The Bench Jockeys

August 6, 2015 – In the immortal words of Keith Jackson, “Whoa Nellie!”  Two hours flew by as the Top 10 Republican candidates (more like 9 plus 1 pretender) danced around a series of pointed questions about their respective positions.  As projected, there was a bit of carnage in the nightcap in Cleveland, but what I did not understand is why would Fox purposely phrase so many questions to make the candidates unlikeable.  They are still cleaning up blood from the wounds inflicted upon Rand Paul this evening courtesy of separate attacks from Trump and Christie.

Fox News Channel moderators Megyn Kelly, Chris Wallace and Bret Baier provided an awkward, chatty opening unfitting for a national discussion.  However, once the rhetoric began to fly, it was clear that Fox was targeting Trump’s candidacy and using their inquiries to expose his weaknesses as a Republican candidate.  That, I can understand.  But as a Fox product, why not have the moderators ask a few questions over the course of the evening that might allow the GOP to gain some support from the undecideds.  In my opinion, the phrasing of the questions by the Fox commentators did not bolster the Republican messaging, but instead made each of them appear weaker.

Right off the bat, Trump’s reluctance to waive the possibility of a 3rd party run set the tone for the debate.  With the independent elephant in the room immediately in play, I would have liked to have seen follow-up questions directed to some of the other candidates about “party versus person” in an effort to further isolate Trump since that was the clearly Fox’s intention. Always playing a hunch, it is interesting to note that during the debate, The Donald was overtly supportive of Jeb Bush – which might be a wise hedge bet.

Not all of the candidates were asked the same questions, but each got a crack at a domestic issue and a foreign policy matter.  Using a +2 to -2 rating for each response given, here is how we scored the candidates.

All of the candidates were confronted with similar opening questions which addressed their perceived weaknesses.  Notably, the candidates did not all receive an equal number of questions: Rand Paul and Chris Christie were severely shortchanged.  Huckabee, Cruz and Christie made the most of their opportunities, while the good doctor Carson looked uneasy and did not shine among the top tier candidates.

We had Marco Rubio as the winner for the evening session, but evangelicals, Huckabee and Cruz were close behind and each of the 2nd place finishers were offered one fewer question.  Trump was surprisingly well-behaved but offered little content.  Jeb Bush did not seem excited about his messaging but he plodded along.  Kasich benefitted from the Ohio home cooking, but did not score many points with the Bench Jockeys.

We are now just over 15 months away from election night 2016.  Much can happen between now and the Iowa Caucus (2/1/16), New Hampshire Primary (2/9/16) and Super Tuesday (3/1/16).  We aim to stay on top of the 2016 election, and accordingly, our odds have been adjusted. Click here http://thebenchjockeys.com/updated-odds-for-2016-presidential-nominations/ for our updates which consider our perceptions from both the early show and the main event.

August 6, 2015 – Against a seemingly empty Cleveland auditorium, the lowest polling Republicans were asked an array of questions by Fox News Channel moderators, Bill Hemmer and Martha MacCallum.  Appropriately, the first round of questions explored each of the candidates’ perceived respective weaknesses.  The moderators then offered targeted queries about the candidates’ opinions on Trump, ISIS, privacy rights, immigration, welfare, Iran, recent decisions of the Supreme Court and Executive power.  In a crafty Fox News spin, many of the questions that were asked considered the candidates’ platforms versus the perceived failures of Barack Obama’s policies.

The Bench Jockeys scored and graded all of the individual responses on a +2 to a -2 scale.  (We will use the same format and assessment tool for this evening’s main course.)  Carly Fiorina was the clear winner this afternoon with a total tally of +7.  On the other side of the spectrum, Rick Perry rambled and seemed disorganized; we deemed him the lowest performer with a total score of -4.  Rick Santorum’s love of country and passion were touching (+6) but he has is long way to go.  Gilmore (+2) and Pataki (+2) did not hurt themselves, but did nothing to help them push forward either.  Bobby Jindal (+5) had the best one liner, stating, “give Bernie Sanders credit, at least he is honest enough to call himself a socialist, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are no better.”  Although advocating a widely unpopular position, soft-spoken, Lindsey Graham’s honesty about committing troops to Iraq and Syria to confront ISIS was worth noting; however, the balance of his responsive content was bland (-1).

Bottom line:  Fiorina emerges from the Loser’s Bracket as the most polished, feisty and pointed of the bottom 7.  Depending on the sound bites offered, I would expect her support to surge, but given the early viewing time, she might not convert this impressive effort into votes.

In the meantime, get your popcorn and antacids ready for tonight….

Proposition betting: Odds of seeing someone in a head-lock – 5:2.  Donald Trump exceeding his allotted time on every question – 1:5.  Jeb Bush or Scott Walker closing the gap on Trump by this time next week – 3:2.  Daily double: Odds of either John Kasich or Ben Carson being perceived as the winner this evening – 8:1.

August 3, 2015 – This Thursday (August 6th) I suggest those of you who enjoy watching a nice, slow train wreck tune into Fox News Channel at 9pm in the east.  Cleveland will host what will be the most discussed (and possibly most disgusting) example of individual ego, hyperbole and GOP party cannibalism ever seen as the 10 highest polling 2016 Republican presidential candidates converge on one stage for the political equivalent of Opening Day.  Sure, just like we knew that some of the ball clubs this past April had zero chance of any post-season dreams (sorry, Rockies and Phillies fans), each of these 10 men (sorry, Carly Fiorina fans) somehow think they have a iron-clad path to the nomination.

Blinded by personal ambition while forsaking the end-game goal of the Grand Old Party, what most of the aspirants fail to recognize is that it will not be the populace who decides who will be the nominee, it will be the party.  Amos Tuck will rise from the dead before the GOP allows The Donald the honor of facing off against Hillary, Bernie or Uncle Joe.  Assuming RNC chair, Reince Priebus has learned anything from 2008 and 2012, the Republican Party will not let the intra-party backbiting continue, the field will be purposefully winnowed and the leadership will need to broker a deal with Trump so he does not give the GOP the Ross Perot 1992 skidoo.

And for those of you who love the underdog, the seven remaining Division 1-FCS candidates will also have their opportunity to shine in a lesser-viewed cage match undercard earlier on Thursday at 5PM.  This second tier candidate debate essentially becomes the de facto loser bracket in a double elimination contest.  Notably, each of the “less-than-magnificent 7″ enter this bracket saddled with one loss.  However, miracles do happen… like when 33-27 Fresno State beat Georgia in 2008 to win the College World Series or when Buster Douglas, a 42-1 long shot, KOed Iron Mike in 1990.  It happens, but PAC contributions will begin to wane without a tremendous showing on Thursday.

The Bench Jockeys will be lapping up both of the debates, hoping that there will be an automatic microphone kill switch utilized by the moderators when speaking time expires and updating our odds on Friday based upon what we see.  Click here http://thebenchjockeys.com/updated-odds-for-2016-presidential-nominations/ to see where things stand prior to Thursday’s scuffle.

Sept 8, 2011 – What did we learn from last night’s GOP gab-fest in Simi Valley, Cali?  As far as potential presidential candidates, Mitt Romney looks to be losing his grip on the #1 slot, Rick Perry is gaining ground, Michele Bachmann’s numbers are slipping, Ron Paul is getting older, and no matter how smart Jon Huntsman is, no one is picking him – possibly because of the team he played for last year.  In fact, the whole ranking of GOP hopefuls is not unlike the Fantasy Football draft which 3 of the 4 Bench Jockeys have participated in for the last 20 years and which took place at the exact same time as the Republican debate.  Not a coincidence.

Last night, while DVRing the debate, the stars aligned to allow yours truly to snake Ray Rice as the 6^th pick of the draft.  6^th!  Although I had to change draft strategies on the fly, I am thrilled with the opportunity to own Ray-Ray through the 2012 election.   Interestingly, four game-tested QBs were selected in the first 13 picks, as a significant percentage of the owners did not want to be saddled with an inexperienced leader at the reigns.  Does that perhaps portend the proclivities of the populace?

However, the more intriguing development was the way Jamaal Charles (touted by the media as a top five selection) plummeted all the way to pick #11.  He was the fantasy equivalent of Newt Gingrich – chock full of spin and promise but ultimately dropping off of the radar when the doubts started to surface.  The media can try to establish the market, but a discerning and involved public understands far more than the pabulum that it is fed.   As I watched the post-mortem on the debate, I was positively disgusted at the manner in which a purportedly unbiased media portrayed each candidate as hero or villain depending on the particular leanings of each pundit.  Make no mistake, the media control the message far better and far more effectively than any campaign manager.  The media has the forum and the capacity to bombard the airways with any sound bite, whether favorable or devastating to a candidate, relative to any subject matter.  The only way that a voter can make a truly informed decision is through an individualized analysis, and honestly, who has the time to rifle through the interwebs to fact-check every candidate?  No one.  And that’s exactly what the media counts on.

So open up wide, America.  CNN, NBC and FOX will keep feeding you their agendas and you can just keep swallowing or, maybe, just maybe, you will come to the voting booths on November 6, 2012 with a well-researched portfolio of facts, data and trend analysis where you can formulate your own decisions about the leadership of this great country.

The GOP hopefuls will be back at it again in Iowa on August 11^th.   As the candidates size up one another under the watchful eye of FOX News, the Bench Jockeys thought it was time to separate the contenders from the pretenders and develop a tiered chart for easy review.  On this chart, we have maintained our original opening odds from April 12, 2011 along with each candidate’s current odds to win the nomination (as we see it).  A separate designation (A) has been added for those candidate who have officially entered the fracas.

In this iteration of our odds-making, we have winnowed the field and have scratched Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels to reflect their current intentions to remain on the sidelines.  However, if the citizenry truly begins to seek to limit Obama to one term, Read more »

The June 13^th New Hampshire debate, as moderated by John King of CNN, came off as a media-driven attempt to pit Republicans against one another with pointed set-ups calling into question the few issues that separate the candidates.  The seven Republicans who posted in New Hampshire did not take the bait, instead adhering to Ronald Reagan’s 11^th Commandment given from on high in 1966 when Dutch was running for Governor of California– “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.”  King’s failed efforts to “Jerry Springerize” the first meeting of the GOP heavyweights, did  not make for exciting television, but we did learn two things:  1) without a clock to limit answer response times, the GOP candidates will talk your ears off ; and 2) the Republican candidates recognize that the common opponent is Barack Obama.  The media wants them to cannibalize one another, and each of them clearly choose the vegetarian plate.

Each candidate in Manchester is pro-life, strongly anti-union, and anything but Hawkish – with all seven suggesting that American troops need to come home.  Michele Bachmann – who filed her paperwork to run for the Republican nomination earlier today –reminded viewers that as President, she would be making military decisions as Commander-in-Chief an hour after she introduced herself as a tax lawyer.  Not too reassuring.  Ron Paul came off like an angry grandfather drifting from issue to issue, so much so that if he were in the livingroom at a family function instead of a televised debate, his kids would say, “Okay, Dad, that’ll do.”  Gingrich actually sounded the most sure of himself, filled with facts and good detail.  It’s too bad for his supporters that at this point, Newt is playing from two sets down.  Herman Cain and his point-by-point analysis played well in SC, but an encore performance was too much of the same:  no answers, just lots of consultant-speak analysis.  Santorum did not do anything to hurt is bid – read: no change in his long-shot odds.  T-Paw was adequate, but Romney was stronger tonight.  Is Gary Johnson de facto out?

The Plus-Minus breaks down as follows: The Bench Jockeys think Bachmann’s performance tonight knocks out Sarah Palin as a candidate.  Pluses go to Gingrich & Romney.  Minuses goes to Cain & Paul.  Santorum, Pawlenty and Bachmann held serve.

 May 6, 2011 –   So it wasn’t the Legion of Doom line from the 1996 Philadelphia Flyers (Lindros, LeClair and Renberg) but five of the GOP hopefuls did appear in Greenville, South Carolina to offer their respective campaigns’ spin to the foreign and domestic issues of the day.  I sat through this sound bite event – which was inexplicably termed a “debate” – for its entirety and I felt like I learned a bit more about Gary Johnson who looked uncomfortable in his own skin (and The Bench Jockeys have downgraded him accordingly) and underestimated the “everyman” appeal of a very well-spoken Herman Cain (who earned a boost in his odds).  Tim Pawlenty looked very presidential and at ease.  Although T-Paw was a bit scripted, he offered tight answers and knew when to admit he had made an error rather than executing the standard politician rope-a-dope.  Ron Paul, who was well-supported by the South Carolina audience, looked frail; I think that his window may have closed.  (The Bench Jockeys will be tweaking him downward as well.)   Fellow DSL alum Rick Santorum stood out in the quintet as overly moralistic, and even in this 86 octane mid-grade candidate field, the Rooster did not finish in the Top 3.

Pluses go to Pawlenty and Cain/ A Minus goes to Johnson/ No goals against & no goals scored for Paul and Santorum.

The next Republican gabfest will be Iowa on August 11^th.