The Bench Jockeys Offer Opening Odds for 2106 Nomination

Posted in Sport/Pol Crossover, US Politics on February 27th, 2015 by Ian Paregol

February 27, 2015 – The 2015 sports scene is off and running.  It began with a collective “What the Heck?” as Pete Carroll gift wrapped the Lombardi Trophy for the Pats with the most incomprehensible play call in Superbowl history.  Next, Novak and Serena  gave notice at the Aussie Open that favorites still rule the day in the ATP and WTA.  Last week, the NASCAR season fired-up its real season which began with Joey Logano’s win in Daytona.  This week, the MLB returns to Florida and Arizona as spring games begin.  And just as teams in the NBA and NHL are jockeying for seeding in their respective leagues, and college hoops teams make their final push to be included in the 2015 March Madness bracket, The Bench Jockeys political Hot Stove is heating up for a humdinger of a 2015 in anticipation of general election in 2016 that will chart the future of the United States into the next decade.

In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, the Bench Jockeys have released odds for the 2016 nomination.  We will keep this tracker up to date as entrants declare and drop out and as political fortunes rise and fall in the GOP.

This year we have the added pleasure of offering the odds (albeit a bookmaker’s dream) for those vying for the nomination on the Democrat ticket.  Hint:  Hillary Clinton is a presently at 1:7 which will only drift away from a “sure thing” if something surfaces from the investigations involving Benghazi or the foreign government money accepted by the Clinton Foundation. 

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Democrat and Republican races for the White House. 

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the 2016 nomination.

Democrats

Candidate

Age

Background

Opening Odds

Current Odds♤

Joseph Biden 72 VP US; Fmr Sen DE 35:1 35:1
Hillary Clinton 67 Fmr. US Sen NY; Fmr. US Sec of State 1:7 1:7
Jim Webb 69 Fmr US Sen VA 30:1 30:1
Martin O’Malley 52 Fmr Gov MD; Fmr. Mayor Baltimore 25:1 25:1
Bernie Sanders* 73 US Sen VT; Fmr Rep US House VT 35:1 35:1
Mark Warner 60 US Sen VA; Fmr Gov VA 50:1 50:1
Elizabeth Warren 65 US Sen MA 48:1 48:1

* Registered Ind. may run as a Dem.    

♤ Odds updated 3/7/15

Rand CPAC

Marco CPACPerry CPACSantorum CPAC


 

 

Republicans

Candidate

Age

Background

Opening Odds

Current Odds♢

John Bolton 66 Fmr US Ambassador UN 75:1 75:1
Jeb Bush 62 Fmr Gov FL 7:2 7:2
Ben Carson 63 No political offices held; neurosurgeon 22:1 30:1
Chris Christie 52 Gov NJ 12:1 12:1
Ted Cruz 44 US Sen TX 8:1 10:1
Carly Fiorina 60 No political offices held, Fmr CEO HP 50:1 50:1
Lindsey Graham 59 US Sen SC; Fmr US House Rep SC 45:1 45:1
Mike Huckabee 59 Fmr Gov AR 17:1 17:1
Bobby Jindal 43 Gov LA; Fmr US House Rep LA 50:1 50:1
John Kasich 62 Gov OH; Fmr US House Rep OH 70:1 70:1
Rand Paul 52 US Sen KY 6:1 6:1
Mike Pence 55 Gov IN, US House Rep IN 40:1 40:1
Rick Perry 64 Fmr Gov TX 18:1 18:1
Marco Rubio 43 US Sen FL; US  House Rep FL 10:1 12:1
Rick Santorum 56 Fmr US Sen PA; Fmr US House Rep PA 45:1 45:1
Donald Trump 68 No political offices held; CEO Trump 100:1 100:1
Scott Walker 47 Gov WI 9:1 9:1
         

 ♢ Odds updated 3/7/15

Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

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Klitschko Throws His Hat into the Ring

Posted in International Political Scene, Sport/Pol Crossover, The Quick Hook on August 21st, 2013 by Ian Paregol

scoop[1]On August 9th, The Bench Jockeys wrote about the intriguing connection between professional athletes and their pursuit of political office at the conclusion of their professional careers. http://thebenchjockeys.com/?p=1321

As if on cue, on August 14th, boxing’s reigning world heavyweight champion Vitali Klitschko announced his plans to run for the presidency of the Ukraine in 2015.  Klitschko, nicknamed “Doctor Ironfist,” makes a formidable foe in any ring and his entre into the political scene in the Ukraine will make for a fascinating sideline once the election heats up.  Malaysian news source The Star followed the good doctor’s announcement by offering an article for its readership on …wait for it…. the connection between professional athletes and political office.  That’s another Pat Riley on the back for The Bench Jockeys who again offer our loyalists insights before the larger media outlets can catch up.

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Magglio Ordonez for Mayor? Not so Fast

Posted in Professional Sports, Sport/Pol Crossover, US Politics on August 9th, 2013 by Ian Paregol

ChavezordonezConsistent with our core mission of bringing together Sports and Politics, The Bench Jockeys noted with keen interest the candidacy of former Detroit Tigers and Chicago White Sox outfielder Magglio Ordonez’s who is presently running for Mayor of the Venezuelan city of Puerto La Cruz.  Like the late Venezuelan President, Hugo Chavez (pictured on the left), Magglio Ordonez (pictured on the right) is an avowed socialist… maybe Ordonez’s political slant was cultivated while he was playing in Chicago.  Puerto La Cruz boasts a population of almost half a million people and hosts one of the largest refineries in oil-rich Venezuela so this position carries with it quite a bit of responsibility.  Is it really a major league baseball player’s place to be providing leadership to a city like Puerto La Cruz? So that got us wondering about 2 things:

  • 1) Who are the most accomplished political leaders who also played a professional sport? 
  • 2) Should the citizens of Puerto La Cruz decide to elect Ordonez, how have professional athletes performed as political leaders?

First we turn to Issue 1.  For starters, there have been no US Presidents who have also played a professional sport, but Read more »

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Late Rounders

Posted in Sport/Pol Crossover, US Politics on October 20th, 2011 by Craig Zuckerman

You know that feeling you get around the 9th round of your Fantasy Football draft?  You’ve assembled your starting team, and may have even selected your Kicker and a back-up or two.  The pickings are getting slim.  You have your re-treads, guys you may never have heard of depending on your level of prep work, some big mouths trying to make a name for themselves, a whole host of back-ups, some injured guys who “could” start if a medical miracle happened, and of course, the long shot.

Reminds me of the current GOP Presidential candidates.  Newt Gingrich is the ultimate re-tread.  Nothing left on the tires except Read more »

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GOP Fantasy Draft Kit

Posted in Sport/Pol Crossover, US Politics on September 8th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Sept 8, 2011 – What did we learn from last night’s GOP gab-fest in Simi Valley, Cali?  As far as potential presidential candidates, Mitt Romney looks to be losing his grip on the #1 slot, Rick Perry is gaining ground, Michele Bachmann’s numbers are slipping, Ron Paul is getting older, and no matter how smart Jon Huntsman is, no one is picking him – possibly because of the team he played for last year.  In fact, the whole ranking of GOP hopefuls is not unlike the Fantasy Football draft which 3 of the 4 Bench Jockeys have participated in for the last 20 years and which took place at the exact same time as the Republican debate.  Not a coincidence.

Last night, while DVRing the debate, the stars aligned to allow yours truly to snake Ray Rice as the 6th pick of the draft.  6th!  Although I had to change draft strategies on the fly, I am thrilled with the opportunity to own Ray-Ray through the 2012 election.   Interestingly, four game-tested QBs were selected in the first 13 picks, as a significant percentage of the owners did not want to be saddled with an inexperienced leader at the reigns.  Does that perhaps portend the proclivities of the populace?

However, the more intriguing development was the way Jamaal Charles (touted by the media as a top five selection) plummeted all the way to pick #11.  He was the fantasy equivalent of Newt Gingrich – chock full of spin and promise but ultimately dropping off of the radar when the doubts started to surface.  The media can try to establish the market, but a discerning and involved public understands far more than the pabulum that it is fed.   As I watched the post-mortem on the debate, I was positively disgusted at the manner in which a purportedly unbiased media portrayed each candidate as hero or villain depending on the particular leanings of each pundit.  Make no mistake, the media control the message far better and far more effectively than any campaign manager.  The media has the forum and the capacity to bombard the airways with any sound bite, whether favorable or devastating to a candidate, relative to any subject matter.  The only way that a voter can make a truly informed decision is through an individualized analysis, and honestly, who has the time to rifle through the interwebs to fact-check every candidate?  No one.  And that’s exactly what the media counts on.

So open up wide, America.  CNN, NBC and FOX will keep feeding you their agendas and you can just keep swallowing or, maybe, just maybe, you will come to the voting booths on November 6, 2012 with a well-researched portfolio of facts, data and trend analysis where you can formulate your own decisions about the leadership of this great country.

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Hurricanes Become the New Eye of the College Football Storm

Posted in College Sports, Sport/Pol Crossover on August 28th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

To say it has been a tumultuous offseason for college football would be an understatement.  Former booster Nevin Shapiro’s allegations of impropriety at the University of Miami make Jim Tressel’s “don’t ask, don’t tell” transgressions at Ohio State – which came to light earlier this spring – look rather pedestrian.  The Ponzi-scheming jail-bird, Shapiro, maintains that he has provided millions of dollars’ worth of financial benefits to at least 72 University of Miami student-athletes for nine years beginning in 2002.  The accusations against the Hurricanes come just one year after the University of Southern California Trojans were required to forfeit an entire year’s games, lost 30 football scholarships beginning in 2010, were forced to vacate its 2005 BCS National Championship and sustained a two year post season ban (2010 & 2010) as a consequence of illegal benefits lavished upon star tailback, Reggie Bush back in 2004.  If even 10% of what Shapiro says is true, Miami is in line to face stiffer penalties than USC.   However, the bottom line for the “Canes Nation is: will the NCAA Committee on Infractions determine that the actions of the university rise to the level of a willful violation and justify the recommendation the “death penalty” for The U?  It surely does not appear that University President, Donna Shalala can dodge exposure in light of the bowling alley photo that has surfaced of her, Shapiro and a check, so perhaps she needs to take one for the team so Miami’s football program can avoid being the new poster child for rules’ violations. Read more »

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Hybrid Theory

Posted in Sport/Pol Crossover, US Politics on May 5th, 2011 by Craig Zuckerman

After returning from five days and nine rounds of golf in Myrtle Beach with my new favorite golf club – a hybrid – it got me to thinking how there’s more and more combo platters these days.  Every day we come across two ideas/products/life forms that have somehow been combined into one presumably preferable concept.  For example, words (bigamy, from the Latin meaning: twice and the Greek meaning: wedlock), convertible bonds (what’s better than that), dogs (I prefer the Dorkie, a Dachshund/Yorkie hybrid), mermaids (obvious upside), plants (peppermint is actually a hybrid between spearmint and water mint), fruit (grapefruit is a hybrid between a pomelo and the Jamaican sweet orange), sports (Frisbee golf & Horseball [a combination between polo and basketball]) and of course, politicians.

When President Obama extended the Bush tax cuts, his donkey’s snout became an elephant’s trunk.  When President Bush enacted TARP, his elephant ears shrunk to the size of a donkey’s. Maybe this country would be better off if  Read more »

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Butler Fails to Execute While US May Be Executing to Fail

Posted in College Sports, Sport/Pol Crossover, The Horseshoe on April 5th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Sadly, March Madness has concluded with perhaps one of least entertaining games of the entire Men’s 2011 NCAA Tournament.  Although UConn played some solid D, I am not so sure it was so much the Huskies winning the game or Butler losing it.  The Bulldogs were abysmal from the floor, continued to pop the ball outside in lieu of drawing fouls underneath and looked out of sync for 90% of the game.  Given his recent history of success and the unique capabilities of this two-time NCAA finalist, I am sure wunderkind Brad Stevens prepared a game plan consistent with his team’s strengths.  Butler’s game plan was to go in to Houston, defend the aerial attack to limit UConn 3s, attack its foe with some long range bombing and mop up with Matt Howard underneath.  But the circumstances changed early in the 2nd half.  Butler continued to toss trey bombs from the outside, but the boys manning the paint could not finish the job.  Oh, and while trying to defend at the arc, the gate was open inside for some easy pickins’.   You know where I am going, right?  Yep, Libya. Read more »

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Athletics & Giants in the Post-Season! Has the Earth’s Axis Tilted?

Posted in Chazerai, Professional Sports, Sport/Pol Crossover on March 31st, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Why, in fact,… it has.  Japan’s March 11th earthquake shifted the earth’s axis by 6.5 inches, thereby speeding up the day ever so slightly and causing a slight wobble in the spin of the planet.  Knuckleballers rejoice – your junk should seem a smidge faster and have even more movement.  Scientists maintain that these changes are inconsequential and bear no relevance to the continued existence of earth’s inhabitants;  however, I think otherwise.  First of all, there is just not enough chatter about the impact of this ominous axial move (which in and of itself causes me to pause); and secondly, how could a shift of the earth’s position be anything but bad.  I speculate that this axis shift will hasten baseball’s mutation from a sport dominated by east coast franchises to one where the left coast teams carry the swagger, a trend that began to emerge last year.

Which leads us to this year’s predictions.  The easy pick here is the Red Sox versus the Phillies in the 2011 World Series.  All 44 of ESPN’s pundits forecasted Boston to win the AL East, 39 of them predicted that Boston would represent the AL and 33 of those folks expect the Sox to win the World Series.  That’s really going out on a limb gang.  Even Harpo – the silent Bench Jockey – is of the opinion that we will be watching Lester against Halladay in the Fall Classic.   However, I say, when something seems so obvious, do the opposite.  I like the young arms in Oakland to emerge from a weak AL West and shock the so-called “experts.”  Need I say anything other than the Texas Rangers in 2010?  In the NL, San Francisco is essentially the same team that won in 2010 except now they have some self-confidence in their ability to win.  Half the US doesn’t even remember they won it all last year, and the other half think it was a fluke.  Even in winning, they have a chip on their shoulders. 

So what does this mean for baseball in 2011?  The earthquake series redux.  It just seems like a fitting end.

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Opening Day for The Bench Jockeys

Posted in Our Mission, Sport/Pol Crossover on March 28th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

It just seemed appropriate that The Bench Jockeys initiated their Blog to coincide with the start of the 2011 MLB Season.  Although there is nothing like debating AL and NL Pennant chances for the upcoming baseball season and analyzing the strengths, but more likely, the weaknesses of current and former ML players, starting this Blog at this time offers The Bench Jockeys the opportunity to assess the potential play-off scenarios in the National Hockey League, as well as the contenders and the pretenders for the Green Jacket, which is  just around the corner on April 7th.  The NBA is just absolute garbage, so you won’t see much from us about that steaming pile, but you will be able to read about the Final Four and VCU’s improbable run.  (We don’t hate basketball, we just hate the NBA.)  Conflicts, oddities and head-shaking actions within NASCAR, soccer, tennis, even the much-maligned PBA, will be served up with cheeky commentary and exploration.

But it’s not just about sports here at The Bench Jockeys, oh no.  We have opinions about any number of subjects.  And along with the sports banter, we intend to mix in a fair share of analysis about the national political scene, potential domestic and global crises, and of course, we fully intend to heckle leaders deserving of derision.  We hope that you will come along for the ride and participate in the discourse.

Oh, and in case you didn’t notice it in the pic above, Barack Obama is a lefty.  Now, there’s a big surprise.

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Why…. The Bench Jockeys?

Posted in Our Mission, Sport/Pol Crossover on March 28th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Click the Ferris and Cameron link below, you won’t be sorry…

Ferris and Cameron

According to the ever-insightful Wikipedia… a Bench Jockey is a slang term in American baseball to describe a player, coach or manager with the talent of annoying and distracting opposition players and umpires from his team’s dugout with verbal repartee. The art of riding opposition players enough to unnerve them and perhaps enough to enrage them and provoke a fight is believed to be fast-fading in the 21st century game.  To that we say, “Too bad.”   The Bench Jockeys are bringing it back into vogue.

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The Plus-Minus

Posted in Our Mission, Sport/Pol Crossover, The Plus-Minus on March 27th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

For all you non-Puck Heads, the Plus-Minus is a Hockey statistic which measures a player’s team goal differential for the time he is on the ice during even-strength and shorthanded play.  The Plus-Minus statistic is increased by one (a “plus”) for each player on the ice for the team scoring a non-powerplay goal and it is decreased by one (a “minus”) for each player on the ice when a non-powerplay goal is scored against the team.   More recently, Read more »

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What happens when you cross a Cricket with a Grudge?

Posted in Chazerai, International Political Scene, Sport/Pol Crossover, The Horseshoe on March 26th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

I’ll admit it, I don’t understand cricket. Having read synopses of the rules associated with the sport, the terminology used and the elements of the game, it just does not fit into my sports experience paradigm.   The field makes no sense (oval); the positions make no sense (there’s a player called the “silly” and there is another slot called the “sillier”); and the scoring makes no sense (I can’t even describe that in some pithy way).  See if you can make heads or tails of this………..

I thought not.

However, there is no other arena where sports and politics are seemingly more entwined this Spring than in Mohali, Chandigarh, India as Pakistan squares off against India in the semi-final match of the 2011 ICC Cricket World Cup on March 30th.  For those of you who remain inside your Western Hemisphere boxes, Pakistani militants, from the terrorist group known as Lashkar-e-Taiba targeted Mumbai, India in November 2008 with a coordinated three-day attack during which 164 residents were killed and more than 300 were wounded in shootings and bomb blasts.  The attack is now commonly referred to as “26/11,” – which kind of sounds like our 9/11 –  so this is a big deal in India.  The scars from the 2008 attacks remain fresh in the hearts and minds of the home team, and as a result, this semi-final match takes on ominous quality with the winner of the cricket match advancing to the World Cup finals and the loser of the potential regional conflict facing nuclear annihilation.

For those of us in the West who have never had a formal introduction to cricket (and really, you need more like a graduate level course than an introduction) we assume that cricket is predominately a fancy-man sport played in England and in few of its former territorial islands by well-dressed gents.  However, in both Pakistan and India, cricket is “the game.”  Fans are rabid – so much so that during this year’s ICC Cricket World Cup, violence has erupted prior to less ideologically-ripe matches outside India’s stadiums resulting in a very physical response by Indian police patrols.   Take a look at this guy.   He is not going to be too thrilled if Pakistan advances to the finals.

This week’s Pakistan-India contest may lead to heightened tensions on the sub-continent, or perhaps, this gentleman’s game will yield greater cooperation and understanding between these two nuclear powers.  Well,… that’s probably not going to happen.  But, here’s an instance where both sides would be happy with a geo-political draw.

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The Development of the Conceded Putz

Posted in Conceded Putz, Our Mission, Sport/Pol Crossover on March 26th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

When a golfer in match play “concedes a putt” to his opponent, he is acknowledging that the putt which his opponent is about to attempt is within a reasonable distance and is deemed holed.  The opponent does not need to strike the ball.  A conceded putt is offered as a gesture of good sportsmanship and has become part of the fabric of golf.  In 1969, at the final hole, in the final pairing of the 1969 Ryder Cup, Jack Nicklaus conceded Tony Jacklin’s knee-knocker of a putt giving England a halve of the entire match (the first tie in Ryder Cup history).  Sure, Nicklaus could have made Jacklin putt his ball, but golf just isn’t that way.

Although the Golden Bear’s concession was a fine illustration of the notion of fair play and integrity, The Bench Jockeys have no intention of following suit.  Content categorized under the Conceded Putz will involve the dubious dealings of self-important and vainglorious sports personalities and global leaders.  We know that spelling is c-o-n-c-e-i-t-e-d; it’s a play on words.  We welcome your suggestions for this topic in the comment box below.

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How The Horseshoe came to be

Posted in Our Mission, Sport/Pol Crossover, The Horseshoe on March 24th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

The Horseshoe will feature commentary that is primarily political in nature.  That is not to say that the sometimes-interconnected worlds of politics and sports will not merge within the content of blogs designated with our horseshoe logo, but The Horseshoe will offer readers, whose primary interest is in national and foreign matters, an easy to find bookmark within the body of The Bench Jockeys site. 

So, why The Horseshoe

  • 20th Century French philosopher, Jean-Pierre Faye theorized that rather than the far left and the far right being on the opposite ends of a linear political continuum, the ideologies begin to resemble one another as extremes are championed.  Thus, the ideological ends draw closer to one another, and correspondingly, away from the middle.   As we look at a horseshoe, the center is further away from the endpoints than the extremes are from one another.  (That, and a lukewarm cup of coffee is the kind of profound analysis you get with a political science scholarship.)
  • The Horseshoe remains the iconic image of my beloved Baltimore Colts which were “re-appropriated” to Indianapolis under cover of night by Bob Irsay 27 years ago this week after the Maryland Senate supported legislation on March 27, 1984 allowing the City of Baltimore to seize the Baltimore Colts under reminent domain.  On March 29th, Irsay, fearing a morning raid on the team’s headquarters, accepted a deal to move the team lock, stock and barrel to Indy, hours before the Maryland House of Delegates concurred with the Senate eminent domain legislation.   (A fitting intersection of sports and politics.) 
  • Bench jockeys….jockeys ride horses….horses wear horseshoes…..get it?
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A Little about “4th and Long”

Posted in 4th and Long, College Sports, Our Mission, Sport/Pol Crossover on March 20th, 2011 by Ian Paregol

Content falling within the 4th and Long category will typically concern matters where little hope exists for a successful outcome.   All references to Jimmy Chitwood and “Hooisers” aside, a pre-game analysis of the recent Hampton-Duke game, in which super-frosh, Kyrie Irving, was slated to return to the line-up is a perfect example of a 4th and Long post.  No way, no how, was the Hampton Pirates squad going to keep defending NCAA Tourney Champ Duke from advancing to third round action.  Granted, ocassionally the Davids slay the Goliaths in the NCAAs, but Hampton was in for a long day at the 2:03-mark of the first half down 7- zip in what was essentially a home game for the Blue Devils.

It’s not that different in Libya for Muammar Gadhafi.  Although he is in a dangerous 4th and Long situation, he is not bringing out his punter to kick the ball back to the Benghazi Runnin’ Rebels.  The result should be about the same as in the Hampton-Duke game, a shellacking.

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