The Bench Jockeys

On August 9^th, The Bench Jockeys wrote about the intriguing connection between professional athletes and their pursuit of political office at the conclusion of their professional careers. http://thebenchjockeys.com/?p=1321

As if on cue, on August 14^th, boxing’s reigning world heavyweight champion Vitali Klitschko announced his plans to run for the presidency of the Ukraine in 2015.  Klitschko, nicknamed “Doctor Ironfist,” makes a formidable foe in any ring and his entre into the political scene in the Ukraine will make for a fascinating sideline once the election heats up.  Malaysian news source The Star followed the good doctor’s announcement by offering an article for its readership on …wait for it…. the connection between professional athletes and political office.  That’s another Pat Riley on the back for The Bench Jockeys who again offer our loyalists insights before the larger media outlets can catch up.

Besides being a great album by Genesis, only two primaries into the nomination process, all the fun is almost over.  Yes, I know that Rick Santorum is still technically in the GOP race, but let’s face facts; he is not going to emerge as the GOP’s 2012 nominee.  That is unless, of course, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney damage each other so badly with assertions and accusations that neither candidate is deemed electable by the party.  Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment is now a distant memory which is surprising since Gingrich uses every opportunity he gets to align his philosophies with those of The Great Communicator.  Gingrich’s goading forced Mitt to take the gloves off in Florida, and I will not be shocked if someone finds himself in a headlock during Florida Part Deux.  Mitt and Newt are making the President’s re-election campaign far too easy.  Painting each other as Read more »

Well, what have we learned in the last 24 hours:  Tigers can lay eggs; Caroline Wozniacki is still a hot property; and Ron Paul is not dead yet.  Let’s start with LSU, shall we?  The LSU Tigers are still trying to score a point in New Orleans.  The beating that ’Bama put on the LSU in the BCS National Championship Game was epic.  LSU managed just five first downs and 92 total yards on a night that was dominated by Alabama’s defense.  But that’s not the whole story.  LSU’s 53 yards of passing was offset by four sacks and resulting in a net passing game of 27 yards and total offense production of Read more »

You know that feeling you get around the 9th round of your Fantasy Football draft?  You’ve assembled your starting team, and may have even selected your Kicker and a back-up or two.  The pickings are getting slim.  You have your re-treads, guys you may never have heard of depending on your level of prep work, some big mouths trying to make a name for themselves, a whole host of back-ups, some injured guys who “could” start if a medical miracle happened, and of course, the long shot.

Reminds me of the current GOP Presidential candidates.  Newt Gingrich is the ultimate re-tread.  Nothing left on the tires except Read more »

October 4, 2011 – It’s been another 2 months and time is running out on the wallflowers waiting for an invitation to join the other Republican hopefuls who are looking to be crowned Prom King (or Queen) in Tampa.  With five states holding primaries in January (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and now Florida), it would appear that everyone who is interested in pursuing the GOP Nomination for the 2012 election has announced his or her candidacy (or better announce soon). 

Although The Bench Jockeys would have enjoyed seeing what Chris Christie brought to the table or listening to Sarah Palin wrangle with Michele Bachmann (meow) during the next round of debates, it appears that we will have to settle for one of these 12 declared candidates.  In version 3.0 of The Bench Jockeys “Odds to Win the GOP Nomination” we have grouped the dirty dozen into quartets.  Unless something absolutely stunning happens, those in the 2^nd Tier (and the bottom half of the 1^st Tier) have some serious work to do in order to get into contention into what is essentially a two horse race.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. Three of them can’t even get invited to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

We are also of the strong opinion – as we stated in version 2.0 – that Marco Rubio is the natural VP selection.  However, Herman Cain’s straw poll victory in Florida clouds that picture a bit.  That being said, we bet that Florida would have selected Rubio in a mano-a-mano match-up between Marco and Herman.

Although we need to get back to blogging about some sports here at The Bench Jockeys, baseball has not started its pennant run, the NFL is still in pre-season mode and tennis’ US Open is not for two weeks.  What has heated up, however, is the race for GOP Presidential Nomination.  The first measuring stick for the candidates, the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, concluded voting last nite.  Michele Bachmann snakes a win in the poll, with Ron Paul finishing second and T-Paw taking show.  But just like kissing your sister, 3rd place is not what Pawlenty was setting his sights on.   Apparently with Tim Pawlenty’s coffers beginning to run dry and his loss to fellow Minnesotian Bachmann, coupled with the entry of Rick Perry into the fray, Tim is pulling up stakes and calling it a campaign.  As a result of this stunner, we have adjusted our top two tiers.  Paul’s second place finish in Iowa, does not move his dial, but Bachmann gets a big uptick and Perry becomes the new #2 to Romney.  For those of you asking, “Where is Mitt?” Ronmey did not compete.

Tier 1

Tier 2

To view Tiers 3 and 4 click here: http://thebenchjockeys.com/2012-gop-nomination-odds-2-0/

The GOP hopefuls will be back at it again in Iowa on August 11^th.   As the candidates size up one another under the watchful eye of FOX News, the Bench Jockeys thought it was time to separate the contenders from the pretenders and develop a tiered chart for easy review.  On this chart, we have maintained our original opening odds from April 12, 2011 along with each candidate’s current odds to win the nomination (as we see it).  A separate designation (A) has been added for those candidate who have officially entered the fracas.

In this iteration of our odds-making, we have winnowed the field and have scratched Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels to reflect their current intentions to remain on the sidelines.  However, if the citizenry truly begins to seek to limit Obama to one term, Read more »

The June 13^th New Hampshire debate, as moderated by John King of CNN, came off as a media-driven attempt to pit Republicans against one another with pointed set-ups calling into question the few issues that separate the candidates.  The seven Republicans who posted in New Hampshire did not take the bait, instead adhering to Ronald Reagan’s 11^th Commandment given from on high in 1966 when Dutch was running for Governor of California– “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.”  King’s failed efforts to “Jerry Springerize” the first meeting of the GOP heavyweights, did  not make for exciting television, but we did learn two things:  1) without a clock to limit answer response times, the GOP candidates will talk your ears off ; and 2) the Republican candidates recognize that the common opponent is Barack Obama.  The media wants them to cannibalize one another, and each of them clearly choose the vegetarian plate.

Each candidate in Manchester is pro-life, strongly anti-union, and anything but Hawkish – with all seven suggesting that American troops need to come home.  Michele Bachmann – who filed her paperwork to run for the Republican nomination earlier today –reminded viewers that as President, she would be making military decisions as Commander-in-Chief an hour after she introduced herself as a tax lawyer.  Not too reassuring.  Ron Paul came off like an angry grandfather drifting from issue to issue, so much so that if he were in the livingroom at a family function instead of a televised debate, his kids would say, “Okay, Dad, that’ll do.”  Gingrich actually sounded the most sure of himself, filled with facts and good detail.  It’s too bad for his supporters that at this point, Newt is playing from two sets down.  Herman Cain and his point-by-point analysis played well in SC, but an encore performance was too much of the same:  no answers, just lots of consultant-speak analysis.  Santorum did not do anything to hurt is bid – read: no change in his long-shot odds.  T-Paw was adequate, but Romney was stronger tonight.  Is Gary Johnson de facto out?

The Plus-Minus breaks down as follows: The Bench Jockeys think Bachmann’s performance tonight knocks out Sarah Palin as a candidate.  Pluses go to Gingrich & Romney.  Minuses goes to Cain & Paul.  Santorum, Pawlenty and Bachmann held serve.

June 9, 2011 – The race for the 2012 GOP nomination is barely out of the starting gate and Newt Gingrich is already coming up lame.  Since Newt threw his hat into the ring less than one month ago (May 11^th), he has tangled with pundits targeting his fidelity, he has dodged an onslaught of intra-party criticism concerning his position on Medicare, he has verbally wrestled with Bob Schieffer on Meet The Press over his $250,000 credit limit at Tiffany’s (which, by the way, is Newt’s business, not America’s), and he been deemed “not a serious candidate” by the mainstream press as he concluded a delightful two week cruise in Turkey and Greece (against the urgings of his political machine).  However, this week’s bombshell is the cherry on the sundae.  Today, all of the top aides working for the Gingrich campaign resigned in a mass exodus, and Gingrich’s entire operation in Iowa is gone along with those persons providing leadership in the other early assessment states of New Hampshire and South Carolina.

It’s no surprise that the Bench Jockey’s oddsmaker’s are reacting very strongly to the implosion in Gingrich’s base of operations by dropping his 2012 GOP Nominations odds to 80:1.  Accordingly, The Bench Jockeys are calling Newt Gingrich all but out of the 2012 Republican Race.  In a true thinking man’s move, former Georgia Governor, Sonny Perdue, was immediately hired by Gingrich rival (and Bench Jockeys’ 3:1 favorite) Tim Pawlenty to assist in T-Paw’s national campaign strategy.  We also feel that Newt’s departure also opens the door for Texas Governor Rick Perry.  Rob Johnson and David Carney – two of Gingrich’s former lead strategists – are FOP (Friends of Perry).  And because Johnson and Carney need to eat, we are giving Gov. Perry’s odds an up-tick.

In the meantime, Gingrich is using Facebook to keep his waning supporters in tow, declaring through social media, “I am committed to running the substantive, solutions-oriented campaign I set out to run earlier this spring.  The campaign begins anew Sunday in Los Angeles.”  Maybe he should also place an ad in the Help Wanted section of The Des Moines Register, oh, and maybe one in the Obituaries.

April 11, 2011  – In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, The Bench Jockeys have scoured the US news outlets, scrutinized birth certificates, examined any number of self-serving PR posts, and by God, done a little hard-nosed research all in the interest of being your one-source stop for the 2012 Presidential Election marathon which began last week with Barack Obama’s declaration of his billion dollar fundraising target.  Tonight, Minnesota’s Tim Pawlenty tossed his hat into the ring.  

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Republican race against Barack Obama.  We have also included a few Independents and a Libertarian just to stay trendy, but we all know that the President will emerge from either the Republican or Democratic ranks.  As additional candidates step into the fray, we will keep you posted with updates and current odds.  When news happens that impacts a particular candidate’s odds of being selected by his/her party, we will tweet about it and post to this page.  Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the Repulican Party’s nomination for the 2012 Presidential Election.

 **For the Independents and Libertarians, odds posted are the odds of winning the presidency. 

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.