Jim Webb 69 Fmr US Sen VA 30:1 30:1
Martin O’Malley 52 Fmr Gov MD; Fmr. Mayor Baltimore 25:1 25:1
Bernie Sanders* 73 US Sen VT; Fmr Rep US House VT 35:1 35:1
Mark Warner 60 US Sen VA; Fmr Gov VA 50:1 50:1
Elizabeth Warren 65 US Sen MA 48:1 48:1

* Registered Ind. may run as a Dem.    

♤ Odds updated 3/7/15

Rand CPAC

Marco CPACPerry CPACSantorum CPAC


 

 

Republicans

Candidate

Age

Background

Opening Odds

Current Odds♢

John Bolton 66 Fmr US Ambassador UN 75:1 75:1
Jeb Bush 62 Fmr Gov FL 7:2 7:2
Ben Carson 63 No political offices held; neurosurgeon 22:1 30:1
Chris Christie 52 Gov NJ 12:1 12:1
Ted Cruz 44 US Sen TX 8:1 10:1
Carly Fiorina 60 No political offices held, Fmr CEO HP 50:1 50:1
Lindsey Graham 59 US Sen SC; Fmr US House Rep SC 45:1 45:1
Mike Huckabee 59 Fmr Gov AR 17:1 17:1
Bobby Jindal 43 Gov LA; Fmr US House Rep LA 50:1 50:1
John Kasich 62 Gov OH; Fmr US House Rep OH 70:1 70:1
Rand Paul 52 US Sen KY 6:1 6:1
Mike Pence 55 Gov IN, US House Rep IN 40:1 40:1
Rick Perry 64 Fmr Gov TX 18:1 18:1
Marco Rubio 43 US Sen FL; US  House Rep FL 10:1 12:1
Rick Santorum 56 Fmr US Sen PA; Fmr US House Rep PA 45:1 45:1
Donald Trump 68 No political offices held; CEO Trump 100:1 100:1
Scott Walker 47 Gov WI 9:1 9:1
         

 ♢ Odds updated 3/7/15

Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

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Shuffle at the Top

Posted in US Politics on November 20th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

November 20, 2011 – November continues to be a month for shakeups.  And we aren’t just talking about the insane BCS Rankings which will be released later today.  Although Romney appears to remain the number 1 seed with 10 months to go until the GOP Convention, the number 2 candidate has shifted.  The cagey Newt Gingrich – doing is best Lazarus impression after the mass exodus in June of his campaign teams in NH, SC and Iowa – has emerged as the chief rival to Mighty Mitt.

Unable to shake the sexual harassment allegations, Cain is slipping; unable to offer cogent debate on a national level, Perry is sliding; and unable to seem younger and a more plausible presidential option, Paul is plummeting.  Bachmann (who performed well in the recent South Carolina debate) let her campaign team get Read more »

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2012 GOP Nomination Odds 3.0

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on October 5th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

October 4, 2011 – It’s been another 2 months and time is running out on the wallflowers waiting for an invitation to join the other Republican hopefuls who are looking to be crowned Prom King (or Queen) in Tampa.  With five states holding primaries in January (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and now Florida), it would appear that everyone who is interested in pursuing the GOP Nomination for the 2012 election has announced his or her candidacy (or better announce soon). 

Although The Bench Jockeys would have enjoyed seeing what Chris Christie brought to the table or listening to Sarah Palin wrangle with Michele Bachmann (meow) during the next round of debates, it appears that we will have to settle for one of these 12 declared candidates.  In version 3.0 of The Bench Jockeys “Odds to Win the GOP Nomination” we have grouped the dirty dozen into quartets.  Unless something absolutely stunning happens, those in the 2nd Tier (and the bottom half of the 1st Tier) have some serious work to do in order to get into contention into what is essentially a two horse race.

Tier 1

Candidate Background Open Current
Mitt Romney Former Gov – MA 7:2 3:2
Rick Perry Current Gov – TX 50:1 8:1
Ron Paul Current US Rep – TX 9:1 15:1
Herman Cain Former Fed Reserve 25:1 24:1

Tier 2

Candidate Background Open Current
Michele Bachmann Current US Rep – MN 25:1 30:1
Newt Gingrich Former Spkr of House 12:1 37:1
Jon Huntsman Former Gov – UT 40:1 40:1
Rick Santorum Former US Sen – PA 1000:1 100:1

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. Three of them can’t even get invited to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

Candidate Background Open Current
Gary Johnson Former Gov – NM 500:1 1000:1
Thad McCotter Current US Rep – MI none 2500:1
Buddy Roemer Former Gov – LA 5000:1 5000:1
Fred Karger Political Consultant a trillion:1 a bazillion:1

We are also of the strong opinion – as we stated in version 2.0 – that Marco Rubio is the natural VP selection.  However, Herman Cain’s straw poll victory in Florida clouds that picture a bit.  That being said, we bet that Florida would have selected Rubio in a mano-a-mano match-up between Marco and Herman.

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Powers Shift in Iowa; Gophers Make News in Hawkeye State

Posted in The Quick Hook, US Politics on August 14th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Although we need to get back to blogging about some sports here at The Bench Jockeys, baseball has not started its pennant run, the NFL is still in pre-season mode and tennis’ US Open is not for two weeks.  What has heated up, however, is the race for GOP Presidential Nomination.  The first measuring stick for the candidates, the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, concluded voting last nite.  Michele Bachmann snakes a win in the poll, with Ron Paul finishing second and T-Paw taking show.  But just like kissing your sister, 3rd place is not what Pawlenty was setting his sights on.   Apparently with Tim Pawlenty’s coffers beginning to run dry and his loss to fellow Minnesotian Bachmann, coupled with the entry of Rick Perry into the fray, Tim is pulling up stakes and calling it a campaign.  As a result of this stunner, we have adjusted our top two tiers.  Paul’s second place finish in Iowa, does not move his dial, but Bachmann gets a big uptick and Perry becomes the new #2 to Romney.  For those of you asking, “Where is Mitt?” Ronmey did not compete.

Tier 1

Candidate Background Status Open Current
Mitt Romney Former Gov – MA A 7:2 3:1
Rick Perry Current Gov – TX A 50:1 7:1
Michele Bachmann Current US Rep – MN  A 25:1 14:1
Ron Paul Current US Rep – TX  A 9:1 15:1

Tier 2

Candidate Background Status Open Current
Jim DeMint Current US Sen – SC 14:1 25:1
Herman Cain Former Fed Reserve A 25:1 25:1
Chris Christie Current Gov – NJ 18:1 25:1
Marco Rubio Current US Sen – FL 20:1 25:1
Bobby Jindal Current Gov – LA 30:1 30:1
Sarah Palin Former Gov – AK 25:1 35:1
Jon Huntsman Former Gov – UT A 40:1 35:1

To view Tiers 3 and 4 click here: http://thebenchjockeys.com/2012-gop-nomination-odds-2-0/

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2012 GOP Presidential Candidates Odds 2.0

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on August 9th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

The GOP hopefuls will be back at it again in Iowa on August 11th.   As the candidates size up one another under the watchful eye of FOX News, the Bench Jockeys thought it was time to separate the contenders from the pretenders and develop a tiered chart for easy review.  On this chart, we have maintained our original opening odds from April 12, 2011 along with each candidate’s current odds to win the nomination (as we see it).  A separate designation (A) has been added for those candidate who have officially entered the fracas.

In this iteration of our odds-making, we have winnowed the field and have scratched Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels to reflect their current intentions to remain on the sidelines.  However, if the citizenry truly begins to seek to limit Obama to one term, Read more »

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Daniels Opts Out of 2012 Run

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on May 22nd, 2011 by Ian Paregol

May 22 – Although the rapture did not occur yesterday, another viable candidate from the Republican field was carried away from consideration.

With Barbour, Huckabee, and Trump already standing on the sidelines, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is the latest to decline to square off with the remaining Republican candidates in an effort to wrestle the White House away from President Obama.

The Bench Jockeys thought that Daniels had a legitimate chance to secure the nomination as an 8:1 contender – the third highest ratio from our oddsmaking team.  Citing Read more »

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Playing Trump Too Soon?

Posted in The Quick Hook, US Politics on May 16th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Never one to shy away from the media, Donald Trump, has turned off the Klieg light on his potential run for the Republican nomination.  With his usual bluster, The Donald stated, “I will not be running for president as much as I’d like to,” but then opined, “I maintain the strong conviction that if I were to run, I would be able to win the primary and, ultimately, the general election.”  So if he wanted to run and he thought he would win:  a) why not run, and b) why end the speculation before the 2012 race is even off the ground?  He surely could have milked the political pronouncement to throw his toupee into the ring into a made-for-tv event like LeBron’s axis-altering decision to move to South Beach.

Although we only considered him a fringe player in terms of actual candidacy for the Republican nomination, we did fear Read more »

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Huckabee Passes on 2012

Posted in The Horseshoe, The Quick Hook, US Politics on May 14th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Mike Huckabee – a Bench Jockeys top five contender for the 2012 GOP nomination – has stated that his heart is not in a Presidential run, and for now, he is out.  The Former Arkansas Governor, Southern Baptist minister and Fox News host opened at 9:1 to win the Republican nomination.  This surprising turn of events shakes up an already convoluted field and allows some of the second tier candidates an opportunity to make a move.   As a result, fellow social conservative Michele Bachmann gets Read more »

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20 Horse Field w/ Post Positions for Kentucky Derby

Posted in Professional Sports, The Quick Hook on May 5th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

The field for this Saturday’s Run for the Roses – the 137th Kentucky Derby – with post position, horse’s name and Read more »

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Just Give it a Few Days…

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on May 3rd, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Although Ireland’s largest bookmaker, Paddy Power, has made Barack Obama a 2:5 favorite in winning re-election, The Bench Jockeys are not quite so sure.  The election is still 18 months away and anything can happen.  Obama will not face any competition from his fellow Democrats so he can hold onto his war chest until a worthy opponent is identified, whereas each of the GOP candidates will need to use his/her fundraising money early and often to gain separation and party traction.  History tells us that only four incumbent presidents have been denied a nomination to run by their own party:  Millard Fillmore, Chester A. Arthur, Andrew Johnson and Franklin Pierce.  Quick Pop Quiz:  What do three of these four men have in common?  Answer: Read more »

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The Bench Jockeys Set Odds for the 2012 Presidential Hopefuls

Posted in The Horseshoe, US Politics on April 12th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

April 11, 2011  – In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, The Bench Jockeys have scoured the US news outlets, scrutinized birth certificates, examined any number of self-serving PR posts, and by God, done a little hard-nosed research all in the interest of being your one-source stop for the 2012 Presidential Election marathon which began last week with Barack Obama’s declaration of his billion dollar fundraising target.  Tonight, Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty tossed his hat into the ring.  

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Republican race against Barack Obama.  We have also included a few Independents and a Libertarian just to stay trendy, but we all know that the President will emerge from either the Republican or Democratic ranks.  As additional candidates step into the fray, we will keep you posted with updates and current odds.  When news happens that impacts a particular candidate’s odds of being selected by his/her party, we will tweet about it and post to this page.  Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the Repulican Party’s nomination for the 2012 Presidential Election.

Candidate Age Background Opening Odds Current Odds
Michele Bachmann  54 Current US Rep – MN 25:1 25:1
Haley Barbour 63 Former RNC Chair/Current Gov – MS 10:1 15:1
John Bolton  62 Former UN Amb/No Elected Offices 30:1 30:1
Scott Brown 51 Current US Senator – MA 80:1 80:1
Jeb Bush 58 Former Gov – FL 50:1 50:1
Herman Cain 65 KC Fed Reserve Chair   Businessman 25:1 25:1
Chris Christie  48 Current Gov – NJ 18:1 18:1
Mitch Daniels  62 Current Gov – IN 12:1 12:1
Jim DeMint  59 Current US Senator – SC 14:1 14:1
Newt Gingrich  67 Former Speaker of House 12:1 12:1
Rudy Giuliani  66 Former Mayor – NYC 200:1 200:1
Lindsey Graham  55 Current US Senator – SC 10:1 10:1
Mike Huckabee  55 Former Gov – AR 9:1 9:1
Jon Huntsman 51 Former Gov – UT / US Amb  40:1 40:1
Bobby Jindal  39 Current Gov -LA 30:1 30:1
Gary Johnson  58 Former Gov – NM 500:1 500:1
Fred Karger  61 Pol Consultant/No Elected Office a trillion :1 a trillion :1
Bob McDonnell  56 Current Gov – VA 15:1 15:1
Tom Miller 46 Flight Attendant/No Elected Office a zillion :1 a zillion :1
Sarah Palin 47 Former Gov – AK 25:1 25:1
George Pataki  65 Former Gov – NY 400:1 400:1
Rand Paul 48 Current US Senator – KY 150:1 150:1
Ron Paul 75 Current US Rep – TX 9:1 9:1
Tim Pawlenty  50 Current Gov – MN 4:1 4:1
Michael Pence 51 Current US Rep – IN 100:1 100:1
Rick Perry 61 Current Gov – TX 50:1 50:1
David Petraeus  58 US Army General 20:1 20:1
Condoleezza Rice   56 Former Secretary of State 50:1 50:1
Buddy Roemer  67 Former Gov – LA 5000:1 5000:1
Mitt Romney  64 Former Gov – MA 7:2 7:2
Marco Rubio  39 Current US Senator – FL 20:1 20:1
Rick Santorum  53 Former US Senator – PA 1000:1 1000:1
John Thune 50 Current US Senator – SD will not run  
Donald Trump  54 Businessman/No Elected Office 18:1 18:1
Allen West  49 Current US Rep – FL 100:1 100:1
         
         
Independents        
Mike Bloomberg  69 Current Mayor – NY 40:1** 40:1**
Charlie Crist  55 Current Gov – FL 60:1** 60:1**
         
Libertarian        
Wayne Allyn Root  49 Businessman  / No Elected Office 1000:1** 1000:1**

 **For the Independents and Libertarians, odds posted are the odds of winning the presidency. 

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

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