The Bench Jockeys

October 4, 2011 – It’s been another 2 months and time is running out on the wallflowers waiting for an invitation to join the other Republican hopefuls who are looking to be crowned Prom King (or Queen) in Tampa.  With five states holding primaries in January (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and now Florida), it would appear that everyone who is interested in pursuing the GOP Nomination for the 2012 election has announced his or her candidacy (or better announce soon). 

Although The Bench Jockeys would have enjoyed seeing what Chris Christie brought to the table or listening to Sarah Palin wrangle with Michele Bachmann (meow) during the next round of debates, it appears that we will have to settle for one of these 12 declared candidates.  In version 3.0 of The Bench Jockeys “Odds to Win the GOP Nomination” we have grouped the dirty dozen into quartets.  Unless something absolutely stunning happens, those in the 2^nd Tier (and the bottom half of the 1^st Tier) have some serious work to do in order to get into contention into what is essentially a two horse race.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. Three of them can’t even get invited to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

We are also of the strong opinion – as we stated in version 2.0 – that Marco Rubio is the natural VP selection.  However, Herman Cain’s straw poll victory in Florida clouds that picture a bit.  That being said, we bet that Florida would have selected Rubio in a mano-a-mano match-up between Marco and Herman.

The GOP hopefuls will be back at it again in Iowa on August 11^th.   As the candidates size up one another under the watchful eye of FOX News, the Bench Jockeys thought it was time to separate the contenders from the pretenders and develop a tiered chart for easy review.  On this chart, we have maintained our original opening odds from April 12, 2011 along with each candidate’s current odds to win the nomination (as we see it).  A separate designation (A) has been added for those candidate who have officially entered the fracas.

In this iteration of our odds-making, we have winnowed the field and have scratched Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels to reflect their current intentions to remain on the sidelines.  However, if the citizenry truly begins to seek to limit Obama to one term, Read more »

During the initial days of Operation Odyssey Dawn, the Bench Jockeys wrote about our take on President Obama’s decision to partner with NATO forces in supporting air strikes in Libya.  (See http://thebenchjockeys.com/2011/03/22/odyssey-dawn-whats-that-flower-you-have-on/  and http://thebenchjockeys.com/2011/04/05/butler-fails-to-execute-while-us-may-be-executing-to-fail/ )  Now over 100 days into what was deemed a “limited” operation in Libya, we are still asking:  What is the objective of our military involvement in Libya?

Both Democrats and Republicans oppose the intervention for an array of reasons:

• the cost of the effort,
• the potential for escalation and the US long-term role in a prolonged civil war,
• the message it sends to other countries about the US definition of sovereignty, and
• the lack of defined objectives

But the true Congressional opposition lies in the potential for unchecked military action in the Executive Branch by the weakening of the War Powers Resolution of 1973 (WPR).  By soft-peddling the President’s actions in Libya, the Administration has Read more »

The June 13^th New Hampshire debate, as moderated by John King of CNN, came off as a media-driven attempt to pit Republicans against one another with pointed set-ups calling into question the few issues that separate the candidates.  The seven Republicans who posted in New Hampshire did not take the bait, instead adhering to Ronald Reagan’s 11^th Commandment given from on high in 1966 when Dutch was running for Governor of California– “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.”  King’s failed efforts to “Jerry Springerize” the first meeting of the GOP heavyweights, did  not make for exciting television, but we did learn two things:  1) without a clock to limit answer response times, the GOP candidates will talk your ears off ; and 2) the Republican candidates recognize that the common opponent is Barack Obama.  The media wants them to cannibalize one another, and each of them clearly choose the vegetarian plate.

Each candidate in Manchester is pro-life, strongly anti-union, and anything but Hawkish – with all seven suggesting that American troops need to come home.  Michele Bachmann – who filed her paperwork to run for the Republican nomination earlier today –reminded viewers that as President, she would be making military decisions as Commander-in-Chief an hour after she introduced herself as a tax lawyer.  Not too reassuring.  Ron Paul came off like an angry grandfather drifting from issue to issue, so much so that if he were in the livingroom at a family function instead of a televised debate, his kids would say, “Okay, Dad, that’ll do.”  Gingrich actually sounded the most sure of himself, filled with facts and good detail.  It’s too bad for his supporters that at this point, Newt is playing from two sets down.  Herman Cain and his point-by-point analysis played well in SC, but an encore performance was too much of the same:  no answers, just lots of consultant-speak analysis.  Santorum did not do anything to hurt is bid – read: no change in his long-shot odds.  T-Paw was adequate, but Romney was stronger tonight.  Is Gary Johnson de facto out?

The Plus-Minus breaks down as follows: The Bench Jockeys think Bachmann’s performance tonight knocks out Sarah Palin as a candidate.  Pluses go to Gingrich & Romney.  Minuses goes to Cain & Paul.  Santorum, Pawlenty and Bachmann held serve.

June 9, 2011 – The race for the 2012 GOP nomination is barely out of the starting gate and Newt Gingrich is already coming up lame.  Since Newt threw his hat into the ring less than one month ago (May 11^th), he has tangled with pundits targeting his fidelity, he has dodged an onslaught of intra-party criticism concerning his position on Medicare, he has verbally wrestled with Bob Schieffer on Meet The Press over his $250,000 credit limit at Tiffany’s (which, by the way, is Newt’s business, not America’s), and he been deemed “not a serious candidate” by the mainstream press as he concluded a delightful two week cruise in Turkey and Greece (against the urgings of his political machine).  However, this week’s bombshell is the cherry on the sundae.  Today, all of the top aides working for the Gingrich campaign resigned in a mass exodus, and Gingrich’s entire operation in Iowa is gone along with those persons providing leadership in the other early assessment states of New Hampshire and South Carolina.

It’s no surprise that the Bench Jockey’s oddsmaker’s are reacting very strongly to the implosion in Gingrich’s base of operations by dropping his 2012 GOP Nominations odds to 80:1.  Accordingly, The Bench Jockeys are calling Newt Gingrich all but out of the 2012 Republican Race.  In a true thinking man’s move, former Georgia Governor, Sonny Perdue, was immediately hired by Gingrich rival (and Bench Jockeys’ 3:1 favorite) Tim Pawlenty to assist in T-Paw’s national campaign strategy.  We also feel that Newt’s departure also opens the door for Texas Governor Rick Perry.  Rob Johnson and David Carney – two of Gingrich’s former lead strategists – are FOP (Friends of Perry).  And because Johnson and Carney need to eat, we are giving Gov. Perry’s odds an up-tick.

In the meantime, Gingrich is using Facebook to keep his waning supporters in tow, declaring through social media, “I am committed to running the substantive, solutions-oriented campaign I set out to run earlier this spring.  The campaign begins anew Sunday in Los Angeles.”  Maybe he should also place an ad in the Help Wanted section of The Des Moines Register, oh, and maybe one in the Obituaries.

May 22 – Although the rapture did not occur yesterday, another viable candidate from the Republican field was carried away from consideration.

With Barbour, Huckabee, and Trump already standing on the sidelines, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is the latest to decline to square off with the remaining Republican candidates in an effort to wrestle the White House away from President Obama.

The Bench Jockeys thought that Daniels had a legitimate chance to secure the nomination as an 8:1 contender – the third highest ratio from our oddsmaking team.  Citing Read more »

May 15, 2011 – Wasting time arguing over whether the American public would benefit from ending subsidies for Oil companies is just another symbol of how well our political system operates.  Granted, the Feds did promote a delightful dog and pony show by holding a hearing on May 12th designed to explore the rationale behind subsidizing the oil industry.  However, the best part of the hearing on was  Read more »

Mike Huckabee – a Bench Jockeys top five contender for the 2012 GOP nomination – has stated that his heart is not in a Presidential run, and for now, he is out.  The Former Arkansas Governor, Southern Baptist minister and Fox News host opened at 9:1 to win the Republican nomination.  This surprising turn of events shakes up an already convoluted field and allows some of the second tier candidates an opportunity to make a move.   As a result, fellow social conservative Michele Bachmann gets Read more »

 May 6, 2011 –   So it wasn’t the Legion of Doom line from the 1996 Philadelphia Flyers (Lindros, LeClair and Renberg) but five of the GOP hopefuls did appear in Greenville, South Carolina to offer their respective campaigns’ spin to the foreign and domestic issues of the day.  I sat through this sound bite event – which was inexplicably termed a “debate” – for its entirety and I felt like I learned a bit more about Gary Johnson who looked uncomfortable in his own skin (and The Bench Jockeys have downgraded him accordingly) and underestimated the “everyman” appeal of a very well-spoken Herman Cain (who earned a boost in his odds).  Tim Pawlenty looked very presidential and at ease.  Although T-Paw was a bit scripted, he offered tight answers and knew when to admit he had made an error rather than executing the standard politician rope-a-dope.  Ron Paul, who was well-supported by the South Carolina audience, looked frail; I think that his window may have closed.  (The Bench Jockeys will be tweaking him downward as well.)   Fellow DSL alum Rick Santorum stood out in the quintet as overly moralistic, and even in this 86 octane mid-grade candidate field, the Rooster did not finish in the Top 3.

Pluses go to Pawlenty and Cain/ A Minus goes to Johnson/ No goals against & no goals scored for Paul and Santorum.

The next Republican gabfest will be Iowa on August 11^th.

Although Ireland’s largest bookmaker, Paddy Power, has made Barack Obama a 2:5 favorite in winning re-election, The Bench Jockeys are not quite so sure.  The election is still 18 months away and anything can happen.  Obama will not face any competition from his fellow Democrats so he can hold onto his war chest until a worthy opponent is identified, whereas each of the GOP candidates will need to use his/her fundraising money early and often to gain separation and party traction.  History tells us that only four incumbent presidents have been denied a nomination to run by their own party:  Millard Fillmore, Chester A. Arthur, Andrew Johnson and Franklin Pierce.  Quick Pop Quiz:  What do three of these four men have in common?  Answer: Read more »

April 25 – Like Cosmo Kramer in “The Contest,” Mississippi Governor, Haley Barbour is out.  The Bench Jockeys considered Barbour a mid-level contender for the 2012 Republican nomination and as a result of today’s announcement, the current money lines must be assessed.  We detected that there was likely some blood in the water when the media began to scrutinize Barbour’s days as a lobbyist, but we did not expect him to fold this early.   

As for ripple impacts on the remaining 34 potential candidates, The Bench Jockeys are tweaking Gingrich, Huckabee and Daniels.  With Barbour out, Read more »

April 21 – Former Governor of New Mexico, Gary Johnson, officially threw his hat into the ring today in New Hampshire but remains a Republican darkhorse.  Because The Bench Jockeys saw this one coming and determined that Johnson has barely a prayer of securing the nomination, Johnson’s opening odds – 500:1 – remain unchanged.  The skinny on Johnson is that as Governor, he rarely came across a piece of legislation he liked – setting national records for his utilization of the gubernatorial veto, he opposed the war in Iraq from the get-go, he favors putting the educational system entirely in the hands of parents & local authorities and he supports legalizing marijuana as a means to combat the drug-related violence.

Check to our contenders and pretenders Page at http://thebenchjockeys.com/the-bench-jockeys-set-odds-on-the-2012-presidential-hopefuls/

14 hours after establishing odds for the 2012 Republican nomination, The Bench Jockeys have their first modification.  Haley Barbour has been downgraded to 15:1 from his opening 10:1 odds.  AP’s recent analysis of Haley Barbour’s work during his years as a lobbyist Read more »

April 11, 2011  – In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, The Bench Jockeys have scoured the US news outlets, scrutinized birth certificates, examined any number of self-serving PR posts, and by God, done a little hard-nosed research all in the interest of being your one-source stop for the 2012 Presidential Election marathon which began last week with Barack Obama’s declaration of his billion dollar fundraising target.  Tonight, Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty tossed his hat into the ring.  

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Republican race against Barack Obama.  We have also included a few Independents and a Libertarian just to stay trendy, but we all know that the President will emerge from either the Republican or Democratic ranks.  As additional candidates step into the fray, we will keep you posted with updates and current odds.  When news happens that impacts a particular candidate’s odds of being selected by his/her party, we will tweet about it and post to this page.  Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the Repulican Party’s nomination for the 2012 Presidential Election.

 **For the Independents and Libertarians, odds posted are the odds of winning the presidency. 

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

Sadly, March Madness has concluded with perhaps one of least entertaining games of the entire Men’s 2011 NCAA Tournament.  Although UConn played some solid D, I am not so sure it was so much the Huskies winning the game or Butler losing it.  The Bulldogs were abysmal from the floor, continued to pop the ball outside in lieu of drawing fouls underneath and looked out of sync for 90% of the game.  Given his recent history of success and the unique capabilities of this two-time NCAA finalist, I am sure wunderkind Brad Stevens prepared a game plan consistent with his team’s strengths.  Butler’s game plan was to go in to Houston, defend the aerial attack to limit UConn 3s, attack its foe with some long range bombing and mop up with Matt Howard underneath.  But the circumstances changed early in the 2^nd half.  Butler continued to toss trey bombs from the outside, but the boys manning the paint could not finish the job.  Oh, and while trying to defend at the arc, the gate was open inside for some easy pickins’.   You know where I am going, right?  Yep, Libya. Read more »

I’ll admit it, I don’t understand cricket. Having read synopses of the rules associated with the sport, the terminology used and the elements of the game, it just does not fit into my sports experience paradigm.   The field makes no sense (oval); the positions make no sense (there’s a player called the “silly” and there is another slot called the “sillier”); and the scoring makes no sense (I can’t even describe that in some pithy way).  See if you can make heads or tails of this………..

I thought not.

However, there is no other arena where sports and politics are seemingly more entwined this Spring than in Mohali, Chandigarh, India as Pakistan squares off against India in the semi-final match of the 2011 ICC Cricket World Cup on March 30^th.  For those of you who remain inside your Western Hemisphere boxes, Pakistani militants, from the terrorist group known as Lashkar-e-Taiba targeted Mumbai, India in November 2008 with a coordinated three-day attack during which 164 residents were killed and more than 300 were wounded in shootings and bomb blasts.  The attack is now commonly referred to as “26/11,” – which kind of sounds like our 9/11 –  so this is a big deal in India.  The scars from the 2008 attacks remain fresh in the hearts and minds of the home team, and as a result, this semi-final match takes on ominous quality with the winner of the cricket match advancing to the World Cup finals and the loser of the potential regional conflict facing nuclear annihilation.

For those of us in the West who have never had a formal introduction to cricket (and really, you need more like a graduate level course than an introduction) we assume that cricket is predominately a fancy-man sport played in England and in few of its former territorial islands by well-dressed gents.  However, in both Pakistan and India, cricket is “the game.”  Fans are rabid – so much so that during this year’s ICC Cricket World Cup, violence has erupted prior to less ideologically-ripe matches outside India’s stadiums resulting in a very physical response by Indian police patrols.   Take a look at this guy.   He is not going to be too thrilled if Pakistan advances to the finals.

This week’s Pakistan-India contest may lead to heightened tensions on the sub-continent, or perhaps, this gentleman’s game will yield greater cooperation and understanding between these two nuclear powers.  Well,… that’s probably not going to happen.  But, here’s an instance where both sides would be happy with a geo-political draw.

The Horseshoe will feature commentary that is primarily political in nature.  That is not to say that the sometimes-interconnected worlds of politics and sports will not merge within the content of blogs designated with our horseshoe logo, but The Horseshoe will offer readers, whose primary interest is in national and foreign matters, an easy to find bookmark within the body of The Bench Jockeys site. 

So, why The Horseshoe? 

• 20^th Century French philosopher, Jean-Pierre Faye theorized that rather than the far left and the far right being on the opposite ends of a linear political continuum, the ideologies begin to resemble one another as extremes are championed.  Thus, the ideological ends draw closer to one another, and correspondingly, away from the middle.   As we look at a horseshoe, the center is further away from the endpoints than the extremes are from one another.  (That, and a lukewarm cup of coffee is the kind of profound analysis you get with a political science scholarship.)
• The Horseshoe remains the iconic image of my beloved Baltimore Colts which were “re-appropriated” to Indianapolis under cover of night by Bob Irsay 27 years ago this week after the Maryland Senate supported legislation on March 27, 1984 allowing the City of Baltimore to seize the Baltimore Colts under reminent domain.  On March 29th, Irsay, fearing a morning raid on the team’s headquarters, accepted a deal to move the team lock, stock and barrel to Indy, hours before the Maryland House of Delegates concurred with the Senate eminent domain legislation.   (A fitting intersection of sports and politics.) 
• Bench jockeys….jockeys ride horses….horses wear horseshoes…..get it?

What in the wide world of sports are we doing in Libya?   If my pre-Hope history is correct, in 2007, then-Illinois Senator Barack Obama was of the opinion that “the president does not have the power under the Constitution to unilaterally authorize a military attack in a situation that does not involve stopping an actual or imminent threat to the nation.”  I suppose one’s opinions may change when you’re the one making the decisions, but Obama’s failure to secure congressional support for this action is not a matter to be taken lightly.

Apparently, the reason the Administration agreed to join in Libya’s fracas was because the “Arab world supported action in Libya.”  Now we learn…. well, maybe, not so much.  According to the Arab League Secretary-General, leadership supported a no-fly zone, not tactical air strikes which could cause civilian casualities.   The question that no one is really considering is:  who is really in this from the Arab World?  Qatar is providing military support and the United Arab Emirates is offering humanitarian aid.  That’s it.  Qatar and the UAE are not necessarily the Arabian version of the Super Friends (that’s a little cartoon reference for those of you who grew up in the 70’s).

Further, President Obama has suggested that this action barely qualifies as a war.  Just like the wealthy girl who gets an invitation to the party because she gives the best presents, the US was apparently included in the Libyan Target Practice E-vite because we had some “unique capabilities.”  Uh,… unique capabilities for starting a war with a Muslim country – which we seem to be pretty good at lately. (I think we are now up to three in the last decade.)  Adm. Mike Mullen has stated, “[We are] leading it now. We’re looking to hand off that leadership in the next few days.”   That’s like playing Old Maid with two other players and you are only holding one card.  At that point, all three players know who is getting stuck with the Old Maid.

So now we have a new operation to fund, “Odyssey Dawn.”  Did they come up with that via some kind of web-based, military operation, random name generator?  What the hell does Odyssey Dawn even mean or convey?   Certainly, it is no more menacing than Operation Delightful Sunrise.  And just to be even-handed, who coined George Bush’s magnum opus, Operation Iraqi Freedom.  Wouldn’t that have been more precisely named, Operation Kill My Father’s Potential Assassinator?

Either way, this is not what an already fractured Congress needs this Spring.