2012 Facts

Well, what have we learned in the last 24 hours:  Tigers can lay eggs; Caroline Wozniacki is still a hot property; and Ron Paul is not dead yet.  Let’s start with LSU, shall we?  The LSU Tigers are still trying to score a point in New Orleans.  The beating that ’Bama put on the LSU in the BCS National Championship Game was epic.  LSU managed just five first downs and 92 total yards on a night that was dominated by Alabama’s defense.  But that’s not the whole story.  LSU’s 53 yards of passing was offset by four sacks and resulting in a net passing game of 27 yards and total offense production of  66 yards.  Ouch!  The only folks who would deem that mess the ‘Game of the Century’ live in Tuscaloosa.

Issue 2.  Despite never having won a Grand Slam event, Caroline Wozniacki continues to retain the top rank in the WTA.  The Dane will again be designated as a number 1 seed as the first Slam event of the year – the Aussie Open – commences later this month.  Unfortunately, C-Woz has suffered premature exits over the course of the 2011 Grand Slam events:  Australian – ousted in the Semis; French – 3rd Round departure; Wimbledon – 4th Round loss; US – eliminated in the Semis, and aside from a 2009 US Open finals appearance, she continues to underwhelm in the majors.  Wozniacki does feast on the smaller venues, but Petra Kvitova is gaining ground and should slip past Wozniacki shortly.  Nevertheless, Caroline is the poster girl for women’s tennis and is already featured on the 2012 US Open promotional materials.

Third. Can Ron Paul win the GOP nomination?   In a word, “No.”  In spite of the 3rd place in Iowa and his 2nd place in NH, Ron Paul cannot beat Barack Obama if Paul were to be selected as the GOP’s candidate.  And the GOP strategists know it.  The good doctor’s second place finish in New Hampshire speaks more to the lack of a solid contender, than it does to the serious consideration of Paul’s candidacy.  It also is an indicator that the GOP is not ready to coalesce behind Romney.  Paul will stay in this race and carve off enough of a vote to keep Mitt’s other opponents at bay.  That’s great for Romney winning primaries but bad for both 1) the GOP which will continue to experience a lack of plurality for Mitt’s candidacy and 2) the remaining four candidates who will be unable to mount a challenge.

Jon Huntsman absolutely needed to top Ron Paul in New Hampshire, and even amid Huntsman’s claims that he is “in the hunt,” Big Bad Jon will likely be out between South Carolina on January 21st and Nevada on February 4th.  Perry must get a significant bounce out of the southern swing in SC and Florida or he will be next to cash in his chips.  Santorum’s second place finish in Iowa (or possibly victory in Iowa if you believe the conspiracy theorists) will allow him to get to Super Tuesday (March 6th) provided he is not taken to the woodshed in Florida on January 31st and does something in Arizona and Michigan on February 28th.

And that leaves Newt.  Aside from someone jumping into the fray before too many delegates are allocated, GOP faithful, Gingrich is your Plan B.

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3 Responses to “2012 Facts”

  1. Butch Trischman Says:

    Bench Jocks if you look at the internals of some polling you might be able to see a possible way for Ron Paul to become our next President if he were to run as a third party candidate. He is drawing so strongly among the young voter base that helped put Obama in the White House that he could carve out a coalition that runs ahead of both Obama and say, Romney. He would certainly draw from the libertarian and small government Republicans and Obama will lose a good amount of disaffected independents, blue collar democrats and the elderly that will need to somewhere.

  2. Ian Paregol Says:

    We agree that Ron Paul could run as an an Indie, but when pushed during the NH debate he stepped on the ledge of saying that he would not do that. That being said, he will need to be given a voice at the GOP convention to assure that he does not slit the throats of the GOP by declaring an Independent run. Maybe the Libertarians will need their own convention to decide between Gary Johnson and the good Dr.

  3. Butch Trischman Says:

    The numbers make me think that it might not be a GOP throat slitting if it were to happen. I don’t think that Gary Johnson is the favorite among the cannabis legalization crowd.

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