2012 GOP Nomination Odds 3.0
October 4, 2011 – It’s been another 2 months and time is running out on the wallflowers waiting for an invitation to join the other Republican hopefuls who are looking to be crowned Prom King (or Queen) in Tampa. With five states holding primaries in January (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and now Florida), it would appear that everyone who is interested in pursuing the GOP Nomination for the 2012 election has announced his or her candidacy (or better announce soon).
Although The Bench Jockeys would have enjoyed seeing what Chris Christie brought to the table or listening to Sarah Palin wrangle with Michele Bachmann (meow) during the next round of debates, it appears that we will have to settle for one of these 12 declared candidates. In version 3.0 of The Bench Jockeys “Odds to Win the GOP Nomination” we have grouped the dirty dozen into quartets. Unless something absolutely stunning happens, those in the 2nd Tier (and the bottom half of the 1st Tier) have some serious work to do in order to get into contention into what is essentially a two horse race.
Tier 1
| Candidate | Background | Open | Current |
| Mitt Romney | Former Gov – MA | 7:2 | 3:2 |
| Rick Perry | Current Gov – TX | 50:1 | 8:1 |
| Ron Paul | Current US Rep – TX | 9:1 | 15:1 |
| Herman Cain | Former Fed Reserve | 25:1 | 24:1 |
Tier 2
| Candidate | Background | Open | Current |
| Michele Bachmann | Current US Rep – MN | 25:1 | 30:1 |
| Newt Gingrich | Former Spkr of House | 12:1 | 37:1 |
| Jon Huntsman | Former Gov – UT | 40:1 | 40:1 |
| Rick Santorum | Former US Sen – PA | 1000:1 | 100:1 |
Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. Three of them can’t even get invited to the debate circuit. Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.
| Candidate | Background | Open | Current |
| Gary Johnson | Former Gov – NM | 500:1 | 1000:1 |
| Thad McCotter | Current US Rep – MI | none | 2500:1 |
| Buddy Roemer | Former Gov – LA | 5000:1 | 5000:1 |
| Fred Karger | Political Consultant | a trillion:1 | a bazillion:1 |
We are also of the strong opinion – as we stated in version 2.0 – that Marco Rubio is the natural VP selection. However, Herman Cain’s straw poll victory in Florida clouds that picture a bit. That being said, we bet that Florida would have selected Rubio in a mano-a-mano match-up between Marco and Herman.
Tags: 2012, election, GOP, odds, politics, romney