The Bench Jockeys

August 6, 2015 – In the immortal words of Keith Jackson, “Whoa Nellie!”  Two hours flew by as the Top 10 Republican candidates (more like 9 plus 1 pretender) danced around a series of pointed questions about their respective positions.  As projected, there was a bit of carnage in the nightcap in Cleveland, but what I did not understand is why would Fox purposely phrase so many questions to make the candidates unlikeable.  They are still cleaning up blood from the wounds inflicted upon Rand Paul this evening courtesy of separate attacks from Trump and Christie.

Fox News Channel moderators Megyn Kelly, Chris Wallace and Bret Baier provided an awkward, chatty opening unfitting for a national discussion.  However, once the rhetoric began to fly, it was clear that Fox was targeting Trump’s candidacy and using their inquiries to expose his weaknesses as a Republican candidate.  That, I can understand.  But as a Fox product, why not have the moderators ask a few questions over the course of the evening that might allow the GOP to gain some support from the undecideds.  In my opinion, the phrasing of the questions by the Fox commentators did not bolster the Republican messaging, but instead made each of them appear weaker.

Right off the bat, Trump’s reluctance to waive the possibility of a 3rd party run set the tone for the debate.  With the independent elephant in the room immediately in play, I would have liked to have seen follow-up questions directed to some of the other candidates about “party versus person” in an effort to further isolate Trump since that was the clearly Fox’s intention. Always playing a hunch, it is interesting to note that during the debate, The Donald was overtly supportive of Jeb Bush – which might be a wise hedge bet.

Not all of the candidates were asked the same questions, but each got a crack at a domestic issue and a foreign policy matter.  Using a +2 to -2 rating for each response given, here is how we scored the candidates.

All of the candidates were confronted with similar opening questions which addressed their perceived weaknesses.  Notably, the candidates did not all receive an equal number of questions: Rand Paul and Chris Christie were severely shortchanged.  Huckabee, Cruz and Christie made the most of their opportunities, while the good doctor Carson looked uneasy and did not shine among the top tier candidates.

We had Marco Rubio as the winner for the evening session, but evangelicals, Huckabee and Cruz were close behind and each of the 2nd place finishers were offered one fewer question.  Trump was surprisingly well-behaved but offered little content.  Jeb Bush did not seem excited about his messaging but he plodded along.  Kasich benefitted from the Ohio home cooking, but did not score many points with the Bench Jockeys.

We are now just over 15 months away from election night 2016.  Much can happen between now and the Iowa Caucus (2/1/16), New Hampshire Primary (2/9/16) and Super Tuesday (3/1/16).  We aim to stay on top of the 2016 election, and accordingly, our odds have been adjusted. Click here http://thebenchjockeys.com/updated-odds-for-2016-presidential-nominations/ for our updates which consider our perceptions from both the early show and the main event.

August 6, 2015 – Against a seemingly empty Cleveland auditorium, the lowest polling Republicans were asked an array of questions by Fox News Channel moderators, Bill Hemmer and Martha MacCallum.  Appropriately, the first round of questions explored each of the candidates’ perceived respective weaknesses.  The moderators then offered targeted queries about the candidates’ opinions on Trump, ISIS, privacy rights, immigration, welfare, Iran, recent decisions of the Supreme Court and Executive power.  In a crafty Fox News spin, many of the questions that were asked considered the candidates’ platforms versus the perceived failures of Barack Obama’s policies.

The Bench Jockeys scored and graded all of the individual responses on a +2 to a -2 scale.  (We will use the same format and assessment tool for this evening’s main course.)  Carly Fiorina was the clear winner this afternoon with a total tally of +7.  On the other side of the spectrum, Rick Perry rambled and seemed disorganized; we deemed him the lowest performer with a total score of -4.  Rick Santorum’s love of country and passion were touching (+6) but he has is long way to go.  Gilmore (+2) and Pataki (+2) did not hurt themselves, but did nothing to help them push forward either.  Bobby Jindal (+5) had the best one liner, stating, “give Bernie Sanders credit, at least he is honest enough to call himself a socialist, Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton are no better.”  Although advocating a widely unpopular position, soft-spoken, Lindsey Graham’s honesty about committing troops to Iraq and Syria to confront ISIS was worth noting; however, the balance of his responsive content was bland (-1).

Bottom line:  Fiorina emerges from the Loser’s Bracket as the most polished, feisty and pointed of the bottom 7.  Depending on the sound bites offered, I would expect her support to surge, but given the early viewing time, she might not convert this impressive effort into votes.

In the meantime, get your popcorn and antacids ready for tonight….

Proposition betting: Odds of seeing someone in a head-lock – 5:2.  Donald Trump exceeding his allotted time on every question – 1:5.  Jeb Bush or Scott Walker closing the gap on Trump by this time next week – 3:2.  Daily double: Odds of either John Kasich or Ben Carson being perceived as the winner this evening – 8:1.

March 7, 2015 – Not one week after The Bench Jockeys released their odds on prospective candidates winning their respective party’s nominations, we already have some changes to make.  Marco Rubio’s poor support at CPAC costs him a bit in our eyes and Scott Walker’s strong showing gives him a boost as we see it.  We expected Ted Cruz to best Walker (which did not happen) and Walker almost toppled Rand Paul in the CPAC straw poll.  As a result, Cruz also slides a smidgen.

However the big story on the Republican side of the aisle was the scuttle-butt from Dr. Carson’s assertions that doing time can  change a man’s sexual orientation.  Are they teaching that now in med school?  I think they might be bringing the leeches back too.

Although quick to apologize, the content of Carson’s mea culpa was not the prescription he needed.  Consequently, we are dropping him down quite a few pegs to the third tier of possible nominees.  Reluctant to announce in the first place, the good doctor may now be rethinking the whole thing, especially as every word he utters will now be parsed by the media.

The beneficiary to Carson’s slip-up may actually be Rubio since the Carson and Rubio camps are not too far apart on many issues.  As a result, we only slightly decreased Marco’s odds in spite of the CPAC straw poll numbers.  Check out this link for the most current odds at  http://thebenchjockeys.com/?p=1556

March 1, 2015 – Quinnipiac University conducted a telephone survey in Iowa during the week of February 16th seeking opinions about the projected field of Democratic candidates for 2016.  The survey involved 619 likely Democratic Caucus participants. The predictable results were released on February 26th.

Democratic Party Iowans overwhelmingly backed Hillary Clinton (61%), with Elizabeth Warren earning runner-up honors at 19%.  Biden placed third with 7%, Sanders was fourth at 5% and Jim Webb finished in fifth at 2%.  Hillary maintains a stronghold on her path to the Democratic Party’s nomination and the odds that The Bench Jockeys have offered (1:7) seem in line with these results.  [For those of you who read The Bench Jockeys and do not gamble, a 1:7 line means that you would have to bet $7 to win just $1.]

Right now, Hillary is just that sure of a lock. What was remarkable is that not one of the 619 Iowans who participated, voted for former Maryland Governor Martin O’Malley.  Not one.  With only six potential candidates, Quinnipiac extended its inquiry to include a question about who the voters would support if their first choice opted not to run.  Even with Hillary out of the picture, O’Malley only secured 3% of the votes.  18 of 619 votes.  Biden (30%) and Warren (23%) were the leading pretenders.  Look for Marty to take a page out of the Bill Clinton playbook and have his Celtic rock band – O’Malley’s March – booked on a few late night talk shows this summer if he cannot gain traction in this incomplete field.

February 28, 2015  - The black smoke has cleared in the Potomac Ballroom of the Gaylord National Convention Center in Oxon Hill, Maryland.  The straw poll of thousands of conservative zealots who attended CPAC this week, has yielded a worthy candidate to go forth and attempt to wrest control of the White House from the Dems.  There was much fire and brimstone cast upon ISIS, common core, Obama’s pending nuclear development deal with Iran, US immigration policy, unbridled government spending and of course, Hillary. However, unlike the selection of a Pope, the results of the CPAC straw poll will not serve to unite a Republican party which – for the most part – does have a common voice.   

I find it ironic that CPAC– a conference which has become the Right’s annual homage to Ronald Reagan and everything he stood for – does not embrace one of the central tenets that ol’ Number 40 championed:  the 11^th Commandment – Thou shall not speak ill of any fellow Republican. 

Whether a Tea bagger, an establishment Republican, a Main Streeter, or a RINO, there is one thing that all Republicans seek…. Read more »

February 27, 2015 – The 2015 sports scene is off and running.  It began with a collective “What the Heck?” as Pete Carroll gift wrapped the Lombardi Trophy for the Pats with the most incomprehensible play call in Superbowl history.  Next, Novak and Serena  gave notice at the Aussie Open that favorites still rule the day in the ATP and WTA.  Last week, the NASCAR season fired-up its real season which began with Joey Logano’s win in Daytona.  This week, the MLB returns to Florida and Arizona as spring games begin.  And just as teams in the NBA and NHL are jockeying for seeding in their respective leagues, and college hoops teams make their final push to be included in the 2015 March Madness bracket, The Bench Jockeys political Hot Stove is heating up for a humdinger of a 2015 in anticipation of general election in 2016 that will chart the future of the United States into the next decade.

In a field as diverse as…. well,… as diverse as a Republican field can be, the Bench Jockeys have released odds for the 2016 nomination.  We will keep this tracker up to date as entrants declare and drop out and as political fortunes rise and fall in the GOP.

This year we have the added pleasure of offering the odds (albeit a bookmaker’s dream) for those vying for the nomination on the Democrat ticket.  Hint:  Hillary Clinton is a presently at 1:7 which will only drift away from a “sure thing” if something surfaces from the investigations involving Benghazi or the foreign government money accepted by the Clinton Foundation. 

We have established the odds for every candidate who has either formed an “exploration committee” or may be jumping (or being pushed) into the Democrat and Republican races for the White House. 

And now,… ladies and gentlemen,… the nation’s first comprehensive oddsmaker lines for the 2016 nomination.

Democrats

* Registered Ind. may run as a Dem.    

♤ Odds updated 3/7/15

Republicans

 ♢ Odds updated 3/7/15

Follow us on Twitter @benchjockeys.

We welcome your comments and feedback and let the posturing begin.

On August 9^th, The Bench Jockeys wrote about the intriguing connection between professional athletes and their pursuit of political office at the conclusion of their professional careers. http://thebenchjockeys.com/?p=1321

As if on cue, on August 14^th, boxing’s reigning world heavyweight champion Vitali Klitschko announced his plans to run for the presidency of the Ukraine in 2015.  Klitschko, nicknamed “Doctor Ironfist,” makes a formidable foe in any ring and his entre into the political scene in the Ukraine will make for a fascinating sideline once the election heats up.  Malaysian news source The Star followed the good doctor’s announcement by offering an article for its readership on …wait for it…. the connection between professional athletes and political office.  That’s another Pat Riley on the back for The Bench Jockeys who again offer our loyalists insights before the larger media outlets can catch up.

Besides being a great album by Genesis, only two primaries into the nomination process, all the fun is almost over.  Yes, I know that Rick Santorum is still technically in the GOP race, but let’s face facts; he is not going to emerge as the GOP’s 2012 nominee.  That is unless, of course, Newt Gingrich and Mitt Romney damage each other so badly with assertions and accusations that neither candidate is deemed electable by the party.  Ronald Reagan’s 11th Commandment is now a distant memory which is surprising since Gingrich uses every opportunity he gets to align his philosophies with those of The Great Communicator.  Gingrich’s goading forced Mitt to take the gloves off in Florida, and I will not be shocked if someone finds himself in a headlock during Florida Part Deux.  Mitt and Newt are making the President’s re-election campaign far too easy.  Painting each other as Read more »

You know that feeling you get around the 9th round of your Fantasy Football draft?  You’ve assembled your starting team, and may have even selected your Kicker and a back-up or two.  The pickings are getting slim.  You have your re-treads, guys you may never have heard of depending on your level of prep work, some big mouths trying to make a name for themselves, a whole host of back-ups, some injured guys who “could” start if a medical miracle happened, and of course, the long shot.

Reminds me of the current GOP Presidential candidates.  Newt Gingrich is the ultimate re-tread.  Nothing left on the tires except Read more »

October 4, 2011 – It’s been another 2 months and time is running out on the wallflowers waiting for an invitation to join the other Republican hopefuls who are looking to be crowned Prom King (or Queen) in Tampa.  With five states holding primaries in January (Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, South Carolina and now Florida), it would appear that everyone who is interested in pursuing the GOP Nomination for the 2012 election has announced his or her candidacy (or better announce soon). 

Although The Bench Jockeys would have enjoyed seeing what Chris Christie brought to the table or listening to Sarah Palin wrangle with Michele Bachmann (meow) during the next round of debates, it appears that we will have to settle for one of these 12 declared candidates.  In version 3.0 of The Bench Jockeys “Odds to Win the GOP Nomination” we have grouped the dirty dozen into quartets.  Unless something absolutely stunning happens, those in the 2^nd Tier (and the bottom half of the 1^st Tier) have some serious work to do in order to get into contention into what is essentially a two horse race.

Tier 1

Tier 2

Tier 3 – Announced candidates with zippy chance of winning. Three of them can’t even get invited to the debate circuit.  Bravo Gary Johnson in leading this rat pack.

We are also of the strong opinion – as we stated in version 2.0 – that Marco Rubio is the natural VP selection.  However, Herman Cain’s straw poll victory in Florida clouds that picture a bit.  That being said, we bet that Florida would have selected Rubio in a mano-a-mano match-up between Marco and Herman.

Sept 8, 2011 – What did we learn from last night’s GOP gab-fest in Simi Valley, Cali?  As far as potential presidential candidates, Mitt Romney looks to be losing his grip on the #1 slot, Rick Perry is gaining ground, Michele Bachmann’s numbers are slipping, Ron Paul is getting older, and no matter how smart Jon Huntsman is, no one is picking him – possibly because of the team he played for last year.  In fact, the whole ranking of GOP hopefuls is not unlike the Fantasy Football draft which 3 of the 4 Bench Jockeys have participated in for the last 20 years and which took place at the exact same time as the Republican debate.  Not a coincidence.

Last night, while DVRing the debate, the stars aligned to allow yours truly to snake Ray Rice as the 6^th pick of the draft.  6^th!  Although I had to change draft strategies on the fly, I am thrilled with the opportunity to own Ray-Ray through the 2012 election.   Interestingly, four game-tested QBs were selected in the first 13 picks, as a significant percentage of the owners did not want to be saddled with an inexperienced leader at the reigns.  Does that perhaps portend the proclivities of the populace?

However, the more intriguing development was the way Jamaal Charles (touted by the media as a top five selection) plummeted all the way to pick #11.  He was the fantasy equivalent of Newt Gingrich – chock full of spin and promise but ultimately dropping off of the radar when the doubts started to surface.  The media can try to establish the market, but a discerning and involved public understands far more than the pabulum that it is fed.   As I watched the post-mortem on the debate, I was positively disgusted at the manner in which a purportedly unbiased media portrayed each candidate as hero or villain depending on the particular leanings of each pundit.  Make no mistake, the media control the message far better and far more effectively than any campaign manager.  The media has the forum and the capacity to bombard the airways with any sound bite, whether favorable or devastating to a candidate, relative to any subject matter.  The only way that a voter can make a truly informed decision is through an individualized analysis, and honestly, who has the time to rifle through the interwebs to fact-check every candidate?  No one.  And that’s exactly what the media counts on.

So open up wide, America.  CNN, NBC and FOX will keep feeding you their agendas and you can just keep swallowing or, maybe, just maybe, you will come to the voting booths on November 6, 2012 with a well-researched portfolio of facts, data and trend analysis where you can formulate your own decisions about the leadership of this great country.

Growing up, what little boy didn’t want to be a pirate?  Life on the high seas, wearing whatever you wanted, pillaging, and doing as you pleased.  And the best part, hunting for lost treasure.

In today’s ever-perilous economic times, fortunes are spent every day, some for good cause, some for fun, and some a complete waste of money.  Take for example the Gang of 12 “Super Committee”. In theory, a solid idea. With Washington being more dysfunctional than ever before (is that even possible?) 6 Blues and 6 Reds hashing out a plan to get us out of the Grand Canyon of debt and deficit spending sounds like a good idea, right?  But wait, I know my memory is a tad weak, but didn’t we just undertake the very same process with the Bowles-Simpson Deficit Reduction Committee last November?  Hmmm – 3 Donkeys, 3 Elephants reaching consensus on how to get us out of debt and deficit spending?  Sound familar?  Now where could that confounded report be?  I picture it in the same secret giant warehouse where the Ark of the Lost Covenant was stored in Raiders of the Lost Ark.  I bet we could also find the Knights of Templar Treasure there, a few Roswell alien bodies, maybe the real Dead Sea Scrolls.

Although we need to get back to blogging about some sports here at The Bench Jockeys, baseball has not started its pennant run, the NFL is still in pre-season mode and tennis’ US Open is not for two weeks.  What has heated up, however, is the race for GOP Presidential Nomination.  The first measuring stick for the candidates, the Ames Iowa Straw Poll, concluded voting last nite.  Michele Bachmann snakes a win in the poll, with Ron Paul finishing second and T-Paw taking show.  But just like kissing your sister, 3rd place is not what Pawlenty was setting his sights on.   Apparently with Tim Pawlenty’s coffers beginning to run dry and his loss to fellow Minnesotian Bachmann, coupled with the entry of Rick Perry into the fray, Tim is pulling up stakes and calling it a campaign.  As a result of this stunner, we have adjusted our top two tiers.  Paul’s second place finish in Iowa, does not move his dial, but Bachmann gets a big uptick and Perry becomes the new #2 to Romney.  For those of you asking, “Where is Mitt?” Ronmey did not compete.

Tier 1

Tier 2

To view Tiers 3 and 4 click here: http://thebenchjockeys.com/2012-gop-nomination-odds-2-0/

The GOP hopefuls will be back at it again in Iowa on August 11^th.   As the candidates size up one another under the watchful eye of FOX News, the Bench Jockeys thought it was time to separate the contenders from the pretenders and develop a tiered chart for easy review.  On this chart, we have maintained our original opening odds from April 12, 2011 along with each candidate’s current odds to win the nomination (as we see it).  A separate designation (A) has been added for those candidate who have officially entered the fracas.

In this iteration of our odds-making, we have winnowed the field and have scratched Donald Trump, Mike Huckabee, Lindsey Graham, Haley Barbour and Mitch Daniels to reflect their current intentions to remain on the sidelines.  However, if the citizenry truly begins to seek to limit Obama to one term, Read more »

A very quiet but steadily growing international military presence has begun to develop in the world in a region other than the Middle East or Northern Africa, but thus far, it has gone virtually noticed.  In this looming conflict, Russia, Canada and Norway have already deployed troops and constructed command centers.  The US and Denmark will also be involved in this battle, but both countries are playing close to the vest so as not to shift popular attention to this emerging ‘hotspot.’

Global warming (or some other polar climate changing condition for those of you who do not buy into the whole global warming argument) is creating a shipping lane along the northern coasts of Norway and Russia during the summer months, something that has not existed since the Ice Age.  The Eurasian portion of the route, called the Northeast Passage (or the Northern Sea Route) is the polar equivalent of the Holy Grail for oceanic transport companies.  Transit along this passageway reduces the sailing distance between Rotterdam and Yokohama (two of the world’s most well-developed ports) from 11,200 nautical miles to 6,500 nautical miles and cuts 40% off of the shipping costs.  Historically, goods flowing from Rotterdam to Yokohama were shipped via the Atlantic, into the Mediterranean, through the Suez Canal, past the Somalian pirates, around India and through Indonesia.  With the potential Northern Sea Route, the geo-political landscape greatly changes.

According to United Nations data, over the past three decades, temperatures above the Arctic Circle have risen at about twice the rate of the global average, and Arctic sea ice contracted to its smallest area on record in 2009, covering 22 percent less than the previous low in September 2005.  To the West, Canada and the US are already partial beneficiaries of a melting Arctic as the Northwest Passage from Seattle to Rotterdam saves shipping companies equipped to tackle the icy waters of Canada 2000 nautical miles and allows them to avoid the Panama Canal.  The fly in this ointment:  Canada is already claiming control of the entirety of the Northwest Passage.

But control of the sea passage is not the only high stakes angle in play along the Arctic waters.  According to the US Geological Survey, the Arctic accounts for 1/10^th of the world’s known conventional oil reserves and 25% of the undiscovered reserves.  According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, China is well-aware of the resource upside of global warming and has designated significant resources in constructing an Arctic research laboratory and conducting polar studies.  Russia’s NATO ambassador has stated that it would “not be defeated” in the “fight for resources” in the Arctic region  Folks, notice the word choice?  Those are military terms.

The US supported a revolution in Panama and spent more on the Panama Canal than it had on any construction project the Nation’s history.  Egypt actually enslaved its own people to construct the Suez Canal.  The Northwest and Northeast Passages are critically important to global transportation and the energy resource fronts and there will be conflict over control and access.  A new oil rush is coming,… and if 25% of the world’s reserves are in the Arctic, you can bet the US will be there,… providing some humanitarian support.

During the initial days of Operation Odyssey Dawn, the Bench Jockeys wrote about our take on President Obama’s decision to partner with NATO forces in supporting air strikes in Libya.  (See http://thebenchjockeys.com/2011/03/22/odyssey-dawn-whats-that-flower-you-have-on/  and http://thebenchjockeys.com/2011/04/05/butler-fails-to-execute-while-us-may-be-executing-to-fail/ )  Now over 100 days into what was deemed a “limited” operation in Libya, we are still asking:  What is the objective of our military involvement in Libya?

Both Democrats and Republicans oppose the intervention for an array of reasons:

• the cost of the effort,
• the potential for escalation and the US long-term role in a prolonged civil war,
• the message it sends to other countries about the US definition of sovereignty, and
• the lack of defined objectives

But the true Congressional opposition lies in the potential for unchecked military action in the Executive Branch by the weakening of the War Powers Resolution of 1973 (WPR).  By soft-peddling the President’s actions in Libya, the Administration has Read more »

The June 13^th New Hampshire debate, as moderated by John King of CNN, came off as a media-driven attempt to pit Republicans against one another with pointed set-ups calling into question the few issues that separate the candidates.  The seven Republicans who posted in New Hampshire did not take the bait, instead adhering to Ronald Reagan’s 11^th Commandment given from on high in 1966 when Dutch was running for Governor of California– “Thou shalt not speak ill of any fellow Republican.”  King’s failed efforts to “Jerry Springerize” the first meeting of the GOP heavyweights, did  not make for exciting television, but we did learn two things:  1) without a clock to limit answer response times, the GOP candidates will talk your ears off ; and 2) the Republican candidates recognize that the common opponent is Barack Obama.  The media wants them to cannibalize one another, and each of them clearly choose the vegetarian plate.

Each candidate in Manchester is pro-life, strongly anti-union, and anything but Hawkish – with all seven suggesting that American troops need to come home.  Michele Bachmann – who filed her paperwork to run for the Republican nomination earlier today –reminded viewers that as President, she would be making military decisions as Commander-in-Chief an hour after she introduced herself as a tax lawyer.  Not too reassuring.  Ron Paul came off like an angry grandfather drifting from issue to issue, so much so that if he were in the livingroom at a family function instead of a televised debate, his kids would say, “Okay, Dad, that’ll do.”  Gingrich actually sounded the most sure of himself, filled with facts and good detail.  It’s too bad for his supporters that at this point, Newt is playing from two sets down.  Herman Cain and his point-by-point analysis played well in SC, but an encore performance was too much of the same:  no answers, just lots of consultant-speak analysis.  Santorum did not do anything to hurt is bid – read: no change in his long-shot odds.  T-Paw was adequate, but Romney was stronger tonight.  Is Gary Johnson de facto out?

The Plus-Minus breaks down as follows: The Bench Jockeys think Bachmann’s performance tonight knocks out Sarah Palin as a candidate.  Pluses go to Gingrich & Romney.  Minuses goes to Cain & Paul.  Santorum, Pawlenty and Bachmann held serve.

June 9, 2011 – The race for the 2012 GOP nomination is barely out of the starting gate and Newt Gingrich is already coming up lame.  Since Newt threw his hat into the ring less than one month ago (May 11^th), he has tangled with pundits targeting his fidelity, he has dodged an onslaught of intra-party criticism concerning his position on Medicare, he has verbally wrestled with Bob Schieffer on Meet The Press over his $250,000 credit limit at Tiffany’s (which, by the way, is Newt’s business, not America’s), and he been deemed “not a serious candidate” by the mainstream press as he concluded a delightful two week cruise in Turkey and Greece (against the urgings of his political machine).  However, this week’s bombshell is the cherry on the sundae.  Today, all of the top aides working for the Gingrich campaign resigned in a mass exodus, and Gingrich’s entire operation in Iowa is gone along with those persons providing leadership in the other early assessment states of New Hampshire and South Carolina.

It’s no surprise that the Bench Jockey’s oddsmaker’s are reacting very strongly to the implosion in Gingrich’s base of operations by dropping his 2012 GOP Nominations odds to 80:1.  Accordingly, The Bench Jockeys are calling Newt Gingrich all but out of the 2012 Republican Race.  In a true thinking man’s move, former Georgia Governor, Sonny Perdue, was immediately hired by Gingrich rival (and Bench Jockeys’ 3:1 favorite) Tim Pawlenty to assist in T-Paw’s national campaign strategy.  We also feel that Newt’s departure also opens the door for Texas Governor Rick Perry.  Rob Johnson and David Carney – two of Gingrich’s former lead strategists – are FOP (Friends of Perry).  And because Johnson and Carney need to eat, we are giving Gov. Perry’s odds an up-tick.

In the meantime, Gingrich is using Facebook to keep his waning supporters in tow, declaring through social media, “I am committed to running the substantive, solutions-oriented campaign I set out to run earlier this spring.  The campaign begins anew Sunday in Los Angeles.”  Maybe he should also place an ad in the Help Wanted section of The Des Moines Register, oh, and maybe one in the Obituaries.

May 22 – Although the rapture did not occur yesterday, another viable candidate from the Republican field was carried away from consideration.

With Barbour, Huckabee, and Trump already standing on the sidelines, Indiana Governor Mitch Daniels is the latest to decline to square off with the remaining Republican candidates in an effort to wrestle the White House away from President Obama.

The Bench Jockeys thought that Daniels had a legitimate chance to secure the nomination as an 8:1 contender – the third highest ratio from our oddsmaking team.  Citing Read more »

Never one to shy away from the media, Donald Trump, has turned off the Klieg light on his potential run for the Republican nomination.  With his usual bluster, The Donald stated, “I will not be running for president as much as I’d like to,” but then opined, “I maintain the strong conviction that if I were to run, I would be able to win the primary and, ultimately, the general election.”  So if he wanted to run and he thought he would win:  a) why not run, and b) why end the speculation before the 2012 race is even off the ground?  He surely could have milked the political pronouncement to throw his toupee into the ring into a made-for-tv event like LeBron’s axis-altering decision to move to South Beach.

Although we only considered him a fringe player in terms of actual candidacy for the Republican nomination, we did fear Read more »