The Bench Jockeys

You know that feeling you get around the 9th round of your Fantasy Football draft?  You’ve assembled your starting team, and may have even selected your Kicker and a back-up or two.  The pickings are getting slim.  You have your re-treads, guys you may never have heard of depending on your level of prep work, some big mouths trying to make a name for themselves, a whole host of back-ups, some injured guys who “could” start if a medical miracle happened, and of course, the long shot.

Reminds me of the current GOP Presidential candidates.  Newt Gingrich is the ultimate re-tread.  Nothing left on the tires except Read more »

We are teeing this one up before it hits the mainstream media.

October 5, 2011 – According to the United Nations and barring some unforeseen catastrophe, the world’s population is projected to cross the 7,000,000,000 threshold this Halloween, October 31, 2011.  That seems rather appropriate since “The Day of 7 Billion,” as it is known, absolutely horrifies me.  Each day – we are talking each day, folks – the number of humans on the earth grows by more than 221,000.  This is not just births; this is births less deaths.  And because the population grows at an exponential rate, the per day growth rate edges up each day. 

In 1960, the world population was estimated at 3 billion.  We hit the 6 billion mark in 1999.  Let’s break that down a bit:  from all of antiquity up to 1960 to attain a population of 3 billion and then just another 39 years to double it.  In 1999, the United Nations estimated that we would reach the 7 billion mark in 2013.  Humans, being the overachievers that we are, will meet this troublesome milestone two years early. 

And here is the scary part.  Since the turn of the new millennium, we have been told that we are much more aware of the impact of unchecked population growth and we are much more proactive with respect to woman’s health needs; we have been told how fertility rates are declining and how the use of contraception has reached the developing world.  I don’t see it.  We went from 6 billion to 7 billion in 12 years.  That’s a growth rate of 1.3%.  It’s lower than it was in the 60’s, but it’s still too high.  In the UN’s 1999 Report, “The World at Six Billion,” the United Nations Population Division suggested that we would hit the

• 7 billion mark in 2013              (14 years from the 6B threshold);
• 8 billion in 2028                       (15 years from the 7B threshold);
• 9 billion in 2054                       (26 years from the 8B threshold);
• 10 billion in 2183                     (129 years from the 9B threshold). 

The United Nations Population Division surely can see that the data plots an ever-decreasing interval for each successive billion in growth up to 1999.  What possible factor could they have considered to account for a sudden reversal in the trend line?  For the UN’s numbers to work, as the population reaches 8 and 9 billion, the growth rate will need to be less than 1% – a rate we have not even sniffed.  And the UN projection of reaching 10 billion in 2183 is ludicrous.  That would require a growth rate of a mere .082% (not .82%, .082%) over that 129 years.  Who reviewed this document?  Assuming that there are no cataclysmic events, The Bench Jockeys will bet every collective cent they own that the 10 billion mark will be attained by 2050 – that would still require 38 years of less than a 1% growth rate, a ratio we have well-exceeded for the last 4 billion souls.

October 4, 2011 – It’s been another 2 months and time is running out on the wallflowers waiting for an invitation to join the other Republican hopefuls who are looking to be crowned Prom King (or Queen) in Tampa.  With five states holding primaries in January (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and now Florida), it would appear that everyone who is interested in pursuing the GOP Nomination for the 2012 election has announced his or her candidacy (or better announce soon). 

Although The Bench Jockeys would have enjoyed seeing what Chris Christie brought to the table or listening to Sarah Palin wrangle with Michele Bachmann (meow) during the next round of debates, it appears that we will have to settle for one of these 12 declared candidates.  In version 3.0 of The Bench Jockeys “Odds to Win the GOP Nomination” we have grouped the dirty dozen into quartets.  Unless something absolutely stunning happens, those in the 2^nd Tier (and the bottom half of the 1^st Tier) have some serious work to do in order to get into contention into what is essentially a two horse race.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. Three of them can’t even get invited to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

We are also of the strong opinion – as we stated in version 2.0 – that Marco Rubio is the natural VP selection.  However, Herman Cain’s straw poll victory in Florida clouds that picture a bit.  That being said, we bet that Florida would have selected Rubio in a mano-a-mano match-up between Marco and Herman.

October 2, 2011… It should have been an amazing day in Philadelphia:  two major sporting events where Phans had the chance to revel in the excitement of their sports teams.  In the afternoon, the “Dream Team” Eagles dominated the Niners for the majority of their game.  Up 23-3 midway through the 3^rd quarter, they imploded, losing 24-23.  Same scenario later that evening in the NLDS as the Phils held a 4-zip in the 4^th only to lose 5-4 to the Cards.  The first pitch of the game was hit into right field for a triple.   Amazingly, Cliff Lee got out of the inning unscathed, but perhaps the Phaithful should have realized at that moment that they might not be smiling when the clock struck midnight.

Two things that irritated me: 1) Tony LaRussa (who I respect for his years of baseball experience and knowledge) took a shot at the umpire’s strike zone disparities. Strike Zones for both teams were questionable all game, but it’s low to go on national television and whine about it.  Charlie Manuel in his post-game interview said, “I’m not blaming the umpire, they outplayed us on the field.” EXACTLY.  If the umpire gives you a smaller strike zone, then you have to play better defense and also actually hit the ball.  2) Swinging at the first pitch:  Did the Phils not learn from the prior night’s experience (an 11-run rout) that swinging at the first pitch (and causing an inevitable out) yielded nothing?  Swinging at the first pitch rarely gets you a hit and especially in the Playoffs when adrenaline might be running a little higher than usual causing you to hit a quick pop-up or ground out to second base.  

Weather forecast for St. Louis on Tuesday for Game 3….a sunny 77 degrees with no chance of rain.  We’ll see…